TBird41
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
"Roy! I Love All 7'2" of you Roy!"
Posts: 8,740
|
Post by TBird41 on Oct 16, 2014 13:09:39 GMT -5
Gtown, Nova, Xavier and then a fourth like St. Johns need to show up in early OOC games. That will carry forward through the rest of the year if we get big wins early (Like Nova last year who was on no ones radar and got a 2 seed). That's pretty much how JT3 put together that streak of being ranked in the top 10 despite never seeming to be ranked in the offseason--out perform against good teams out of conference, then do well in conference.
|
|
hoyainspirit
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
When life puts that voodoo on me, music is my gris-gris.
Posts: 8,392
|
Post by hoyainspirit on Oct 16, 2014 13:20:33 GMT -5
Though I totally understand why, I believe the Hoyas are vastly underrated coming into the season. Not much Hoya buzz in the media currently. Let's hope that turns around once the season begins!
|
|
|
Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Oct 16, 2014 15:38:15 GMT -5
Last year, I compared the pre-season 2012-2013 AP rankings to the final 2013 rankings. What I found was:
9 of the preseason top 25 did not make the final top 25, though they all made the NCAA tournament except for Kentucky and Florida State.
9 teams finished in the top 25, but did not get ranked pre-season at all. Three of these teams ended in the top 10 and six were in the top 15.
So basically, this shows what we already know - the preseason rankings basically mean nothing. They are good at picking the known entities that will be good, but even then, there are mistakes (as with Kentucky in the 2012-2013 season).
|
|
|
Post by FrazierFanatic on Oct 16, 2014 16:02:23 GMT -5
Excited to see our young men develop as a TEAM and work their way up the rankings. We will be top 15 by the end of the regular season.
|
|
|
Post by Ranch Dressing on Oct 16, 2014 16:56:27 GMT -5
Last year, I compared the pre-season 2012-2013 AP rankings to the final 2013 rankings. What I found was: 9 of the preseason top 25 did not make the final top 25, though they all made the NCAA tournament except for Kentucky and Florida State. 9 teams finished in the top 25, but did not get ranked pre-season at all. Three of these teams ended in the top 10 and six were in the top 15. So basically, this shows what we already know - the preseason rankings basically mean nothing. They are good at picking the known entities that will be good, but even then, there are mistakes (as with Kentucky in the 2012-2013 season). I would disagree strongly that the pre-season rankings from 2013 meant nothing. The data you provide show that, with 64% accuracy (16/25), the pre-season ranking was a very solid predictor of season-end Top 25. Consider further that a Top 25 selection is roughly 1% of the total pool of NCAA teams (~250 teams). A 1% subset that predicts an outcome with 64% accuracy is pretty amazingly accurate. The data also show that, with 92% accuracy (23/25), the pre-season Top 25 was an excellent predictor of making the NCAAs.
|
|
prhoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 23,258
|
Post by prhoya on Oct 16, 2014 17:27:21 GMT -5
I would like to see the five freshmen together vs. one of the cupcakes: Trey at C, Ike at 4, White at 3, LJ at 2 and Tre at 1. Let the kids play some...
|
|
|
Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Oct 16, 2014 18:26:16 GMT -5
The data you provide show that, with 64% accuracy (16/25), the pre-season ranking was a very solid predictor of season-end Top 25. Consider further that a Top 25 selection is roughly 1% of the total pool of NCAA teams (~250 teams). A 1% subset that predicts an outcome with 64% accuracy is pretty amazingly accurate. The data also show that, with 92% accuracy (23/25), the pre-season Top 25 was an excellent predictor of making the NCAAs. I probably overstated my point. Obviously, those stats mean something, but it also shows there is a high degree of error when ranking the top 25. 36% of the pre-season top 25 picks were incorrect. And when you consider that 6 teams in the top 15 at the end of the season weren't ranked at all, it means that 40% of the pre-season Top 15 was incorrect. Yes, it was a good predictor of NCAA tournament success. But when you consider that 44-45ish teams would make it on quality (obviously some make it because of an automatic bid, but they'd get an at large otherwise), it's really not as impressive as it seems. To make a politics analogy, it's like people who predict 45/50 states right in a presidential election. It might seem impressive initially, but when you consider most of them are not competitive, it's pretty much meaningless. When you consider that there's a core group of consistent NCAA teams year in and year out, it makes it even easier to predict.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2014 11:53:18 GMT -5
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2014 15:48:10 GMT -5
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2014 14:38:57 GMT -5
|
|
njhoya78
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 7,764
|
Post by njhoya78 on Oct 29, 2014 19:10:37 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by FrazierFanatic on Oct 29, 2014 19:49:32 GMT -5
Yeah they have had too many problems with ineligibility, suspension, dismissal . . .
