Is Now The Time To Consider Tweaking The Starting Lineup?

[SFHoya99]

Also, you absolutely should not sit Josh when he is well-rested. Let's take a scenario where Josh can play 7 minutes and needs five minutes of rest.

Starting him, he gets: 7 on, 5 off, 7 on, 1 off -- Halftime -- 7 on, 5 off, 7 on, 1 off -- or 28 minutes.
Benching him, he gets: 5 off, 7 on, 5 off, 1 on -- Halftime -- 5 off, 7 on, 5 off, 1 on -- or 16 minutes.

Obviously, these numbers are not exact and there are scenarios where benching him gets him the exact same time, but the key here is there's never a scenario where benching Josh gives you more minutes than starting him.

This is because by benching Josh to start, you "waste" that first rest -- he's already rested.

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I get the idea that you have a scorer coming off the bench and all that, but it just seems like a ridiculous machination to keep Hopkins starting.

[aleutianhoya]

Jan 12, 2015 11:34:17 GMT -5 EtomicB said:

Jan 12, 2015 10:52:04 GMT -5 johnnysnowplow said:

I agree with your overall point I think, but it seems your argument is actually contradicting that. If Smith is coming off the bench, how is he any less "rested" that at the start of the game? He's still at 100%. The difference is the other team is no longer at 100% and may also have started bringing guys off the bench. You're only getting 20-25 minutes from him no matter what. There's always going to be at least a couple 4-5 minute stretches where he's not in the game. Why not use the start of the game as one of those stretches? And now he's not sitting periods where he's "well rested" because he hasn't picked up early fouls. You're distributing 100% of his energy and fouls over 35-36 minutes instead of 40 minutes. Hell, why not leave him on the bench to start the second half too? Worked against Creighton.

+1

Well stated Snowplow..

It worked against Indiana too..He came in at the 14:04 mark and immediately got fouled and hit both FT's.. Next possession he scored a lay up..

It has to be noted the team was down 10 @ half and was down 10 when he got in so the other players held serve.

In the Creighton game he came in @ the 13:15 mark and immediately scores a layup, pulls 2 def boards and an assist..

While he was out the other players pushed a 2 point lead to 7..

The logical move is to start White but is it really the best move?

My only point, really, is that if you sit him at the beginning of the game, it's five minutes (or however long he's out) that he has no opportunity to play. And there's no reason (unless it's foul trouble) to limit his opportunity to positively affect the game. Sure, he's just as well rested when he does come in, but if he's basically coming in at the first time out anyway (under your premise), he could come in there anyway under mine. I absolutely concede that if he picks up two quick fouls in the first half, then it doesn't matter when he plays.

The only other point I'd make with Josh is that I think we are waiting, generally, way too long to sub him out. Once he's noticeably tired, it's too late, because he's already picked up the silly foul due to fatigue, etc.

[richfame]

Jan 11, 2015 20:56:01 GMT -5 EtomicB said:

Jan 11, 2015 19:25:26 GMT -5 rockhoya said:

Okay, I inderstand that but my argument is how do you blame one player for our starts? I'd argue that without Josh we'd start even slower. Of all the starters to replace I'm not sure how you could point to him (or DSR if you give him a pas) and not to Hop or Trawick. Conventional thinking says that if an inability to score points at the beginning of games is the problem, you don't dole out a starting lineup with even less offensive talent to fix the problem. If anything you replace Hop and see how things work out and if someone can match his defensive contribution.

We're not blaming Smith for the slow starts.. This shouldn't be viewed as a punishment to him..

Any line-up that separates Smith & Hopkins is good by me but it has to be said that if the starting line-up is DSR, Trawick, Peak, White & Smith the team will not have one offensive threat on it's bench..

If that line-up doesn't work then where does the staff go? Why fire all your bullets now?

Most of us acknowledge that DSR needs to become more assertive offensively, Peak too for that matter so put the pressure on them to lead the team from the start..

TRE at point and DSR at off guard

Trawick as the vinny Johnson 6man microwave roll.

Done.

[aleutianhoya]

Jan 12, 2015 12:06:45 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

Also, you absolutely should not sit Josh when he is well-rested. Let's take a scenario where Josh can play 7 minutes and needs five minutes of rest.

