NCAA Regional XC meet 2014

[Nevada Hoya]

The men and women will attempt to automatically qualify for the NCAA XC championship meet this Friday at Penn State. The women should win easily, although coach might rest some of the runners. Even if they don't place in the top two in this race, they have done well enough to punch their ticket to Indiana. They might run at at sub-maximal level in this race. Their depth would carry them through. The men are favored to pick up 2nd place behind Villanova, although being on the Penn State course, the Nittany Lions may be tough as they beat the Hoyas earlier on the same course. The men have improved as the season has progressed. Again, like the women the men should have accumulated enough points to make the NCAAs as an at-large, although the goal of this race should be to get the auto bid.

[birdman]

Penn State had a really strong showing at the B1G Championships, finishing 3rd behind Wisconsin and Michigan with <28 second spread between their scorers.

Princeton scored 30 in winning Heps and had a 22 second spread.

Certainly teams to watch for sure at Regionals, but the Hoyas looked really strong at Big East.

[Nevada Hoya]

This is how letsrun.com analyzes the men's race,so obviously Penn State and Princeton are flies in the ointment. If they both beat the Hoyas, it may be hard for the Hoyas to advance. If the Hoyas finish 3rd, they should still go as an at-large team.

NCAA Regional weekend means different things to different cross country teams. For a top-ranked squad swimming in at-large points, such as #1 Colorado or #3 Syracuse, the goal is to make it through the 10k race expending as little energy as possible with the knowledge that a far more important 10k race awaits just eight days later.

For squads on the bubble, such as #23 Tulsa, #26 Oklahoma and unranked Iowa State (but #33 in terms of votes), who will likely be battling it out for just two spots in the Midwest, the goal is to run their best race of the season — anything less and they likely will miss the Big Dance. And for some teams — like any unranked team in the Northeast or a team like Boise State or Arizona State in the West — the goal is to run to the best of their ability and pray that a team with points has an off day, pushing them into NCAAs. Regional weekend is equal parts nerve-wracking and exciting, the penultimate step in a season-long quest.

Part of the difficulty of following Regional weekend is that it’s hard to definitively say who is in or who is out of the NCAA Championships because at-large berths are determined in part by the results of Regionals. Move a team up or down a few places from their projected finish and things change. Do that in every region — there are nine in total — and you produce a ton of different scenarios, each one selecting teams to NCAAs in a slightly different order.

I can’t tell you for sure who the qualifiers for NCAAs will be until the races have been run, but I can tell you the qualifiers given a certain set of results at Regionals. Harvard PhD candidate (and former Duke runner) Bo Waggoner has written a computer program that determines the qualifiers to NCAAs based on seasonal and Regional results. He was kind enough to share the program with LetsRun.com last year and has done so again in 2014. Below, you will find the list of men’s teams who will qualify for NCAAs if the current USTFCCCA Regional Rankings hold.

Automatically selected (projected to finish top-two at Regionals)
1 Wisconsin
2 Michigan
3 Villanova
4 Georgetown
5 Oklahoma State
6 Tulsa
7 Colorado
8 NAU
9 Syracuse
10 Iona
11 Florida State
12 Mississippi
13 Arkansas
14 Texas
15 Furman
16 NC State
17 Oregon
18 Portland

At-large teams*
19 Stanford
20 UNC
21 Virginia
22 Washington
23 UCLA
24 New Mexico
25 BYU
26 Air Force
27 Colorado State
28 Southern Utah
29 Providence
30 Eastern Kentucky
31 Oklahoma

*It was necessary to make a few assumptions based on whether a school was was running an A team or a B team at a certain meet. Check out this article for those assumptions, as well as the logic behind why each team was selected.

Total bids by region

7: Mountain
5: Southeast, West
3: Northeast, Midwest
2: South, Mid-Atlantic, South Central, Great Lakes

Ranked Teams That Will Be Left Out

#20 Indiana
#24 Penn State
#27 Michigan State
(Indiana and Michigan State would be the first two teams out)


Northeast Regional

Columbia: Jake Sienko (#1 runner, 6th overall); Nico Composto (#3 runner, 10th overall); John Gregorek (#4 runner, 23rd overall); Joe Kotran (#5 runner, 30th overall). People who are criticizing first-year coach Dan Ireland need to wait a few years as it’s hard to replace four of your top five.

