SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Aug 12, 2014 19:40:44 GMT -5
Georgetown had an adjusted offensive efficiency of 111.8 last year. This was not a great year for the offense, ranking just 44th in D-I.
They did this despite Nate not drawing attention for roughly 62% of minutes played. The argument is that while Nate was not inefficient, he drug down the team because everyone else was playing 4 on 5. That's not wrong, but the effect is seen in total team numbers. And it's not great.
But here's the rub:
Josh, Markel, DSR and Trawick all had efficiencies above 110. Nate was at a 107, and Reggie and Aaron sat around 100. Moses was at a 96, but he used less possessions than Nate!
And then there's Mikael - he scored 92 per 100 possessions used. If he were a team, he'd be Alabama A&M. Like it or not, there's no way Nate not shooting hurt us more on offense than Mikael shooting did.
Now, Mikael, when not fouling, was pretty darn good on D. So there's that to consider. But this idea that Nate was holding us back more than Mikael's bull rushes to the basket is kind of crazy.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Aug 12, 2014 19:44:27 GMT -5
You and I watched a different Hopkins. There is nothing decent about Hopkins' jumper. It's been bad to awful his entire career. No teams respected Hopkins' jumper. Plus, he's a poor finisher. As for his handle, so many of Hopkins' turnovers happened when he attempted to put the ball on the floor. To say his handle is decent is an exaggeration of immense proportion. Henry's handle was decent. He could, and frequently did, take his man from the top. Hopkins, not even close. And if Hopkins shot 70% from the FT line, I would be ecstatic. Fact is, last yr he shot 63% from the line, while his soph yr hhe shot 62.1%. To his credit, as a frosh he shot 75% on only 36 attempts. That does give one some hope. As TBird and others have pointed out, though, you just don't fIgwant someone with a 92 ORtg using 20+% of possessions. We hopefully will have better options. No one wants Hopkins to be a great player this year for us more than I do. I pray the kid gets it together. Your arguments for Hopkins, however, ring hollow. I clearly stated in games re: Hopkins' jumper. He has a good jumper in warmups, drills, and even in non-competitive setting he just hasn't gotten past the nerves. That's not to say that I think he'll get better in games just that that wasn't my argument. It's not like teams sag off him even half as far as they sagged off of Nate, and that incorporates his ability to put the ball on the floor. You have to be able to differentiate production from ability. Sure he had a lot of turnovers handling the ball, but so do most bigs and even some guards. That doesn't negate the possibility of being a positive contributor. His ft stroke is also better than he showed this past season - same way DSRs 3pt stroke and Reggie's are better than what they showed last season. No one is suggesting that he use up 20% of possessions to be effective. My arguments ring hollow when you try and evaluate his performances in terms of statistical context. And that's if you value offense over defense, which is not his forte. He hasn't gotten past nerves in games? That's ridiculous.
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rockhoya
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Post by rockhoya on Aug 12, 2014 19:58:23 GMT -5
I clearly stated in games re: Hopkins' jumper. He has a good jumper in warmups, drills, and even in non-competitive setting he just hasn't gotten past the nerves. That's not to say that I think he'll get better in games just that that wasn't my argument. It's not like teams sag off him even half as far as they sagged off of Nate, and that incorporates his ability to put the ball on the floor. You have to be able to differentiate production from ability. Sure he had a lot of turnovers handling the ball, but so do most bigs and even some guards. That doesn't negate the possibility of being a positive contributor. His ft stroke is also better than he showed this past season - same way DSRs 3pt stroke and Reggie's are better than what they showed last season. No one is suggesting that he use up 20% of possessions to be effective. My arguments ring hollow when you try and evaluate his performances in terms of statistical context. And that's if you value offense over defense, which is not his forte. He hasn't gotten past nerves in games? That's ridiculous. It's not far fetched to think the game hasn't completely slowed down for him yet. Sometimes it takes players longer, everybody is different. I'm not saying he's nervous it's that he's thinking too much.
