jwp91
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,991
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Post by jwp91 on Dec 21, 2014 8:52:36 GMT -5
As an aside, "huge fans" don't "likely" watch the games. Well, I do have quite a bit of international travel in Q1....though I haven't missed a televised game in years.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Dec 21, 2014 9:38:37 GMT -5
Small sample sizes still. It may have been 25 years since Statistics with Winkler, but I am confident that 1/3 of the population is a sufficient sample size to begin drawing some conclusions. I'm just saying in one day we changed your original statistics. We were 8/10 in both Categories then 1 game later we were 6/10 and 7/10 respectively. So it's all fine and well to say this is where we stand, but to understand that it's constantly changing. And that's with out even looking at the fact that the numbers are put up against vastly different types of competition and that those 2 categories are a very small subset of the game.
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Filo
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,906
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Post by Filo on Dec 21, 2014 9:58:32 GMT -5
It's funny, I saw this game as strong evidence that this team can be very, very good, and most of the flaws we exhibited today are completely fixable. The team was dominating Charlotte for much of the game, controlling the boards against a good rebounding team (47% of O boards, 72% of D boards), valuing the ball except for a small stretch of the game (13% TO Rate!), and getting a bunch of easy baskets. We weren't shooting well from three but we ended up strong from the line (77%) and were running and feeding the big man. When Charlotte made runs, what went wrong? During the 7-0 run at the half, we turned the ball over a bunch and gave up an offensive board on a missed FT. But that was a small stretch and he lead was soon back up to 14+ again. So how about the big comeback? Well, a few things drove it: - Hot 3pt Shooting by the Opponent, helping out by
- Continual help on driving players, leading open three point shooters
- Partially caused by both big men being in foul trouble
- Really Editedty transition D
- An amazing about of missed shots.
1. Happens 2. & 4. Seem easily fixable 3. & 5. Still a concern But that's not too bad when you can fix half your issues. Those other two concerns ARE a worry, and the shooting is a really, really big one, but man, there was a lot to like out of the Hoyas today as well. Don't know if 3. or 4. get corrected either. I do feel like 5. will get better. Good post. But for me the biggest concern is 1., caused by 2. Maybe its just looking through a jaundiced eye (is that a mixed metaphor? LOL) but it seems every single JTIII team does this, and gives up a huge amount of open 3s to hot-shooting opponents. Seems like the same issue season-after-season. Don't know if 3. and 4. are going to be corrected either. I am relatively optimistic that the shooting will improve (5.)
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prhoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 23,251
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Post by prhoya on Dec 21, 2014 10:16:27 GMT -5
I'm with you, Filo. The problem is that stubborn JT3 can counter with "we've been one of the top defensive teams for several years under him". I would say to that "you live by the sword, you die by the sword." I'm not going to check back the opponents' numbers for our 6 recent horrible NCAA losses, but I remember making some of those teams look like NBA players and getting some of the most lopsided losses of those seasons in those games. And here is where coaching adjustments come in. When the other team is getting hot from outside, change that defensive scheme getting beaten. It's not enough for JT3 to say "make sure you also guard the perimeter" (and he did yesterday) in a TO huddle. If the other team passes, catches and shoots like yesterday and like Butler did, there is no time for the defensive player to recover from helping inside and who then needs to run to the perimeter to cover.
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DFW HOYA
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,731
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Post by DFW HOYA on Dec 21, 2014 10:19:39 GMT -5
At the end of December, regrettably, this team isn't much better than last year's team. When Josh Smith gets into foul trouble, the front line becomes very average, and any semblance of an offensive game plan goes out the door if DSR can't step it up. When was the last time a backdoor play was seen from the post?
I'm less concerned about Peak and White and more about Copeland and Cameron. If they can't beat out Bowen and Trawick offensively (Copeland averages four shots per game, Cameron three), Georgetown's offensive options will get even more limited once the bench play shrinks during the conference race.
Mikael Hopkins is shooting 37% and that's not getting any better. He has twice as many fouls (35) as field goals (16) this season. When was the last 4/5 shooting so poorly? (Courtland Freeman?)
This team is not going to be where we want them to be in March shooting 34% from three and giving up 14 turnovers a game. There are too many other Big East teams stepping it up of late (St. John's, Seton Hall, Providence, even Creighton) to be self-assured of a top four finish in the BE right now.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Dec 21, 2014 10:39:52 GMT -5
At the end of December, regrettably, this team isn't much better than last year's team. When Josh Smith gets into foul trouble, the front line becomes very average, and any semblance of an offensive game plan goes out the door if DSR can't step it up. When was the last time a backdoor play was seen from the post? I'm less concerned about Peak and White and more about Copeland and Cameron. If they can't beat out Bowen and Trawick offensively (Copeland averages four shots per game, Cameron three), Georgetown's offensive options will get even more limited once the bench play shrinks during the conference race. Mikael Hopkins is shooting 37% and that's not getting any better. He has twice as many fouls (35) as field goals (16) this season. When was the last 4/5 shooting so poorly? (Courtland Freeman?) This team is not going to be where we want them to be in March shooting 34% from three and giving up 14 turnovers a game. There are too many other Big East teams stepping it up of late (St. John's, Seton Hall, Providence, even Creighton) to be self-assured of a top four finish in the BE right now. I actually thought our half-court man offense looked pretty good, mostly because we got three or four back door plays out of the post. It was so good Charlotte had to go zone the rest of the way. As for Smith and DSR, I agree. But virtually any team is going to struggle if its two best offensive weapons do. We aren't alone there. But they both struggled to assert themselves last night and we still beat a decent team. No chance if that happened last year we would have won. So this team is ahead of last year's team in my mind.
