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Post by dripple on Dec 16, 2014 13:17:40 GMT -5
Interesting concept: kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/introduction_to_the_pasr_recruiting_modelAccording to it, this is where we stand for future targets who are uncommitted-- 2015 Caleb Swanigan - <1% 2016 Thon Maker - <1% (Leader is UK at 82%) Harry Giles - <1% (Leader is UK at 37%) Temple Gibbs - 12% (Leader is St. John's at 41%) Sacha Killeya-Jones - 10% (Leader is Wake Forest at 51%) Anthony Cowan - 41% (Leader is Georgetown) Kodye Pugh - 72% (Leader is Georgetown)
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Post by daymondmyles on Dec 16, 2014 13:23:00 GMT -5
Wake Forest for SKJ?! Doubtful. I'd give the edge to UVA and UNC. Wake might be last.
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Post by dripple on Dec 16, 2014 13:28:37 GMT -5
114 Sacha Killeya-Jones Wake Forest (51%) Charlotte (16%) East Carolina (13%) Georgetown (10%) Others: Virginia (6%), Saint Joseph's (1%), Notre Dame (1%), VCU (1%), Richmond (1%), Rice (<1%), Virginia Tech (<1%), Old Dominion (<1%), Loyola MD (<1%)
Maybe UNC hasn't offered? I'm sure the probabilities will change when that happens. Model is strongly biased in favor of in-state.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Dec 16, 2014 14:05:27 GMT -5
Interesting. It only gave us an 11% chance to land Govan and had Uconn the overwhelming 89% favorite.
It had us with a 50% chance to land Crawford and Wake only a 16% chance. It had us with a 49% chance to land Franklin Howard and Cuse only a 15% chance.
It gave us a 54% chance to land Derrickson.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Dec 16, 2014 14:21:31 GMT -5
Interesting past players that we were the favorite for that we "missed" on:
Darnell Dodson Pitt(committed to pitt went to Juco, then Kentucky, then Southern Misss, ) 2007 57%
Kris Joseph 2008 63%
Ty Johnson 2010 58%
Myles Davis 2012 31%
Also of note our biggest steal as in lowest% predicted that we actually landed: Mikael Hopkins who was 26% to Kansas as his leader. We only had a 5% chance of landing him.
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Post by dripple on Dec 16, 2014 14:24:27 GMT -5
yeah it's interesting to check this against past commitments. We were favored with Copeland, White, Campbell... but not with Peak.
UNC was favored with DSR... Gtown favored with Porter... very disfavored with Hopkins (KU was in lead... GU had less than 5% chance)
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Dec 16, 2014 14:29:59 GMT -5
114 Sacha Killeya-Jones Wake Forest (51%) Charlotte (16%) East Carolina (13%) Georgetown (10%) Others: Virginia (6%), Saint Joseph's (1%), Notre Dame (1%), VCU (1%), Richmond (1%), Rice (<1%), Virginia Tech (<1%), Old Dominion (<1%), Loyola MD (<1%) Maybe UNC hasn't offered? I'm sure the probabilities will change when that happens. Model is strongly biased in favor of in-state. It's interesting I assume he's using rivals for the offer list, since he's using them for his top 150 rankings. According to Rivals UNC has not offered which explains them not being in there, but UVA has, so surprised they're so low. Is he originally from North Carolina? Because he plays in Virginia, but his favorite reads like he's from Carolina.
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turbohoya
Bulldog (over 250 posts)
Posts: 320
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Post by turbohoya on Dec 16, 2014 14:41:44 GMT -5
Is all this behind a subscription pay-wall? I can't get access...
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SirSaxa
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 15,620
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Post by SirSaxa on Dec 16, 2014 15:04:10 GMT -5
Interesting, but not something I'd bet the farm (or the hilltop) on.
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SFHoya99
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 17,663
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Post by SFHoya99 on Dec 16, 2014 15:59:26 GMT -5
It's not Ken Pom's model, but he's hosting it.
It is frankly pretty simple, based the creator's version of a rational actor model. Which, of course, is all sorts of problematic because people really aren't rational actors. That said, it's regression-based on all sorts of factors and the creator smartly did a probabilistic model rather than a binary, so it has some value.
With any of these models, it's important to know what's in and what's out:
In: Winning %, Close to Home, Facilities, Playing Time, Graduation Rate, History of getting drafted Out: Relationship with staff, offensive / defensive style and fit, any player-specific evaluation of the above elements.
The big key to the model is the fact that the model limits its choices to published lists. I mean, that's smart, but it's also doing the heavy lifting on the accuracy front. But the inputs are obviously adding something as he's pretty accurate to his ranges.
Either way, interesting. And a much better baseline than anything out there.
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Filo
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,906
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Post by Filo on Dec 16, 2014 16:42:22 GMT -5
What are the numbers for Latavious? Think we need to add to that thread.
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Post by Problem of Dog on Dec 16, 2014 17:07:34 GMT -5
Already seen something like this for college football. It's nice and all, but it doesn't really do much to help you figure out which team a kid is going to pick when two or three schools are neck and neck.
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SFHoya99
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 17,663
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Post by SFHoya99 on Dec 16, 2014 18:43:08 GMT -5
Already seen something like this for college football. It's nice and all, but it doesn't really do much to help you figure out which team a kid is going to pick when two or three schools are neck and neck. I think the value is probably highest in understanding about what the real probabilities are. We have a tendency to go a little crazy when we miss on recruits -- but often our chances are a coin flip or worse.
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Post by dripple on Dec 16, 2014 18:55:48 GMT -5
IMO way better than those stupid crystal balls
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Post by BubbleVisionBiff on Dec 16, 2014 21:52:45 GMT -5
Some schools also spell it analytic$.
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Dec 17, 2014 15:32:45 GMT -5
I still wish we had signed Derek Payne.
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Post by hoyalove4ever on Dec 18, 2014 8:27:59 GMT -5
You mean Dwayne Payne? If so, I played against him in high school in the late '90s. I think he was at Spingarn? Cold beast. But it seemed he never got his academics in order. Too bad. I wonder where he is today.
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TC
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 9,428
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Post by TC on Dec 18, 2014 9:07:51 GMT -5
I need to know how this model would have backtested Latavious before supporting it.
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nychoya3
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 2,674
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Post by nychoya3 on Dec 18, 2014 9:10:44 GMT -5
Does the model account for how many times Hoyatalk posters say a particular player fits best at Georgetown?
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chep3
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 2,314
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Post by chep3 on Dec 18, 2014 10:51:29 GMT -5
Does the model account for how many times Hoyatalk posters say a particular player fits best at Georgetown? It's an automatic 0%. I'm going to be really annoyed when the inevitable Jamal Murray or Sacha Killeya-Jones "fits best at Georgetown" lines come out in a few months. That thing needs to be killed more times than Rasputin.
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