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tashoya
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Post by tashoya on Aug 12, 2014 21:14:00 GMT -5
I think we'll see Bowen start over Cameron. I'll be extremely surprised if Bowen starts for us. All he has shown thus far in his career is backup talent. And Cameron has shown what exactly? Bowen is miles better on D and is good on the break and putbacks. Cameron wasn't good at the one thing he was billed to be good at. Hopefully that has changed with regard to Reggie's shooting because that fills a big need but that would have to be a pretty big improvement for him to warrant a starting role.
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nathanhm
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Post by nathanhm on Aug 12, 2014 21:26:51 GMT -5
Josh looks good and in shape. Why anyone is talking about anything other than this confuses me. Hoyafan - is he back on campus
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blueandgray
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Post by blueandgray on Aug 12, 2014 21:40:19 GMT -5
Josh looks good and in shape. Why anyone is talking about anything other than this confuses me. Hoyafan - is he back on campus Hoyafan is right....he does look to be in good shape....not back on campus yet.
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hoyainspirit
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Post by hoyainspirit on Aug 12, 2014 21:47:55 GMT -5
I'll be extremely surprised if Bowen starts for us. All he has shown thus far in his career is backup talent. And Cameron has shown what exactly? Bowen is miles better on D and is good on the break and putbacks. Cameron wasn't good at the one thing he was billed to be good at. Hopefully that has changed with regard to Reggie's shooting because that fills a big need but that would have to be a pretty big improvement for him to warrant a starting role. I never said I thought Cameron would start. I said I would be surprised if Bowen did.
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blueandgray
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Post by blueandgray on Aug 12, 2014 22:01:14 GMT -5
Why anyone is talking about anything other than this confuses me. Hoyafan - is he back on campus Hoyafan is right....he does look to be in good shape....not back on campus yet. Incidentally, I know there has been a lot of speculation about whether Josh is coming back. I am happy to report that he will be.
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tashoya
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Post by tashoya on Aug 12, 2014 22:12:36 GMT -5
And Cameron has shown what exactly? Bowen is miles better on D and is good on the break and putbacks. Cameron wasn't good at the one thing he was billed to be good at. Hopefully that has changed with regard to Reggie's shooting because that fills a big need but that would have to be a pretty big improvement for him to warrant a starting role. I never said I thought Cameron would start. I said I would be surprised if Bowen did. Gotcha. My apologies. I misunderstood due to the posts to which you responded that were referring to Bowen vs. Cameron.
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tashoya
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Post by tashoya on Aug 12, 2014 22:14:33 GMT -5
Hoyafan is right....he does look to be in good shape....not back on campus yet. Incidentally, I know there has been a lot of speculation about whether Josh is coming back. I am happy to report that he will be. Thanks b&g. I can't believe the number of posts disputing the relevance of Hop's stats and his value compared to the lack of posts on Joshua. Good news. I hope he's focused and ready to work on and off the court. Hopefully he's been on the LeBron/Melo program.
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Post by matersammich on Aug 12, 2014 22:42:23 GMT -5
Incidentally, I know there has been a lot of speculation about whether Josh is coming back. I am happy to report that he will be. Thanks b&g. I can't believe the number of posts disputing the relevance of Hop's stats and his value compared to the lack of posts on Joshua. Good news. I hope he's focused and ready to work on and off the court. Hopefully he's been on the LeBron/Melo program. Josh is going to be a huge factor (no pun intended) for this upcoming season. He can be as good as he wants to be and our Hoyas will benefit or suffer as a consequence of his play. Personally I'm pysched about his participation this year. This team could be great if the stars align...
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tashoya
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Post by tashoya on Aug 12, 2014 22:42:35 GMT -5
BTW, that's the first and last post in which I'll ever express any sort of hope that someone follow Melo's lead in any capacity. I can rarely bring myself to watch the Knicks since he signed on. I have friends that remind me that you root for the name on the front and not the back but, in this case, I just can't do it. I was so hoping for a rebuilding phase....
