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Post by Ranch Dressing on Jan 27, 2015 11:21:41 GMT -5
Also need to guard against the recent history of Georgetown basketball which is to peak in January/February, only to fall apart in March. JTIII needs to really dig deep in his tool kit and figure out a way to keep everyone motivated and pushing through February and into March with the same focus and intensity. Alas, I am jumping ahead a bit... This isn't even accurate as the Cuse blowout at Verizon was in March, the 2008 and 2010 BE final runs were in March, etc. There are no guarantees come tournament time, and we have learned that if we can't defend consistently, we are in danger of being upset. Are you actually trying to argue that Georgetown's performance and results in March has been on par with the rest of their regular seasons? Simple way to assess is to look at our NCAA seeding going back to the 2008 tournament and compare to the round we lost and the seed of the team that beat us. I think you will find pretty good evidence of a March swoon. 2-3 years of underperformance can be rationalized by bad match-ups, injuries, etc. But 6-7 years is a trend that needs to be addressed by the staff with corrective action, as I noted above.
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Jan 27, 2015 11:36:36 GMT -5
This isn't even accurate as the Cuse blowout at Verizon was in March, the 2008 and 2010 BE final runs were in March, etc. There are no guarantees come tournament time, and we have learned that if we can't defend consistently, we are in danger of being upset. Are you actually trying to argue that Georgetown's performance and results in March has been on par with the rest of their regular seasons? Simple way to assess is to look at our NCAA seeding going back to the 2008 tournament and compare to the round we lost and the seed of the team that beat us. I think you will find pretty good evidence of a March swoon. 2-3 years of underperformance can be rationalized by bad match-ups, injuries, etc. But 6-7 years is a trend that needs to be addressed by the staff with corrective action, as I noted above. My point is that your suggestion that there is some magic to the calendar isn't backed up by any evidence. The problem isn't the month of March, it has been the NCAA tournament and only the NCAA tournament, which happens to fall mostly in the month of March. What to make of the tournament performances is a separate question I wasn't trying to bring up, but to me the "failure to peak/JTIII has NCAA problems" is a really a story about two bizarre lackluster performances: Ohio and FGCU. None of the other defeats since 2007 (Davidson, VCU, NC State) has any magic about it--we lost to teams that, though not seeded accordingly, we know were close to or just as good (NC State), as good or better (Davidson), or better (VCU) than the Hoyas teams they were playing. The Ohio loss was about a JTIII team that was bad on defense in general giving up 53% 3-point shooting and 58% shooting at the wrong time. The FGCU loss also involved an undersized opponent--at least the 4th time that has happened to us in 6 years--but was still inexcusable for a good defensive team. I do think JTIII was the victim a bit of his own success in 2013 because that team frankly accomplished more than its talent really should have permitted and wasn't a top 8 team in the country night-in-night-out, but we were still way better than FGCU. Anyway, I digress. This is a Xavier thread. Still, the tournament committee, should we get there, owes us one. We are long overdue for an easy draw.
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Post by JohnnyJones on Jan 27, 2015 11:51:53 GMT -5
What to make of the tournament performances is a separate question I wasn't trying to bring up, but to me the "failure to peak/JTIII has NCAA problems" is a really a story about two bizarre lackluster performances: Ohio and FGCU. None of the other defeats since 2007 (Davidson, VCU, NC State) has any magic about it--we lost to teams that, though not seeded accordingly, we know were close to or just as good (NC State), as good or better (Davidson), or better (VCU) than the Hoyas teams they were playing. I agree with this 100% and this analysis often gets lost in the headline of Gtown upsets to double digit seeds. My only quibble is I disagree with the reference to Davidson being as good or better that the '08 team. In my opinion the '08 team was better than Davidson.
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Jan 27, 2015 12:12:59 GMT -5
I agree with this 100% and this analysis often gets lost in the headline of Gtown upsets to double digit seeds. My only quibble is I disagree with the reference to Davidson being as good or better that the '08 team. In my opinion the '08 team was better than Davidson. Steph Curry turns out to have been not only one of the best college players in recent memory, but also one of the best pros. Getting drawn against a future NBA All-Star for a second-round road game is one of the most ridiculous things that has ever happened to a Big East champion in college basketball history.
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hoyasaxa2003
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jan 27, 2015 12:33:59 GMT -5
Steph Curry turns out to have been not only one of the best college players in recent memory, but also one of the best pros. Getting drawn against a future NBA All-Star for a second-round road game is one of the most ridiculous things that has ever happened to a Big East champion in college basketball history. And, it was essentially a home game for Davidson. Davidson finished on KenPom that year one spot ahead of Georgetown. They were a very good team (we were too, but it was a bad draw).
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Cambridge
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Post by Cambridge on Jan 27, 2015 13:06:57 GMT -5
And, it was essentially a home game for Davidson. Davidson finished on KenPom that year one spot ahead of Georgetown. They were a very good team (we were too, but it was a bad draw). Exactly...not only did we draw a very well coached team with a future NBA all-star (MVP candidate, perhaps), but we played them in their backyard. That Davidson team had just beaten a pretty good seven seed Gonzaga squad 82-76 and went on to blow out three seed Wisconsin 73-56, before falling to the eventual tournament champion Kansas 59-57.