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calhoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,351
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Post by calhoya on Dec 21, 2014 10:43:14 GMT -5
At the end of December, regrettably, this team isn't much better than last year's team. When Josh Smith gets into foul trouble, the front line becomes very average, and any semblance of an offensive game plan goes out the door if DSR can't step it up. When was the last time a backdoor play was seen from the post? I'm less concerned about Peak and White and more about Copeland and Cameron. If they can't beat out Bowen and Trawick offensively (Copeland averages four shots per game, Cameron three), Georgetown's offensive options will get even more limited once the bench play shrinks during the conference race. Mikael Hopkins is shooting 37% and that's not getting any better. He has twice as many fouls (35) as field goals (16) this season. When was the last 4/5 shooting so poorly? (Courtland Freeman?) This team is not going to be where we want them to be in March shooting 34% from three and giving up 14 turnovers a game. There are too many other Big East teams stepping it up of late (St. John's, Seton Hall, Providence, even Creighton) to be self-assured of a top four finish in the BE right now. Agree with the overall assessment of the team at this point. Also agree with the statement on Cameron getting more involved in the offense. Watching him yesterday I noted that his defense was decent, certainly on par with most of the freshmen. As for Copeland, he is getting more active each game, but I do not see him as replacing Bowen or Trawick (both critical on defense), but rather as taking minutes from Hopkins at the 4. Right now the team is a long way from where it will need to be and could struggle early in the BE. However, the talent is undeniable. The key--DSR and the post. This team needs more points from the 4-5 positions and it won't happen as long as opponents can pack it in and dare them to win from the outside. DSR is not shooting well. But he really was not a 3 pt guy before either. He is more of a pullup jump shooter from 10-15 out. Hoping that White, Copeland and Cameron can start lighting it up from beyond the arc.
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SFHoya99
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
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Post by SFHoya99 on Dec 21, 2014 11:04:47 GMT -5
Small sample sizes still. It may have been 25 years since Statistics with Winkler, but I am confident that 1/3 of the population is a sufficient sample size to begin drawing some conclusions. I'm not sure about team 3pt %, but individual 3pt % actually takes longer than a season to stabilize. Players simply don't take enough threes to be certain down to the levels of accuracy we are talking about
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Dec 21, 2014 11:19:27 GMT -5
At the end of December, regrettably, this team isn't much better than last year's team. When Josh Smith gets into foul trouble, the front line becomes very average, and any semblance of an offensive game plan goes out the door if DSR can't step it up. When was the last time a backdoor play was seen from the post?I'm less concerned about Peak and White and more about Copeland and Cameron. If they can't beat out Bowen and Trawick offensively (Copeland averages four shots per game, Cameron three), Georgetown's offensive options will get even more limited once the bench play shrinks during the conference race. Mikael Hopkins is shooting 37% and that's not getting any better. He has twice as many fouls (35) as field goals (16) this season. When was the last 4/5 shooting so poorly? (Courtland Freeman?) This team is not going to be where we want them to be in March shooting 34% from three and giving up 14 turnovers a game. There are too many other Big East teams stepping it up of late (St. John's, Seton Hall, Providence, even Creighton) to be self-assured of a top four finish in the BE right now. Um every single game. We had multiple against Radford, We had some against Kansas. We had one of sorts against Charlotte when Josh got double teamed and Copeland cut to the Hoop behind his man's back for a wide open look.
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prhoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 23,251
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Post by prhoya on Dec 21, 2014 12:37:58 GMT -5
At the end of December, regrettably, this team isn't much better than last year's team. When Josh Smith gets into foul trouble, the front line becomes very average, and any semblance of an offensive game plan goes out the door if DSR can't step it up. When was the last time a backdoor play was seen from the post?I'm less concerned about Peak and White and more about Copeland and Cameron. If they can't beat out Bowen and Trawick offensively (Copeland averages four shots per game, Cameron three), Georgetown's offensive options will get even more limited once the bench play shrinks during the conference race. Mikael Hopkins is shooting 37% and that's not getting any better. He has twice as many fouls (35) as field goals (16) this season. When was the last 4/5 shooting so poorly? (Courtland Freeman?) This team is not going to be where we want them to be in March shooting 34% from three and giving up 14 turnovers a game. There are too many other Big East teams stepping it up of late (St. John's, Seton Hall, Providence, even Creighton) to be self-assured of a top four finish in the BE right now. Um every single game. We had multiple against Radford, We had some against Kansas. We had one of sorts against Charlotte when Josh got double teamed and Copeland cut to the Hoop behind his man's back for a wide open look. And White to Hops under the basket for the made dunk.
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