SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Dec 14, 2014 12:04:02 GMT -5
Brilliant logic, Rockhoya. You disagree with me, therefore you are an idiot, therefore you are wrong and I am right. Where do you come up with this stuff? Read what I wrote. I said Copeland has the potential to be a better defender than Hopkins. He does. He's not right now. I said Copeland was a more complete defender excepting rebounding, and I stand by that. Hopkins brings a lot of great defense, but his foul issues and his tendency to overplay 2-3 times a game versus good opponents are big weaknesses. He didn't either versus Radford, but you know, Radford. White doesn't do the flash, but guys don't get by him much, he contests every shot, and he rarely fouls. I don't think the defensive drop-off is what you guys think it is. The poster you were quoting wasn't suggesting that none of the freshman had the POTENTIAL to eventually make a defensive impact like Hop, rather he was suggesting that their defense shouldnt even be in the discussion for eating into Hop's mins this year. Also, you're selling his defensive impact sooo short. First of all, almost every player on every team gets caught out of position at least 2-3 times a game on defense, especially against quality competition. The nature of playing good defense is such that if you are playing textbook defense you will get burned every so often. And that doesn't even speak to the fact that he is in the RIGHT position far more often than anyone else on this team and far more often than a lot of players across the nation. Just because he occasionally messes up doesn't mean he can't contribute positively otherwise. His defense and rebounding and his influence of ending and affecting offensive possession is pretty near-elite, if not elite. It's not really all that debatable, usually I don't use other people to justify my independent thoughts but even the announcers recognize it every game.....cmon man give the dude his credit he's earned it I don't think Hopkins as an elite defender. I don't see that level of impact - for both the reasons I've mentioned and the fact that he simply doesn't intimidate that much near the rim (which honestly, has more to do with his height than anything he can control). Doesn't mean he's not a great defender. Doesn't mean he hasn't worked hard for it. Doesn't mean he doesn't deserve to play. It might mean that his offensive foibles aren't completely overcome by his great defense, which is where this whole discussion started. I think a lot of posters are fine with him playing D and giving back some of it on offense. The question is how much he's worth on D and how much the turnovers and missed shots are worth on O. And how good people think Copeland and White will be this year. I fully admit I'm on the end of the spectrum where I think that a) his defense is very good but we aren't talking Roy Hibbert or Otto Porter here b) his offensive problems are pretty crushing and take up most of his defensive value and c) at some point this year White and/or Copeland are going to be better options at the 4 (and White is darn close if not a better option right now). Aside from the personal observations I've written above, I have to question his impact on D when our D isn't that good (and wasn't last year). Our D was elite with Otto Porter; with or without Whittington. Our D was elite with Roy Hibbert, even with Summers at the 4 and Wallace, Sapp and Freeman as our perimeter defenders. Our D was terrible last year with Hopkins and it's been better this year -- but it doesn't seem to miss that big a beat when he's off the court. I think he's a strong defender; I don't think he's game-changing or elite. I could be wrong -- defense is hard to judge. I will say that if continues to play smart like he did against Radford -- just one utterly moronic forced offensive play -- then I will have no complaints with Hopkins' play. It's the completely avoidable turnovers, the laziness at the free throw line, the slow rotation even though you were looking right at the ball, etc., that annoy me. Everyone commits turnovers, but few players commit to a course of action that has zero chance of succeeding like Hopkins. I know a lot of people think I hate him but I don't. I fully admit that the Hopkins brigade on here frustrates the heck out of me -- so willing to rip apart many players who are better but defend Hopkins irrationally. But Mikael? No -- he seems to try hard and while I think focus on not making dumb decisions is partially an effort thing, it could be that he simply, even after all these years, really can't process the game at the right speed. |
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Dec 14, 2014 12:04:35 GMT -5
The poster you were quoting wasn't suggesting that none of the freshman had the POTENTIAL to eventually make a defensive impact like Hop, rather he was suggesting that their defense shouldnt even be in the discussion for eating into Hop's mins this year. Also, you're selling his defensive impact sooo short. First of all, almost every player on every team gets caught out of position at least 2-3 times a game on defense, especially against quality competition. The nature of playing good defense is such that if you are playing textbook defense you will get burned every so often. And that doesn't even speak to the fact that he is in the RIGHT position far more often than anyone else on this team and far more often than a lot of players across the nation. Just because he occasionally messes up doesn't mean he can't contribute positively otherwise. His defense and rebounding and his influence of ending and affecting offensive possession is pretty near-elite, if not elite. It's not really all that debatable, usually I don't