Starting him, he gets: 7 on, 5 off, 7 on, 1 off -- Halftime -- 7 on, 5 off, 7 on, 1 off -- or 28 minutes.
Benching him, he gets: 5 off, 7 on, 5 off, 1 on -- Halftime -- 5 off, 7 on, 5 off, 1 on -- or 16 minutes.

Obviously, these numbers are not exact and there are scenarios where benching him gets him the exact same time, but the key here is there's never a scenario where benching Josh gives you more minutes than starting him.

This is because by benching Josh to start, you "waste" that first rest -- he's already rested.

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I get the idea that you have a scorer coming off the bench and all that, but it just seems like a ridiculous machination to keep Hopkins starting.

Right. With math and stuff as proof.

[EtomicB]

Jan 12, 2015 11:51:07 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

Jan 12, 2015 11:34:17 GMT -5 EtomicB said:

+1


The logical move is to start White but is it really the best move?

Yes. You guys are talking yourselves into something because of the ridiculous restriction of starting Hopkins. It's not the worst idea if you hold that element to be an unchangeable constant, but that's kind of silly. Bench Hopkins, play him as little as possible, win more games.

It doesn't need to be hard.

Do you really think Hopkins will play less the 15 mpg the rest of the way?

I'll admit a big part of my liking Smith coming off the bench is that it'll give me something to feel good about on the bench..

If things are going good or bad, I know now I'll be cringing when I see Hopkins heading to the scorers table.. With Smith not at all..

[SFHoya99]

Jan 12, 2015 12:36:38 GMT -5 EtomicB said:

Jan 12, 2015 11:51:07 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

Yes. You guys are talking yourselves into something because of the ridiculous restriction of starting Hopkins. It's not the worst idea if you hold that element to be an unchangeable constant, but that's kind of silly. Bench Hopkins, play him as little as possible, win more games.

It doesn't need to be hard.

Do you really think Hopkins will play less the 15 mpg the rest of the way?

I'll admit a big part of my liking Smith coming off the bench is that it'll give me something to feel good about on the bench..

If things are going good or bad, I know now I'll be cringing when I see Hopkins heading to the scorers table.. With Smith not at all..

Do I think he will? No.

But I think there are a whole bunch of games where he could and should but won't.

[hoyainspirit]

Jan 12, 2015 13:12:40 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

Jan 12, 2015 12:36:38 GMT -5 EtomicB said:

Do you really think Hopkins will play less the 15 mpg the rest of the way?

I'll admit a big part of my liking Smith coming off the bench is that it'll give me something to feel good about on the bench..

If things are going good or bad, I know now I'll be cringing when I see Hopkins heading to the scorers table.. With Smith not at all..

Do I think he will? No.

But I think there are a whole bunch of games where he could and should but won't.

I do think (hope) we'll see some adjustment in Hopkins mins. Watch the guy come out and have a fantastic game against DePaul...and this discussion starts all over again....

[EtomicB]

Jan 12, 2015 12:06:45 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

Also, you absolutely should not sit Josh when he is well-rested. Let's take a scenario where Josh can play 7 minutes and needs five minutes of rest.

Starting him, he gets: 7 on, 5 off, 7 on, 1 off -- Halftime -- 7 on, 5 off, 7 on, 1 off -- or 28 minutes.
Benching him, he gets: 5 off, 7 on, 5 off, 1 on -- Halftime -- 5 off, 7 on, 5 off, 1 on -- or 16 minutes.

Obviously, these numbers are not exact and there are scenarios where benching him gets him the exact same time, but the key here is there's never a scenario where benching Josh gives you more minutes than starting him.

This is because by benching Josh to start, you "waste" that first rest -- he's already rested.

--------------

I get the idea that you have a scorer coming off the bench and all that, but it just seems like a ridiculous machination to keep Hopkins starting.

I don't buy this SF because he goes to the bench due to foul trouble much more often than fatigue..

If Josh played the 28mpg you posted above I'd never suggest he come off the bench but the reality is he doesn't..

Honestly my best hope is that JT3 starts White and allows Copeland to back him up not Hopkins..

If Hopkins only backs up Smith then his minutes will be cut by 3 or 4 on avg if Smith can get his normal 22..