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aristides
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Post by aristides on Jan 27, 2015 13:23:28 GMT -5
You guys are dishing out a lot of negative vibes prior to tip-off tonight.
My wish list is pretty simple. I'd like to see Smith get the better of Stainbrook...something along the lines of how Hibbert humiliated Gray in the Big East Championship game (see what I did there).
And for the Hoyas defense to show up tonight. Okay, and a healthy Peak and Trawick. That is all
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Cambridge
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Post by Cambridge on Jan 27, 2015 13:49:38 GMT -5
Looking at Xavier on kenpom: - They work quickly, averaging about 17 seconds per possession (2nd fastest in BE) and are pretty good at avoiding turnovers - only losing the ball on 16.4% of possessions (5th in BE).
- They pound the paint. Over 54% of their points come from inside the arc (2nd highest in the BE). You can see that reflected in the fact that their front court of Stainbrook, Reynolds Bluiett, Farr all use a high number of possessions and put up very good offensive ratings (Farr is the lowest and somewhat of an outlier at 90.4, with Stainbrook the top at 127.4 and the rest all above 115). And their bigs are big, the roster has three key players over 6'10".
- Despite how big their front court is, they don't play all that "big." For example, for a team that relies on its front court so heavily, they are surprisingly mediocre at offensive rebounding (8th in BE). They also get very few blocks (last in the BE), and don't seem to hassle shooters very much in the paint (giving up 50.2% shooting - 8th worst in BE). However, they are pretty good at grabbing the defensive board.
- They shoot the ball well, with an eFG% of 52% (2nd best in the BE). This is driven, in part, by the fact that their offense is focused on the paint. And while they only get 23% of their points off threes (2nd lowest in the BE), watch out for Myles Davis on the wing as he hits threes at a 42% rate and has put up a team high 83 attempts. Bluiett (25/78 or 32%), JP Macura (17/53 or 32%) and Abell (35/83 or 41%) also shoot pretty well from outside (although all have cooled off a lot since conference play began). If you are going to give up a three, best case is if it is Dee Davis (17/60 or 28% on the year, but even worse in conference play) or James Farr (8/30 or 27%).
- They get to the line at a pretty good clip. As you can imagine Stainbrook and Bluiett are both very good at drawing fouls and both are good from the line (about 75%). If you are going to foul any free throw shooters, look to James Farr (48%) and Jalen Reynolds (62%).
- That being said, they are kind of a mess defensively. They give up the second highest eFG% in the BE at 51.3%, and seem to be equally bad defending in the paint and from beyond the arc.
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Jan 27, 2015 14:44:54 GMT -5
I suspect many of us didn't even see or don't well remember the details of the New Years Eve game because a) it was New Years Eve, and b) it was hideous and frustrating to watch. I think we can stipulate going forward that if we have to play 10pm NYE road games, we aren't going to win them. I'm fine with that. I'd like to see us expose "Road" Xavier, which has been a bad team.
I assume the streets are clear, etc. in DC? Given the recent momentum, the reasonable start time, and the new lofty top 25 ranking, I would hope this one stirs up as good a weeknight crowd as we're going to see all year long.
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DanMcQ
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Post by DanMcQ on Jan 27, 2015 14:50:13 GMT -5
Don't forget the Saxa, Paper, Scissors promo too.
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Post by williambraskyiii on Jan 27, 2015 14:54:17 GMT -5
I suspect many of us didn't even see or don't well remember the details of the New Years Eve game because a) it was New Years Eve, and b) it was hideous and frustrating to watch. I think we can stipulate going forward that if we have to play 10pm NYE road games, we aren't going to win them. I'm fine with that. I'd like to see us expose "Road" Xavier, which has been a bad team. I assume the streets are clear, etc. in DC? Given the recent momentum, the reasonable start time, and the new lofty top 25 ranking, I would hope this one stirs up as good a weeknight crowd as we're going to see all year long. I wouldn't count on it. Whenever they offer last minute discounted ticket promos like the one I got in my inbox last night at 8pm, I assume that means there are a lot of empty 100-level seats. Not to go all thebin on the ticket office, but maybe offering the promos a few days in advance would increase the likelihood of boosting attendance. I'm not at the stage in my life where I can easily audible with less than 24 hrs notice.
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joey0403p
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Post by joey0403p on Jan 27, 2015 14:59:42 GMT -5
Big game tonight. Revenge, staying in the rankings for longer than a week, setting up potential high seed for bet and NCAA.
And developing consistency.
Hope we have the full roster.