use other people to justify my independent thoughts but even the announcers recognize it every game.....cmon man give the dude his credit he's earned it I don't think Hopkins as an elite defender. I don't see that level of impact - for both the reasons I've mentioned and the fact that he simply doesn't intimidate that much near the rim (which honestly, has more to do with his height than anything he can control). Doesn't mean he's not a great defender. Doesn't mean he hasn't worked hard for it. Doesn't mean he doesn't deserve to play. It might mean that his offensive foibles aren't completely overcome by his great defense, which is where this whole discussion started. I think a lot of posters are fine with him playing D and giving back some of it on offense. The question is how much he's worth on D and how much the turnovers and missed shots are worth on O. And how good people think Copeland and White will be this year. I fully admit I'm on the end of the spectrum where I think that a) his defense is very good but we aren't talking Roy Hibbert or Otto Porter here b) his offensive problems are pretty crushing and take up most of his defensive value and c) at some point this year White and/or Copeland are going to be better options at the 4 (and White is darn close if not a better option right now). Aside from the personal observations I've written above, I have to question his impact on D when our D isn't that good (and wasn't last year). Our D was elite with Otto Porter; with or without Whittington. Our D was elite with Roy Hibbert, even with Summers at the 4 and Wallace, Sapp and Freeman as our perimeter defenders. Our D was terrible last year with Hopkins and it's been better this year -- but it doesn't seem to miss that big a beat when he's off the court. I think he's a strong defender; I don't think he's game-changing or elite. I could be wrong -- defense is hard to judge. I will say that if continues to play smart like he did against Radford -- just one utterly moronic forced offensive play -- then I will have no complaints with Hopkins' play. It's the completely avoidable turnovers, the laziness at the free throw line, the slow rotation even though you were looking right at the ball, etc., that annoy me. Everyone commits turnovers, but few players commit to a course of action that has zero chance of succeeding like Hopkins. I know a lot of people think I hate him but I don't. I fully admit that the Hopkins brigade on here frustrates the heck out of me -- so willing to rip apart many players who are better but defend Hopkins irrationally. But Mikael? No -- he seems to try hard and while I think focus on not making dumb decisions is partially an effort thing, it could be that he simply, even after all these years, really can't process the game at the right speed. And I don't think it's likely he's every going to. |
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Post by cosmopolitanhoya on Dec 14, 2014 12:20:55 GMT -5
i think this season so far shows how important recruiting is, and it also highlights our lack of thereof during the past 4-5 years or so. Before this year's freshmen class during last 5 yrs or so, aside from 2-3 players, every starters on our team that have played chunk of minutes simply because there was just no one else on the team to replace them. Some of those players even after spending 3-4 years still remain at the level of role players on a good team (not gonna throw names, but i am sure you guys know who and who) i'm glad the freshmen class has turned out to be pretty successful so far, and i hope we keep this momentum in recruiting players that will contribute efficiently. They don't have to be 5 stars, keep recruiting those long ones with good stroke and high Bball IQ - if JT2 was known to be the one that produces quality big men, i think JT3 is getting reputation for producing quality forwards  |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2014 13:08:01 GMT -5
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CO_Hoya
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Post by CO_Hoya on Dec 14, 2014 13:19:48 GMT -5
In Defensive Win Shares - I think that's what you meant anyway. So I went to look at the link and Hopkins ranks 1st on the team in Def. Win Shares, but 13th in Off. Win Shares (ahead of only David Allen and Trey Mourning) despite having the 4th most minutes. Meh, I'm not much of a fan of Win Shares so whatever. Having said that, because of his defense I think you've just got to hope Hopkins finally figures out that he's got to be the last option on offense whenever he's on the floor. Stop trying to be senior-year Hank Sims, instead try for senior year Ya-Ya Dia or Victor Shomnick. Would you rather have this season of Hopkins or another season of Lubick? I'll take Hopkins. |
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Dec 14, 2014 13:38:46 GMT -5
I'm not a fan of most completist basketball metrics. I think they are somewhat valuable but the team dynamics are so heavy that they are much less instructive than offensive metrics.
That said, if you go by Win Shares, Paul White has .9 in less minutes than Hopkins -- by that measure White is 50% better overall. Isaac Copeland has the same win shares in 2/3rds of the minutes. If anything, Win Shares makes my point -- playing White and Copeland more and Hopkins less would mean more wins. Even without accounting for the fact that Copeland and White are much more likely to improve.
I think that's overly simplistic, but citing Win Shares isn't helping the overall argument that Hopkins' defense overcomes everything else. Neither are other advanced metrics -- Value Add has Paul White being as valuable so far as Hopkins on defense (and obviously significantly better on offense).