(Dan Ireland, Hoya grad)

Mid-Atlantic Regional

Blue and White Golf Course, University Park, Pennsylvania
Start times: 12 p.m. ET (women); 1 p.m. ET (men)
The Princeton men won Heps comfortably but they're far from a lock to make NCAAs.

The Princeton men won Heps comfortably but they’re far from a lock to make NCAAs. (Photo courtesy of Sami Aziz)

USTFCCCA Regional Rankings

#7 Villanova
#14 Georgetown
#24 Penn State
Princeton (1st unranked team, #31 in votes)
Navy
Penn
Bucknell

Penn State and Princeton are in near-identical situations. Both teams ran poorly during the regular season (11th at Notre Dame, 9th at Pre-Nats for Penn State; 8th at Notre Dame, 23rd at Wisconsin for Princeton) before running their best races of the season at conference (Penn State was third at Big 10s behind heavyweights Wisconsin and Michigan; Princeton routed the Heps with 30 points). However, none of the teams Penn State or Princeton beat at their conference meets are projected to make it to NCAAs. That means it will be exceedingly difficult for the Nittany Lions or Tigers to garner an at-large spot. They almost certainly need to be top two to go dancing.

It’s seems almost impossible that Villanova, which has qualified for seven straight NCAA Championships and has three strong front runners in Patrick Tiernan, Sam McEntee and Jordy Williamsz (who went 1-2-3 at Big East), misses out on an auto spot. That leaves Georgetown, which was second at Big Easts (behind Nova) and third at Pre-Nats as the team that Penn State and Princeton need to beat. With wins over Furman, Tulsa, Texas, Mississippi, NC State and Colorado State, the Hoyas should have enough points to go even if they get third. The big question at this meet is: can one (or both) of Penn State and Princeton leapfrog Georgetown into NCAAs? Obviously if Penn State or Princeton finishes second, it will go automatically. If Georgetown blows up and takes fourth, both Penn State and Princeton could make it (one automatically, one pushed in by Georgetown). The most likely scenario is still Georgetown finishing second (shutting out Penn State and Princeton) but if the Hoyas falter and Penn State/Princeton run like they did at their conference meets, the Mid-Atlantic could end up sending three or four teams.

[Nevada Hoya]

The women's regional analysis from letsrun.com:

Automatically selected (projected to finish top-two at Regionals)

1 Michigan State
2 Wisconsin
3 Georgetown
4 West Virginia
5 Iowa State
6 Minnesota
7 New Mexico
8 Colorado
9 Iona
10 Syracuse
11 Florida State
12 Vanderbilt
13 Arkansas
14 Baylor
15 UNC
16 Virginia
17 Oregon
18 Stanford

At-large selections

19 Michigan
20 Ohio State
21 NC State
22 Washington
23 Arizona State
24 Boise State
25 UCLA
26 Toledo
27 Dartmouth
28 Boston College
29 Virginia Tech
30 BYU
31 Notre Dame

Total bids by region

6: Great Lakes, West
4: Southeast, Northeast
3: Mountain
2: South, South Central, Midwest, Mid-Atlantic

Ranked Teams That Will Be Left Out

#28 Princeton
#30 Villanova
(Unranked Providence (#32 in votes), Villanova and Princeton would be the first teams out)

Unranked Teams That Would Be Dancing
Boston College (Unranked but #31 in the votes)
Virginia Tech (Unranked but #33 in the votes)
BYU (Uranked but #35 in the votes)

Mid-Atlantic Regional

Blue and White Golf Course, University Park, Pennsylvania
Start times: 12 p.m. ET (women); 1 p.m. ET (men)

USTFCCCA Regional Rankings

#2 Georgetown – projected to qualify
#7 West Virginia – projected to qualify
#30 Villanova – NOT projected to qualify
#28 Princeton – NOT projected to qualify
Penn State
Penn
Duquesne

Georgetown is going. West Virginia is going. And right now, that’s it. Just like the men’s race at the Mid-Atlantic Regional, Princeton is on the outside looking in, with Villanova joining them this time instead of Georgetown. The problem for the Lady Tigers is that knocking off #2 Georgetown or #7 West Virginia is a much taller order than the task awaiting the Princeton men (defeating #14 Georgetown). West Virginia was fifth at Wisconsin in a field with 22 ranked teams; Princeton was sixth at Pre-Nats in a field with six ranked teams. Both teams were second in their conference meets, but West Virginia scored 58 to Princeton’s 67 and did so against a much tougher field. Unless the so-called geniuses at Princeton can figure out a way to clone Megan Curham, it’s unlikely that the Tigers can topple one of the two heavyweights in the region.

