OOC Analysis

[HoyaSinceBirth]

Last years RPIs for OOC teams:
Florida #1
Kansas #4
Towson # 84
Indiana #97
Robert Morris #119
Charlotte #151
St. Francis NY # 187
Radford #229
Texas A&M CC #233

Potential opponents (Wisconsin #3 or UAB #153; UNC #23, UCLA #15, Oklahoma #31, Butler #154)

Last Years KenPom for OOC teams:
Florida 3
Kansas 12
Indiana 67
Towson 126
Robert Morris 162
Charlotte 178
St. Francis NY 196
Texas A&M Corpus Christi 217
Radford 245

Potential opponents (Wisconsin 6 or UAB 156; UNC 27, UCLA 15 Oklahoma 33, Butler 104)

Obviously some teams will be better than last year (probably Indiana) some will be worse (probably Towson)

We know Florida, Wisconins, Kansas, UNC, UCLA, and Oklahoma are all projected top 25 teams.

Indiana lost 2 seniors and Noah Vonleh to the draft (only 1 of the 3 was in their most frequent line up) but bring in 5 star James Blackmon jr and 4 star RObert Johnson
Towson loses 4 seniors (all in their most used line up)
Robert Mossis loses 4 seniors (only 2 in their most used line up)
Charlotte Loses only 1 senior that ken pom has as nearly invisible and did not start.
St. Francis NY loses 3 seniors but only 1 was in their most used line up and the other two barely played
Texas AM CC loses 3 seniors 2 of which were role players and one of which was a bench warmer
Radford loses only 1 senior who was nearly invisible.

Therefore it seems rather likely that:
Indiana, Charlotte, St. Francis, Texas AM CC, and Radford should all be better than they were last year

While Towson and Robert Morris will take a step back.

We have no teams that should be 300+ RPI killers and in fact our entire OOC line up could end up in the top 200 of the RPI. This is actually a very good OOC schedule in terms of quality.

We have 1 top 10 team at home (Kansas)
We have a tournament where we start with a top 10 team and are guaranteed to play at least 1 other top 50 RPI team and have the potential to play 3 top 10 teams.
We have a Neutral site game against a team that should be top 50 in the RPI (Indiana)
Then we have a stronger group of cupcake games that should all be between 100-200 of the RPI instead of 200-300 or 300+

[prhoya]

Super breakdown, HSB! I hope you're right regarding no RPI killers. Anyway, just win, baby!

[hoyasaxa2003]

I agree. It's a good schedule. Beating Florida is really important - not only would it give us an early marquee win, but it would also likely guarantee 2 additional top 50 RPI opponents. We would likely get another one even if we lose to Florida, but winning is a whole lot better.

[HoyaSinceBirth]

Also for reference here are the RPI of last few years teams from the OOC:

Kansas 4
Oregon 27
Wright st 165
NorthEastern 219
Kansas St 58
VCU 19
Lipscomb 203
High Pt 172
Colgate 258
Elon 164
FIU 207

4 over 200, 0 over 300

year before:

Florida 8 (but didn't end up counting for our RPI)
Duquesne 231
Liberty 290
UCLA 32
Indiana 12
Mt St. Mary's 125
Tennessee 66
Texas 121
Towson 154
Longwood 333
Western Carolina 245
American 278

6 over 200, 1 over 300

11-12
Savannah St 188
UNC Greensboro 236
Kansas 5
Chaminade NR D2
Memphis 20
IUPUI 212
Alabama 40
NJIT 305
Howard 284
American 153
Memphis 20

4 200+ 1 300+

[CAHoya07]

Good stuff, HSB. I think it has the potential to be a very good OOC schedule. We can all complain about timing of games and wish certain games were on weekends instead of weekdays, but for what we can really control, I think we did a good job, and the future only looks up with the Syracuse game coming back next season (plus the Gavitt Games with the B10).

My only concern for this season is that we don't play any true OOC road games, so our first one will be on New Year's Eve at Xavier, a very tough place to play. We really struggled on the road last season, so here's hoping our boys can get our act together in hostile environments.

[hoyalove4ever]

Excellent post- thank you for that great analysis. While I miss playing St. Leo's, this schedule is a good one.

[SFHoya99]

Great post. When some of the creampuff games came out my first question was, how many of these teams are terrible? Because that's bad scheduling. Turns out none. Great job by the staff and thanks for the legwork, HSB.