I don't think Hopkins is a bad defender -- I think he's a very good one. I don't think he's anywhere near the class or Roy Hibbert or Otto Porter, but that's no shame. I think his D rebounding is part improvement and part simply playing center -- is it a surprise that when Hopkins and Smith are basically splitting playing center they have similar D reb rates? And I don't think he's a better all around player than some of the alternatives at power forward. He's a role player.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Dec 14, 2014 13:40:20 GMT -5
In Defensive Win Shares - I think that's what you meant anyway. So I went to look at the link and Hopkins ranks 1st on the team in Def. Win Shares, but 13th in Off. Win Shares (ahead of only David Allen and Trey Mourning) despite having the 4th most minutes. Meh, I'm not much of a fan of Win Shares so whatever. Having said that, because of his defense I think you've just got to hope Hopkins finally figures out that he's got to be the last option on offense whenever he's on the floor. Stop trying to be senior-year Hank Sims, instead try for senior year Ya-Ya Dia or Victor Shomnick. Would you rather have this season of Hopkins or another season of Lubick? I'll take Hopkins. Of course I'd rather have this Hopkins than Lubick, especially senior Lubick. But that's not the choice at hand. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2014 14:18:46 GMT -5
In Defensive Win Shares - I think that's what you meant anyway. So I went to look at the link and Hopkins ranks 1st on the team in Def. Win Shares, but 13th in Off. Win Shares (ahead of only David Allen and Trey Mourning) despite having the 4th most minutes. Meh, I'm not much of a fan of Win Shares so whatever. Having said that, because of his defense I think you've just got to hope Hopkins finally figures out that he's got to be the last option on offense whenever he's on the floor. Stop trying to be senior-year Hank Sims, instead try for senior year Ya-Ya Dia or Victor Shomnick. Would you rather have this season of Hopkins or another season of Lubick? I'll take Hopkins. The .6 number is the total also but yeah it’s whatever just shows his impact isn’t negative. You can see that with your own eyes though I don’t see him trying to act like Sims in any way tbh. He only averages 4 shots a game. Seems to be focused on his role and he’s been good in it. Nobody comes close to what he brings on the boards. We need what he brings in that area and he’s the only real rim protector we have. |
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Dec 14, 2014 15:05:35 GMT -5
In Defensive Win Shares - I think that's what you meant anyway. So I went to look at the link and Hopkins ranks 1st on the team in Def. Win Shares, but 13th in Off. Win Shares (ahead of only David Allen and Trey Mourning) despite having the 4th most minutes. Meh, I'm not much of a fan of Win Shares so whatever. Having said that, because of his defense I think you've just got to hope Hopkins finally figures out that he's got to be the last option on offense whenever he's on the floor. Stop trying to be senior-year Hank Sims, instead try for senior year Ya-Ya Dia or Victor Shomnick. Would you rather have this season of Hopkins or another season of Lubick? I'll take Hopkins. The .6 number is the total also but yeah it’s whatever just shows his impact isn’t negative. You can see that with your own eyes though I don’t see him trying to act like Sims in any way tbh. He only averages 4 shots a game. Seems to be focused on his role and he’s been good in it. Nobody comes close to what he brings on the boards. We need what he brings in that area and he’s the only real rim protector we have. You have to measure it against alternatives. |
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rockhoya
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Post by rockhoya on Dec 14, 2014 15:10:31 GMT -5
The .6 number is the total also but yeah it’s whatever just shows his impact isn’t negative. You can see that with your own eyes though I don’t see him trying to act like Sims in any way tbh. He only averages 4 shots a game. Seems to be focused on his role and he’s been good in it. Nobody comes close to what he brings on the boards. We need what he brings in that area and he’s the only real rim protector we have. You have to measure it against alternatives. What do you mean by that? You mean the alternatives to benching the only rim protector, best rebounder and position post defender, and best weak-side post defender on this team? |
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Dec 14, 2014 15:21:30 GMT -5
Here's the thing, which has more upside; a player improving on defense or a player becoming more invisible on offense?