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tashoya
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Post by tashoya on Aug 12, 2014 22:45:17 GMT -5
Thanks b&g. I can't believe the number of posts disputing the relevance of Hop's stats and his value compared to the lack of posts on Joshua. Good news. I hope he's focused and ready to work on and off the court. Hopefully he's been on the LeBron/Melo program. Josh is going to be a huge factor (no pun intended) for this upcoming season. He can be as good as he wants to be and our Hoyas will benefit or suffer as a consequence of his play. Personally I'm pysched about his participation this year. This team could be great if the stars align... Agree. I'm usually a pretty cynical schmuck but Joshua is still young and still has a window to do some big things. I'd much rather see him succeed than fail. Not just because it helps the Hoyas but because wasted potential is both horrific to watch and can be something that never leaves the person that wasted it. Here's to hoping he's ready to make the doubters take another look.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Aug 12, 2014 22:45:35 GMT -5
Hoyafan is right....he does look to be in good shape....not back on campus yet. Incidentally, I know there has been a lot of speculation about whether Josh is coming back. I am happy to report that he will be. Awesome
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MCIGuy
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Post by MCIGuy on Aug 12, 2014 22:58:21 GMT -5
More than that, it doesn't matter what kind of leap Mikael makes, he doesn't provide offensive spacing. So if he's starting along with Josh up front, our offense simply won't work And where oh where was this concern when Lubick was starting alongside Smith before Smith was put on ice for the remainder of last season? Actually I recall Hopkins looking halfway decent when he was on the court a the same time with Smith because it allowed him to play his natural position as a faceup four. Hopkins has been worse when he is confined exclusively to the center position IMO.
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MCIGuy
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Post by MCIGuy on Aug 12, 2014 23:07:28 GMT -5
I've got three years of data on Mikael. If he turns into Henry, let him do it in 15-20 min a game The idea that Sims was awful as a junior is a fiction created by many of the people on HoyaTalk. Such fiction that people on HT were actually devastated when Moses had his summer/KL injury because they were hoping that he would be able to provide the type of play at the center position that they were confident Henry, going into his senior season, was incapable of. Maybe people on this board were wrong to dismiss Henry like that, but the truth is that is exactly what they were doing at this time three years ago. The opinion of so many regarding Henry was harsh. Years later people can now drag up his adequate and efficient numbers from his junior season all they want, but it doesn't change the fact that back then not many cared about those numbers. In the eyes of many Hoya fans Henry was simply not a Big East level center.
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MCIGuy
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Post by MCIGuy on Aug 12, 2014 23:22:14 GMT -5
So true MCI. Hopkins at least gave us a chance to put points on the board, though he often missed his shots from close range. In contrast, Lubick for all his value actually hurt the team with his refusal to take the open shot on many occasions. Hopkins has not yet lived up to his potential, and perhaps as a result people have devalued him because the end result has thus far not matched the potential. However, his flaws were much more noticeable because of the lack of depth last year in the 4-5 positions. A full year of Smith and the presence of Whittington and/or Porter would have changed his role completely. Offensive shortcomings would not have been magnified. I think we both want the same thing out of Hopkins--a diminished role on offense where he takes/makes open shots but doesn't try to force anything. I think this year, I'd rather have Lubick from last year than Hopkins from last year, since there are likely to be 4 other guys with offensive skill on the court, unlike last year, but your mileage may vary. Nah. Give me the Hopkins of last year more than Lubick. I want five guys on the court who all have the balls to look for their shot if need be and some aggression in their bones. If Hopkins is that one guy on the court who isn't as good or efficient as his teammates then I'll live with it. Basketball teams at all levels have always had to deal with scenarios like that. Besides...if the offensive abilities of Hopkins' teammates are much better this season, then that could mean more opportunities for easier baskets for him if defenses sleep on him while they are worried more about his four other teammates. I do not think Hops is the kind of guy who will just start chucking a lot of shots because he is a senior, he will allow the better players to get more of the shots just as he did early on last season when he found himself on the floor along with Markel, DSR and Joshua. I'll live with his mistakes. What I can't live with is a PF who REFUSES to help out on scoring for a team that too often desperately needs it, a PF who racks up a couple of assists per game because he spends much of his time beyond the three point line waiting to connect on a few backdoor passes.