Villanova is in a similar, though slightly worse situation. Nova didn’t run as well as Princeton during the regular season (according to our projections, Princeton will finish with two points; Villanova won’t have any) and would have to auto-qualify (or get pushed in) to make it to Terre Haute. As it stands, the Wildcats are looking at the very real possibility of missing NCAAs for the first time since 2007; if Providence misses out as well, it will be the first year since 1988 that neither of those storied programs made it to NCAAs on the women’s side.

So it looks ikely that two teams that have combined to win three of the last five NCAA champions (Villanova won in 2009 and 2010) will be left home. That’s pretty remarkable as one might thing winning an NCAA title would result in a boost in recruiting.

[Nevada Hoya]

The lineup for the men today:

Amos Bartelsmeyer
Ahmed Bile
Scott Carpenter
Darren Fahy
Ryan Gil
Jonathan Green
Matt Howard
Stephen Kersh
Brian King
Collin Leibold
John Murray

Of course, any of those 11 could run. Seven runners count in the scoring, the first five accumulate points and the 6th and 7th runners push other teams runners up in score. Since this is a 10K race, our middle distance runners might not do so well as in a 8K race. So Brian King, Jonathan Green, and John Murray might do better than the rest.

[Nevada Hoya]

The women could run any of 10 runners:

Maddy Chambers
Katrina Coogan
Sarah Cotton
Autumn Eastman
Andrea Keklak
Annamarie Maag
Sam Nadel
Hannah Neczypor
Haley Pierce
Kelsey Smith

The race is 6K, so there should not be any difference in this race as in previous races. The question will be, who will be going all out, who will be resting, and who will be the first 7. They will probably run in a pack and try to control the race.

[Nevada Hoya]

At 2 miles it is WV 57, Princeton 63, Hoyas 74, Nova 102 for the women.

[Nevada Hoya]

The women won.

1. Katrina Coogan 20:06
7. Haley Pierce 20:39
8. Sam Nadel 20:39
10. Maddy Chambers 20:46
12. Sarah Cotton 20:55
23. Annamarie Maag 21:15

[Nevada Hoya]

The women's team scoring was closer than expected as WV was four points behind the Hoyas.
Hoyas 38
WVU 42

Of course, the Hoyas might not have been running all out - just enough to win. Katrina continues to be our low scorer.

[sleepyjackson21]

And it looks like the women held out Andrea Keklak and Kelsey Smith.

[Nevada Hoya]

That's what I think, sleepy; maybe also Hannah, but I haven't seen the entire results.

[Nevada Hoya]

In the BE meet our 5th and 6th runners were our 7th and 8th runners. And Maddy didn't run at BE. It should be interesting to see who we run at Nationals.

[Nevada Hoya]

Men should be underway right now.

[Nevada Hoya]

At two miles it is Nova over Penn State in the men's race.

[Nevada Hoya]

Hannah actually ran in this race:

28 Hannah Neczypor, Sr 21:22 5:44

[sleepyjackson21]

Unofficially the men finish 2nd behind Villanova.

[Nevada Hoya]

Villanova 41
Georgetown 74
Penn State 87
Princeton 88

6. Scott Carpenter 30:23
8. Darren Fahy 30:24
14. John Murray 30:31
19. Ryan Gil 30:44
27. Collin Leibold 30:53
29. Ahmed Bile 30:58
60. Brian King 31:40

The Hoyas ran well with a 30 s spread from 1-5, very good for the 10K distance (but Nova had a 12s spread). I expected Jonathan Green to run, but maybe they are saving him for Nationals.

So the Hoyas have their auto bid and they return to the NCAAs.

[Nevada Hoya]

Scott and Darren were within 3-4 s of #2 Tiernan of Nova.

[sleepyjackson21]

Good day for the Hoyas. Mission accomplished!

[FrazierFanatic]

Great job by both squads! Keep on truckin' Hoyas!