[SFHoya99]

Jan 12, 2015 15:18:05 GMT -5 EtomicB said:

Jan 12, 2015 12:06:45 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

Also, you absolutely should not sit Josh when he is well-rested. Let's take a scenario where Josh can play 7 minutes and needs five minutes of rest.

Starting him, he gets: 7 on, 5 off, 7 on, 1 off -- Halftime -- 7 on, 5 off, 7 on, 1 off -- or 28 minutes.
Benching him, he gets: 5 off, 7 on, 5 off, 1 on -- Halftime -- 5 off, 7 on, 5 off, 1 on -- or 16 minutes.

Obviously, these numbers are not exact and there are scenarios where benching him gets him the exact same time, but the key here is there's never a scenario where benching Josh gives you more minutes than starting him.

This is because by benching Josh to start, you "waste" that first rest -- he's already rested.

--------------

I get the idea that you have a scorer coming off the bench and all that, but it just seems like a ridiculous machination to keep Hopkins starting.

I don't buy this SF because he goes to the bench due to foul trouble much more often than fatigue..

If Josh played the 28mpg you posted above I'd never suggest he come off the bench but the reality is he doesn't..

Honestly my best hope is that JT3 starts White and allows Copeland to back him up not Hopkins..

If Hopkins only backs up Smith then his minutes will be cut by 3 or 4 on avg if Smith can get his normal 22..

That's true, but my point is still true: there's never a scenario where benching Josh gives you more minutes than starting him.

[prhoya]

The following takes into consideration that JT3 will not tweak the starting lineup:

If we're to believe (and I do ; ) ) our mod Dan and the amount of games he catches in person, he says that Hops is shooting (for whatever reason) 3-pointers in warm-ups before the games and that he is pretty accurate. Notwithstanding the absurdity of practicing a shot that he's never going to take in-game instead of practicing the FTs, hooks and layups that he is actually going to shoot, and if he's good from 3 and so far so horrible in the lane (0 for 3 FGs and 3 TOs in BE) in the beginning of games, why not design an emergency play for him to shoot the 3 if the shot clock is under 10 seconds, no one is open to shoot, and Josh is being mugged inside? I suggest the following play: Josh is at C double-teamed and the rest of the guys are around the perimeter with a sagging defense. The other team is daring us to shoot, but keeping an eye out for DSR. Hops is near the FT area and sets up to receive the ball behind the arc there. The other team will ignore him or guard him from 7 to 10 ft away . I say have him take the Hibbert 3. Why not? It cannot get worse than the 0% he has so far. If he makes it, we will have a different start to the game. If he misses, it's par for the course for him and the team, but with a possibility for someone to off.rb. The key is shooting the shot that he practices and feels good about. Let's see what happens. Why not?

[bicentennial]

I absolutely love this!!! He can't make a free throw so now he should be a three point specialist. I would suggest he shoot free throws in practice until he is making 75% and only then does he get to start. Once he can make free throws, I suggest from the high post he takes one step and shoots a free throw when his defender is sagging to block the pass to Smith.

[EtomicB]

Jan 12, 2015 16:30:38 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

Jan 12, 2015 15:18:05 GMT -5 EtomicB said:

I don't buy this SF because he goes to the bench due to foul trouble much more often than fatigue..

If Josh played the 28mpg you posted above I'd never suggest he come off the bench but the reality is he doesn't..

Honestly my best hope is that JT3 starts White and allows Copeland to back him up not Hopkins..

If Hopkins only backs up Smith then his minutes will be cut by 3 or 4 on avg if Smith can get his normal 22..

That's true, but my point is still true: there's never a scenario where benching Josh gives you more minutes than starting him.

I'm still not feeling your math though SF, it's too scripted..

Why couldn't JT3 send him to the scorers table @ the 17 minute mark and allow him to play till the 11 minute tv break? That's approx 6 minutes right there..

Bring him back in after the 7 minute tv break and let him play as long as he can, if he makes it to the half, he'll have played approx. 13 minutes in the half..

If he can only play 4 or 5 minutes after the 7 minute break he'll still be at approx. 10 minutes for the half which is about half his season average..

Is this scenario so far fetched?