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MCIGuy
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Post by MCIGuy on Aug 12, 2014 23:32:12 GMT -5
The only thing different in his game is that his minutes have been reduced (and his rebounding has improved some) Basketball isn't played in an excel spreadsheet there are more variables to the equation than what raw numbers indicate.... Truer words never spoken. I don't think there is anybody here who has a personal problem or animus toward Mikael Hopkins. As a person and student athlete, I think he has represented the university well. He's never complained about his role on the team, and he almost always seems to play hard. Aside from fouling, he's also shown he can play good defense. All that being said, he's the worst big man on offense that John Thompson III has ever had given the amount of minutes he has played. That's why he's getting a lot of resistance on this board. I would love it if he suddenly turned the corner this season, but the signs just are not there. As an addendum, Hopkins' O rating the last two years was 92.3 (on 21.3% of possessions), and 82.7 (junior year - on 23.7% of possessions). It's highly abnormal for a big man in John Thompson III's system to use that many possessions with such little offensive ability. I realize Hopkins was forced into that role both in 2013 and 2014, but the blunt fact is that he did not perform on the offensive end and those offensive performances are among the worst of the last 10 years on our team. I never suggested it was anything personal - it doesn't have to be anything personal for someone to see a trend and be inclined to pile on without coming to their own conclusions. Secondly, "worst big man on offense" is subjective, as others have pointed out, because it fails to take into account the Nate Lubicks of the world. I'm just tired of people looking at numbers to tell the whole story. Sure they serve as indicators but basketball is played on the court, not on paper. There are no stats to quantify the parts of the game that determine how much attention is drawn by a player, how much a coach gameplan towards or away from a certain player, and how a role fits into the overall scheme. Players are too often evaluated in a vacuum and different real life circumstances will yield different results even if all the remaining parts remain exactly the same. While he isn't a world beater, he is still better than the picture many have been trying to paint by using his numbers. He has the talent and the coaching and the want-to, there's no point in tempering expectations just because he hasn't reached his potential yet that's not how players get better. And it's mostly all relative even though Jabril is slated to make an impact as a senior I'd argue that a similar case can be made about him and his deficient play. His handle is average, he fouls way too much, he has a limited game off the dribble, not a great jumper, he is about as good a ft shooter as Mikael (slightly better) and is an average passer at best, all that is not to say that he still can't be an effective player. Great post but to be fair the difference between Jabril and Mikael is what did jabril did after he got back from his injury last season. That is a stretch Mikael has yet to have but perhaps he will reach that level this upcoming season.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Aug 12, 2014 23:48:38 GMT -5
Oh, jeez, nerd comments. Enjoy your ignorance. Everyone with money on the line in analyzing basketball and actually winning -- from the teams to players to Vegas bookies have embraced the value of analysis at all levels. But you know better. I always enjoy when people are so enthralled with hearing themselves speak they forget to look around see that the world has changed.
It's pretty clear that unless he either changes his decision-making so that he's not wasting 3-4 possessions a game by chucking up moronic shots or that he's improved to the level that he isn't just giving away the ball half the time he touches, Hopkins belongs backing up Smith. Like it or not, someone with vastly more talent and an actual feel for basketball is going to be taking those minutes, whether it's Paul White or Isaac Copeland. If they can't wrest those minutes away from Hopkins, we're in trouble.
It really doesn't matter what you think about who was better for the team offensively, Lubick or Hopkins. Reality is that despite note providing spacing, Lubick's disappearing act didn't keep players like DSR from performing well above average as an offensive player. It didn't help, but it's hard to look at DSR's season and see a ton of upside if he played with a PF who took more shots. Hopkins took shots he had no business taking, shots players like DSR would have made. Lubick wasn't good, but there's no point in "aggression" or "Making people guard you" if the opponent's smartest play is to make you shoot. Hopkins has a ton more potential than Lubick, no doubt, but there's little reason to think that he's getting there.