|
|
|
Post by dungeon ball on Oct 29, 2014 20:04:50 GMT -5
Yeah they have had too many problems with ineligibility, suspension, dismissal . . . ...wearing sweatsuits to media day...
|
|
tashoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 12,318
|
Post by tashoya on Oct 29, 2014 20:33:05 GMT -5
Yeah they have had too many problems with ineligibility, suspension, dismissal . . . ...wearing sweatsuits to media day... One of the downsides of Lavin.
|
|
|
Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Oct 30, 2014 6:30:49 GMT -5
Yeah they have had too many problems with ineligibility, suspension, dismissal . . . I'm almost at the point where I feel like St. John's needs to move on with a different coach. One of the good things about Lavin was that he was supposed to be a good recruiter and even that has fallen off considerably over the last few years. Maybe he will turn things around but it's getting to the point where I'm doubtful Lavin is the one to turn things around.
|
|
|
Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Oct 30, 2014 7:21:17 GMT -5
Yeah they have had too many problems with ineligibility, suspension, dismissal . . . I'm almost at the point where I feel like St. John's needs to move on with a different coach. One of the good things about Lavin was that he was supposed to be a good recruiter and even that has fallen off considerably over the last few years. Maybe he will turn things around but it's getting to the point where I'm doubtful Lavin is the one to turn things around. Right that's why I view this ineligibility is a good thing. We need St. John's to Flop this year so they fire Lavin and get a real coach who can turn them around. I don't think Lavin's the guy to turn them around, so better to get him out of there sooner rather than later.
|
|
njhoya78
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 7,764
|
Post by njhoya78 on Oct 30, 2014 9:58:44 GMT -5
Steve Lavin has two seasons left on his contract at St. John's. At the end of last season, news broke that he and the Johnnies were discussing a four-year extension of the contract, through the 2019-2020 season; interestingly, though, no announcement of any agreement has surfaced. Wonder if there is some pullback at St. John's from those talks?
|
|
FLHoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Proud Member of Generation Burton
Posts: 4,544
|
Post by FLHoya on Oct 30, 2014 12:43:04 GMT -5
We need St. John's to Flop this year so they fire Lavin and get a real coach who can turn them around. Well at least someone's come up with a variation on this tired theme. I can at least feign intrigue at the thought of a team dropping from the ranks of "we really need them to be good for the sake of the Big East"--which seems to include everyone except DePaul--to the ranks of...well...with DePaul.
|
|
guru
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,597
|
Post by guru on Oct 30, 2014 13:08:51 GMT -5
We need St. John's to Flop this year so they fire Lavin and get a real coach who can turn them around. Well at least someone's come up with a variation on this tired theme. I can at least feign intrigue at the thought of a team dropping from the ranks of "we really need them to be good for the sake of the Big East"--which seems to include everyone except DePaul--to the ranks of...well...with DePaul. Never understood how you don't get it. A strong and relevant St. John's team, and the accompanying attention it would get in NYC and thus nationally, would be huge for our fledgling conference. That's a fact. Sadly at this point that looks like it might never happen. But the point stands.
|
|
njhoya78
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 7,764
|
Post by njhoya78 on Oct 30, 2014 13:58:41 GMT -5
I don't believe that FLHoya doesn't get it. I believe that his point is that those of use who have been long-time fans of the Hoyas and the Big East Conference have been frustrated by the inability of St. John's to find an good head coach since Brian Mahoney replaced Lou Carnesecca, and we are tired of constantly harping on this failure. There is no excuse for this program to have drifted as much as it has drifted over the years. There is too much talent in the PSAL to not have the Johnnies always competitive without resorting to junior college transfers with spurious academic qualifications. DePaul is a lost cause. . .St. John's does not have to be.
It's almost as tiresome as commenting upon the continuing shenanigans at Syracuse. Well, maybe not. . . .
|
|