I went thru the GU Hoyas play by play stats in the Creighton game where Josh didn't start the 2nd half.. He played over 11 minutes in the 2nd half despite not playing for the 1st 6:45 of the half..

The 11+ minutes were also more minutes than he played in the 1st half, a half in which he started.. His total minutes for this game was 20 minutes..

[prhoya]

Jan 12, 2015 19:15:22 GMT -5 bicentennial said:

I absolutely love this!!! He can't make a free throw so now he should be a three point specialist. I would suggest he shoot free throws in practice until he is making 75% and only then does he get to start. Once he can make free throws, I suggest from the high post he takes one step and shoots a free throw when his defender is sagging to block the pass to Smith.

I couldn't believe it when Dan posted about MH's 3-pointers in warm-ups. Why was he practicing that shot and that he made 6 in a row?! But, as I mentioned, if it's true and JT3 keeps starting Hops, why not? I would rather see it instead of the usual screw-ups or the upcoming Hack-a-Hops in the lane. Surprise us!

[rockhoya]

Jan 12, 2015 19:26:07 GMT -5 prhoya said:

Jan 12, 2015 19:15:22 GMT -5 bicentennial said:

I absolutely love this!!! He can't make a free throw so now he should be a three point specialist. I would suggest he shoot free throws in practice until he is making 75% and only then does he get to start. Once he can make free throws, I suggest from the high post he takes one step and shoots a free throw when his defender is sagging to block the pass to Smith.

I couldn't believe it when Dan posted about MH's 3-pointers in warm-ups. Why was he practicing that shot and that he made 6 in a row?! But, as I mentioned, if it's true and JT3 keeps starting Hops, why not? I would rather see it instead of the usual screw-ups or the upcoming Hack-a-Hops in the lane. Surprise us!

I don't think it's even that he's necessarily practicing that shot, it's just that he's had range since hs and layup lines usually alternate between finishing at the rim and shooting jumpers, all of our players tend to follow the same model. But I agree, even though they aren't good shots they are probably better than getting sent to the line or blocked repeatedly. It's not like it'll even be contested, but Ike should be given the opportunity to show what he can do on defense because he's become more consistent in terms of poise and understanding what is going on on the court with every game.

[dreamhoya]

No. Young team. They will get better. JTIII was a great coach against Indiana, he's still a great coach.

[DanMcQ]

I wasn't making it up: Sir Saxa saw it too. Hop actually has a nice stroke from deep. When nobody is guarding him. In warm ups. Hasn't yet translated to game action, but I dare say he might hit a higher percentage than within 5 feet of the hoop in traffic.

[prhoya]

Jan 12, 2015 22:11:18 GMT -5 DanMcQ said:

I wasn't making it up: Sir Saxa saw it too. Hop actually has a nice stroke from deep. When nobody is guarding him. In warm ups. Hasn't yet translated to game action, but I dare say he might hit a higher percentage than within 5 feet of the hoop in traffic.

Case closed! If Hops is going to start, then let's see a wide-open Hibbert 3 from him before the first official time-out. Let's see what happens. Why not?!

[HometownHoya]

I think 3 days is too long of a layoff, some people here may be going insane.

[GIGAFAN99]

I think Hopkins minutes should go something like this

0 minutes on, 20 minutes off --Halftime -- 0 minutes on, 20 minutes off

Then bring him off the bench and he'll be fresh to hit a couple of threes.

[calhoya]

More Copeland. More Bowen. More Tre. Some Reggie. Less or no Hopkins/Smith together and less Peak. Still not certain what Peak is doing lately to justify his 2nd most minutes per game on the court when Tre is showing to be a better shooter and distributor. I know Peak's defense has improved ( still far from good though) but his shot is worse and when Peak and Trawick share the court with Hopkins and Smith you have four guys trying to shoot from within 5 feet of the basket. Not exactly hard to figure out how to defend that lineup.

Also not certain what Bowen has done to virtually disappear from the lineup after several key performances earlier in the year. With Peak, Trawick and DSR getting so much time and Tre getting more he seems to be the odd man out. He is at his best in a pressure game but the Hoyas have stopped using full court pressure very often. The record in BE play does not suggest that the current lineup is working real well. Of the Hoyas two wins they have had one strong half. In the two losses they have played poorly for long stretches.