You mock Lubick for refusing to shoot -- he made as many 2pt FGs as Hopkins. He just didn't take 40 shots Hopkins missed. Hopkins did make a couple of threes and went to the line a bit more, but honestly, how do you see that much value in basically providing just a ton more misses? The guy shot 44% on mostly close in shots -- do you think any scouting report was like "Play him tight - don't let him shoot." Any half decent coach was begging them to pass it in and get it out of Markel's or DSR's hands.
That said, if this were Lubick v Hopkins, I'm not sure I would care so much. It's not. It's likely versus Isaac Copeland. I know which player I think is going to help us win more this year.
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MCIGuy
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Post by MCIGuy on Aug 12, 2014 23:51:48 GMT -5
He's a mobile four with a decent, at worst average jumpshot and an above average face up game for a back to the basket center and is quick and has above average handle. If he can't provide spacing then that's by design of the system. Problem is you're comparing him to Copeland (and maybe Otto) but they are not at all similar players, both those guys will make their money in the NBA by playing on the perimeter... Also 70% from the line for a big is mediocre?? Talk about subjective.... You and I watched a different Hopkins. There is nothing decent about Hopkins' jumper. It's been bad to awful his entire career. No teams respected Hopkins' jumper. Plus, he's a poor finisher. As for his handle, so many of Hopkins' turnovers happened when he attempted to put the ball on the floor. To say his handle is decent is an exaggeration of immense proportion. Henry's handle was decent. He could, and frequently did, take his man from the top. His jumper is decent. Not great, maybe not good. But it is decent. He has hit enough of them over the years to convince me that it isn't a fluke when his jumper actually goes in. And while I'm not of the opinion that Hopkins will have a Sims-like senior season, I can't let it slide your comment that Sims' handle was better and your suggestion that Sims took his opponent off the bounce more frequently. If Sims started doing that on a more recurring basis it wasn't until his senior season. I don't know what Hopkins' senior season will bring on that front but as far as a comparison for their first three years go I thought Hopkins was more successful in driving to the hole. Not that he does it frequently or all that successfully mind you, but he seemed to score off that move far more than Sims was able to during his first three seasons. Perhaps it was more of the result of Hopkins getting more minutes prior to his senior year, but my point remains that we are now getting to the point of making up stuff if we actually start claiming that driving to the basket was an element of Sims' game that was superior to Hopkins during the same stages of their careers. Josh looks good and in shape. Please let this be true. Because if it is....we can beat anyone. Anyone. I still maintain that Hopkins' performance ranks him as the worst big man on offense that JTIII has had, given his usage rate and the amount of minutes he has played. Nate Lubick wasn't great either, but also did not try to do things he could not do, and as a result, he was actually a fairly efficient offensive player. People try to let Nate Lubick off the hook when they resort to the "he didn't try to do things he couldn't do" excuse. What about not trying to do things he COULD do either? He could post up and attempt a hook shot whenever he wanted. But he decided not to do this, sometime going weeks without even attempting a postup move. And if people's explanation for this is that he wasn't good enough to take such a shot on a regular basis my counter would be whose fault is that? He was a far more highly thought of prospect coming out of high school than Hopkins. He had a strong body and build from day one, strong enough to bang with most college fives but fortunately for him he always started at the four position thus never having to play out of position on a regular basis. Thus he had the strength to post against virtually all PFs he faced off against, often times he had the clear advantage in terms of strength. But he rarely looked to score. Where was his work ethic during the summers and offseason to hone this part of his game? Where was his courage and leadership to go ahead and do what needed to be done in the paint during his final two seasons when his team needed points? I'm sorry but I have less patience and use for a guy who doesn't give the effort and runs away from any offensive responsibility, than a guy like Hopkins who may screw up on that side of the ball but at least tries to be more than a decoy, particularly when his team is in need.
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