Yes, we could improve by Hop turning it over less and not giving away possessions. But we should be hoping for Ike and Paul to improve on D. The latter makes us better and the former makes us less worse. The efficiency impact might be similar short term but the ceiling of the team is drastically different.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2014 15:42:25 GMT -5
Here's the thing, which has more upside; a player improving on defense or a player becoming more invisible on offense? Yes, we could improve by Hop turning it over less and not giving away possessions. But we should be hoping for Ike and Paul to improve on D. The latter makes us better and the former makes us less worse. The efficiency impact might be similar short term but the ceiling of the team is drastically different. You kind of lost me but neither Ike or Paul are big enough or strong enough to defend 4’s on the regular. Also in 36mpg combined they grab 4 boards between them. Hopkins rebounds at nearly 3 times their rate, he blocks nearly 3 times as many shots. No reason to cut a player like that’s minutes. You’re also seriously downplaying the effect of good defense on a game. What he brings on that side of the ball neither one of those guys can duplicate. Also the guy is 9th on the team in Shots per minute it’s not like he’s out there hunting shots.. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2014 15:48:58 GMT -5
The .6 number is the total also but yeah it’s whatever just shows his impact isn’t negative. You can see that with your own eyes though I don’t see him trying to act like Sims in any way tbh. He only averages 4 shots a game. Seems to be focused on his role and he’s been good in it. Nobody comes close to what he brings on the boards. We need what he brings in that area and he’s the only real rim protector we have. You have to measure it against alternatives. I am... |
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Dec 14, 2014 16:25:42 GMT -5
You have to measure it against alternatives. I am... Perhaps you are, but that metric isn't. Just because a player is positive in that metric doesn't necessarily make them the best option. Rebooting a bit: * I think all players need to be evaluated in totality -- it is possible to have an offensive star who is so bad on defense that they are not a good player and vice versa. I'm not necessarily saying that is about about Hopkins, just that I don't think there's a scenario where a player's defense or rebounding or whatever is so good that you can ignore any level of offensive ineptitude. Just because he's our best defender does not necessarily mean he must play. * When we evaluate a player we must do it relative to the alternatives. There is no simply "His defense outweighs his offense." If Hopkins doesn't play, someone else is out there. The proper evaluation is whether Hopkins' defense and offense outweigh Copeland and/or White's offense and defense. (Or whomever you'd put at PF). Or if you wanted to do it for center, Josh Smith or Bradley Hayes. * In my original post, I specifically didn't mention minutes shifts simply because that's not the only solution. If Hopkins can get his turnovers down and make a layup, he becomes a much more useful player. But at some point, he have to choose between Paul White's 50% 3pt shooting & 2pt FG and the spacing that comes with it, the ballhandling, the entry passes, the coast to coast play and the strong defense he gives and Hopkins defense and poor offense for some of those PF minutes. Or perhaps Copeland explodes. * If I had to bet, I'd bet on the freshmen overtaking some of the upperclassmen in total play. This doesn't mean Hopkins doesn't play at all, but watching our offense, it's clear that until Hopkins and Trawick find their correct role, our offense is going to struggle. If the freshmen improve their D, and they clearly bring more on O.... |
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hoyainspirit
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Post by hoyainspirit on Dec 14, 2014 16:37:25 GMT -5
To his credit, Hopkins has cut down on his turnover rate in the past few games, it seem to me. His defense and rebounding have been sterling. I still cringe we he dribbles, though. I'm just so conditioned to something bad happening. Would love to see his net point stats this yr. Hoya Prospectus was great...
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2014 17:49:32 GMT -5
Perhaps you are, but that metric isn't. Just because a player is positive in that metric doesn't necessarily make them the best option. Rebooting a bit: * I think all players need to be evaluated in totality -- it is possible to have an offensive star who is so bad on defense that they are not a good player and vice versa. I'm not necessarily saying that is about about Hopkins, just that I don't think there's a scenario where a player's defense or rebounding or whatever is so good that you can ignore any level of offensive ineptitude. Just because he's our best defender does not necessarily mean he must play. * When we evaluate a player we must do it relative to the alternatives. There is no simply "His defense outweighs his offense." If Hopkins doesn't play, someone else is out there. The proper evaluation is whether Hopkins' defense and offense outweigh Copeland and/or White's offense and defense. (Or whomever you'd put at PF). Or if you wanted to do it for center, Josh Smith or Bradley Hayes. * In my original post, I specifically didn't mention minutes shifts simply because that's not the only solution. If Hopkins can get his turnovers down and make a layup, he becomes a much more useful player. But at some point, he have to choose between Paul White's 50% 3pt shooting & 2pt FG and the spacing that comes with it, the ballhandling, the entry passes, the coast to coast play and the strong defense he gives and Hopkins defense and poor offense for some of those PF minutes. Or perhaps Copeland explodes. * If I had to bet, I'd bet on the freshmen overtaking some of the upperclassmen in total play. This doesn't mean Hopkins doesn't play at all, but watching our offense, it's clear that until Hopkins and Trawick find their correct role, our offense is going to struggle. If the freshmen improve their D, and they clearly bring more on O.... I don’t know what your pushing for but imo Hop has earned his minutes and none of the Freshman can come close to his impact on D.. We’ve lost 3 games this year and none of them were lost on the offensive side of the ball so hard for me to say replace + defender so we can get more O out on the court.. |
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Dec 14, 2014 19:39:25 GMT -5
It's this sentiment I disagree with. Not something specific to Hopkins, but the idea that he's earned his minutes versus some standard of just being good. You earn your minutes by being better than the competition. I don't care how good a player is, if other players are better, they get the minutes.