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Jan 27, 2015 15:19:12 GMT -5
And, it was essentially a home game for Davidson. Davidson finished on KenPom that year one spot ahead of Georgetown. They were a very good team (we were too, but it was a bad draw). I hate blaming the refs, but: PFs: GU 27; D 20 We did shoot ourselves on the foot with FTs, but it had to do with the fouls and Hack-a-Mack. FTs: GU 8 of 17; D 24 of 30
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Just Cos
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Post by Just Cos on Jan 27, 2015 15:35:55 GMT -5
And, it was essentially a home game for Davidson. Davidson finished on KenPom that year one spot ahead of Georgetown. They were a very good team (we were too, but it was a bad draw). I hate blaming the refs, but: PFs: GU 27; D 20 We did shoot ourselves on the foot with FTs, but it had to do with the fouls and Hack-a-Mack. FTs: GU 8 of 17; D 24 of 30 I don't even know what game you guys are talking about...nope didn't happen. Let's beat Xavier and that oaf Stainbrook. The last time we played them there were so many factors that are not in play now (e.g. NYE game, first conference game for freshmen, first conference road game, DSR couldn't hit the side of a barn, we were still discussing how much run Hayes should get) that you can't even compare the two games. Protect home court and our #1 position in the standings.
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Jan 27, 2015 15:47:31 GMT -5
I suspect many of us didn't even see or don't well remember the details of the New Years Eve game because a) it was New Years Eve, and b) it was hideous and frustrating to watch. I think we can stipulate going forward that if we have to play 10pm NYE road games, we aren't going to win them. I'm fine with that. I'd like to see us expose "Road" Xavier, which has been a bad team. I assume the streets are clear, etc. in DC? Given the recent momentum, the reasonable start time, and the new lofty top 25 ranking, I would hope this one stirs up as good a weeknight crowd as we're going to see all year long. I wouldn't count on it. Whenever they offer last minute discounted ticket promos like the one I got in my inbox last night at 8pm, I assume that means there are a lot of empty 100-level seats. Not to go all thebin on the ticket office, but maybe offering the promos a few days in advance would increase the likelihood of boosting attendance. I'm not at the stage in my life where I can easily audible with less than 24 hrs notice. Shame on you. You should be a season ticket holder. The very idea that you're relying on hearing about ticket promos to drive your decision about whether to attend? My heart breaks. If Bill Brasky is going to have 4,000 posts on this Board and live in DC but not possess season tickets, the program is in worse condition than I thought. (Child rearing is not an excuse.) Also, the ticket office is going to great lengths. They're running ads about buying tickets for Hoyas home games nationally during every FS1 Hoyas broadcast. It is a little weird being directed in Chicago to call for tickets to the next game, but such is the state of the new Big East.
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Jan 27, 2015 15:48:35 GMT -5
And, it was essentially a home game for Davidson. Davidson finished on KenPom that year one spot ahead of Georgetown. They were a very good team (we were too, but it was a bad draw). Not to go all lawyer on you, but what did you think I meant by "second round ROAD GAME?"
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Jan 27, 2015 15:50:33 GMT -5
I wouldn't count on it. Whenever they offer last minute discounted ticket promos like the one I got in my inbox last night at 8pm, I assume that means there are a lot of empty 100-level seats. Not to go all thebin on the ticket office, but maybe offering the promos a few days in advance would increase the likelihood of boosting attendance. I'm not at the stage in my life where I can easily audible with less than 24 hrs notice. Shame on you. You should be a season ticket holder. The very idea that you're relying on hearing about ticket promos to drive your decision about whether to attend? My heart breaks. If Bill Brasky is going to have 4,000 posts on this Board and live in DC but not possess season tickets, the program is in worse condition than I thought. (Child rearing is not an excuse.) Also, the ticket office is going to great lengths. They're running ads about buying tickets for Hoyas home games nationally during every FS1 Hoyas broadcast. It is a little weird being directed in Chicago to call for tickets to the next game, but such is the state of the new Big East. Somebody from the ticket office is surely reading this Board this afternoon. If so, you need to DM williambraskyiii and figure out what you need to negotiate to put his @ss in a pair of Hoyas seasons tickets today.
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sleepy
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Post by sleepy on Jan 27, 2015 15:55:19 GMT -5
I hope when we lose this game all you bring up our NCAA voodoo feel as ashamed as you should.
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drquigley
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Post by drquigley on Jan 27, 2015 16:00:54 GMT -5
If you want to know how this game will turn out don't look at our last game against Xavier but our last home game against them. I was at that game and it wasn't even close. Now maybe Xavier has some new players but I know that we sure do and they are much better than last year's players. Granted we don't have Markel but please we are so much better than the team that beat Xavier at home by 20 points. Okay so we won't have Traws and Peak so we win by only 15.
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Jan 27, 2015 16:05:26 GMT -5
I hope when we lose this game all you bring up our NCAA voodoo feel as ashamed as you should. Players and coaches need to focus on one game at a time. Message boards wouldn't exist if those were the rules for we deranged fans. In any event, no one was talking about this team making this tournament. We were having a discussion about keeping the team humming into the month of March, which led to a disagreement about whether there was historical evidence that the month of March itself was a problem for the Hoyas, which led into a complete tangent about past tournament issues. No one is jumping ahead of Xavier.
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