There seems to be this idea that Hopkins has put in his time, improved, and he's good on D, so he should play a ton regardless of the other options III has. If White or Copeland is playing better, they should play more. If Hayes suddenly outplays Hopkins and Smith, it doesn't matter how much Smith has worked to get back in shape, Hayes should get the majority of time.
We'll just have to disagree. I'm not sure there's anything I can say to convince you, but I will note the number you introduced into the discussion says that Paul White is not too far off... and that Paul's offensive advantage over Hopkins is larger than his defensive disadvantage.
Wait, what?
Versus Wisconsin, Hopkins was 1-5, turned the ball over three times and committed five fouls. That was a one possession game late. You can argue that his defense overcomes his offensive issues, but can't deny that versus a league average player, Hopkins' offense (including his positives -- 2 assists and 2 o boards) cost us about 4 points versus a league average offensive player. League average -- not funnel the ball to a hot DSR or any one of our other players well above a 100 efficiency. That 4 points could be six.
And even that's without accounting for the realization that so much of the bad shots and turnovers could have been avoided. He committed 5 fouls, too -- in a game where Whiskey shot 27 FTs.
Versus Butler, Hopkins had a shockingly similar line: three turnovers, 1-5 shooting. And yes, he cost us about 4 points in that game, too. He also committed four fouls and Butler shot 21 FTs.
And against Kansas, he had a much better statistical game: he had four assists and four offensive boards. Of course, he was also 1-5 on easy shots and I'm not sure how he only got credited with one TO. There's not much gap versus a league average there (and only maybe two points versus a hot hand). But his misses were still just terrible misses. Also, five fouls against a team that only stayed in the game in the first half by going to the line.
So yeah, it's hard to pin the Kansas loss on Komrade's offense. But you're kidding yourself if you think Hopkins' offense wasn't a key contributor to the Wisconsin and Butler losses.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Dec 14, 2014 20:17:45 GMT -5
Agreed SF. I'm baffled by this discussion. We need Hop's defense and rebounding right now but the moment you're confident White is average in those two departments, he's the guy. It's not like you can tell Hop to lock down the opponent's best player. He's a good defender who hustles. He'll still get minutes backing up at center but there's no reason to think he should hold on to his PF minutes because he's above average at half the game and non-existent at the other half.
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aristides
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Post by aristides on Dec 14, 2014 21:28:06 GMT -5
As good as White has been, I can't buy an argument that he can deliver the same kind of defense and rebounding that Hop is currently providing. It's not about who is the better player, it's about how the pieces fit. I've been frustrated with Hopkins over the years, but this season he's really filling a need for us as a defensive and rebounding specialist.
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tashoya
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Post by tashoya on Dec 14, 2014 23:19:55 GMT -5
Hop is in a tough spot. His most important role will continue to be as a backup 5. As such, I can easily see PW starting by January over him. This team needs offense with certain lineups. Campbell isn't far enough along to get big minutes. Jabril hasn't been Jabril yet. And DSR is struggling a bit. White opens up options outside of Joshua getting double or triple teamed that Hop can't. I expect White to get, at worst, the second most minutes on the squad. He helps Josh at the 5 and Hop at the 5 and DSR at the 1. Coupled with his ability to help with zone D and he's going to get every opportunity to contribute. If Peak can play better D and can consistently contribute on the offensive side of things too (10 or so a game), that might change. But, as of now, the team is better with White on the floor. I can also see him starting over Trawick right now. His handle is better and he's more of a threat on offense. I can see a transitional lineup of DSR, Peak, White, Hop, and Smith with White playing more of a 2 bringing the ball up the floor but a SF once in the half court. As of right now, there's huge competition for minutes. Both White and Bowen are challenging Trawick for minutes. PW is also challenging Hop for minutes but isn't quite there yet. At some point this season, if things go well, PW and Copeland will be challenging Hop's minutes at the 4. These are great problems to have as a fan but really difficult for our players. It could be an issue in terms of team chemistry but the flip side of that coin is that maybe everyone steps up their game. Meritocracy is unforgiving but it's what needs to be the rule.
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