Hoyaholic
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Post by Hoyaholic on Mar 8, 2014 19:36:20 GMT -5
Can anyone refresh my memory, but were we even on the bubble (or close to it) in the 08-09 season? Not even close. If you believe NIT seedings as a proxy, we were a 6 seed in the NIT that year. We may not have been "on the bubble" as of Selection Sunday, but the conventional wisdom at the time was that if we had beaten St Johns in the play-in round of the BET, that we would have been in.
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Buckets
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Post by Buckets on Mar 8, 2014 21:16:54 GMT -5
We were nowhere near the bubble on Selection Sunday, but we were actually in a reasonably similar position going into the BET. CNNSI at the time: Georgetown (16-13, 7-11; RPI: 40; SOS: 1) finished at 7-11, but the Hoyas actually have the Big East tournament draw that looks most conducive to a surprise run. First, they must handle St. John's at the Garden, a task they failed to complete last week. If they beat the Red Storm, they get reeling Marquette before a possible quarterfinal with Villanova. If the Hoyas pop up in the Big East tourney semis, is there any chance the wins over UConn and Memphis and the SOS can carry them? They'd probably need at least one more upset win.The only reason we needed a BET run was because we lost to an awful St. John's team the week before (that we would lose to again to end up as a 6 seed in the NIT). After the Villanova win on 2/28 that season, Andy Katz said: Georgetown has more than just a pulse. Their win at Villanova put the Hoyas at 6-10 in the Big East. Win the final two games to get to 8-10 and win a first-round game in the Big East tournament, and the Hoyas will be on the board to get a bid with two bankable big-time wins over Connecticut and Memphis.That team had wins over #1 seed UConn, #2 seed Memphis, and #3 seed Villanova, and lost the season series to Cincinnati who was about the caliber of Seton Hall this season, and of course the two losses in a week to an atrocious St. John's team. There's a whole thread about it here.
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hoyas1995
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Post by hoyas1995 on Mar 8, 2014 21:24:18 GMT -5
We were nowhere near the bubble on Selection Sunday, but we were actually in a reasonably similar position going into the BET. CNNSI at the time: Georgetown (16-13, 7-11; RPI: 40; SOS: 1) finished at 7-11, but the Hoyas actually have the Big East tournament draw that looks most conducive to a surprise run. First, they must handle St. John's at the Garden, a task they failed to complete last week. If they beat the Red Storm, they get reeling Marquette before a possible quarterfinal with Villanova. If the Hoyas pop up in the Big East tourney semis, is there any chance the wins over UConn and Memphis and the SOS can carry them? They'd probably need at least one more upset win.The only reason we needed a BET run was because we lost to an awful St. John's team the week before (that we would lose to again to end up as a 6 seed in the NIT). After the Villanova win on 2/28 that season, Andy Katz said: Georgetown has more than just a pulse. Their win at Villanova put the Hoyas at 6-10 in the Big East. Win the final two games to get to 8-10 and win a first-round game in the Big East tournament, and the Hoyas will be on the board to get a bid with two bankable big-time wins over Connecticut and Memphis.That team had wins over #1 seed UConn, #2 seed Memphis, and #3 seed Villanova, and lost the season series to Cincinnati who was about the caliber of Seton Hall this season, and of course the two losses in a week to an atrocious St. John's team. There's a whole thread about it here. Interesting read. Seems somewhat comparable to this seasons team wouldnt you say?
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Post by professorhoya on Mar 8, 2014 22:18:04 GMT -5
We were nowhere near the bubble on Selection Sunday, but we were actually in a reasonably similar position going into the BET. CNNSI at the time: Georgetown (16-13, 7-11; RPI: 40; SOS: 1) finished at 7-11, but the Hoyas actually have the Big East tournament draw that looks most conducive to a surprise run. First, they must handle St. John's at the Garden, a task they failed to complete last week. If they beat the Red Storm, they get reeling Marquette before a possible quarterfinal with Villanova. If the Hoyas pop up in the Big East tourney semis, is there any chance the wins over UConn and Memphis and the SOS can carry them? They'd probably need at least one more upset win.The only reason we needed a BET run was because we lost to an awful St. John's team the week before (that we would lose to again to end up as a 6 seed in the NIT). After the Villanova win on 2/28 that season, Andy Katz said: Georgetown has more than just a pulse. Their win at Villanova put the Hoyas at 6-10 in the Big East. Win the final two games to get to 8-10 and win a first-round game in the Big East tournament, and the Hoyas will be on the board to get a bid with two bankable big-time wins over Connecticut and Memphis.That team had wins over #1 seed UConn, #2 seed Memphis, and #3 seed Villanova, and lost the season series to Cincinnati who was about the caliber of Seton Hall this season, and of course the two losses in a week to an atrocious St. John's team. There's a whole thread about it here. Interesting read. Seems somewhat comparable to this seasons team wouldnt you say? No. That was a much more talented team. Greg Monroe, Freeman, Chris Wright, Summers, Jessie Sapp. Henry Sims, Jason Clark, Julian Vaughn, Nikita. If it wasn't for the incident they would have done some damage in the NCAA tournament. They never really got blown out but it was infuriating how many close games they lost. But the incident doomed morale on the team for a couple months and it was too late by the time they realized they were on the bubble. This year's team just lacks a certain amount of talent, especially with the new rules that make it impossible to play defense. I'll never say never but the odds of this years team winning the BET are very small.
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Hoyaholic
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Post by Hoyaholic on Mar 8, 2014 22:32:37 GMT -5
I That was a much more talented team. Greg Monroe, Freeman, Chris Wright, Summers, Jessie Sapp. Henry Sims, Jason Clark, Julian Vaughn, Nikita. Right...Nikita. It would be funny if he hadn't started the second half of the season.
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hoyas1995
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by hoyas1995 on Mar 8, 2014 22:54:07 GMT -5
Interesting read. Seems somewhat comparable to this seasons team wouldnt you say? No. That was a much more talented team. Greg Monroe, Freeman, Chris Wright, Summers, Jessie Sapp. Henry Sims, Jason Clark, Julian Vaughn, Nikita. If it wasn't for the incident they would have done some damage in the NCAA tournament. They never really got blown out but it was infuriating how many close games they lost. But the incident doomed morale on the team for a couple months and it was too late by the time they realized they were on the bubble. This year's team just lacks a certain amount of talent, especially with the new rules that make it impossible to play defense. I'll never say never but the odds of this years team winning the BET are very small. What incident?
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HoyaNyr320
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Post by HoyaNyr320 on Mar 8, 2014 23:08:47 GMT -5
No. That was a much more talented team. Greg Monroe, Freeman, Chris Wright, Summers, Jessie Sapp. Henry Sims, Jason Clark, Julian Vaughn, Nikita. If it wasn't for the incident they would have done some damage in the NCAA tournament. They never really got blown out but it was infuriating how many close games they lost. But the incident doomed morale on the team for a couple months and it was too late by the time they realized they were on the bubble. This year's team just lacks a certain amount of talent, especially with the new rules that make it impossible to play defense. I'll never say never but the odds of this years team winning the BET are very small. What incident? Internal self-loathing
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Hoyaholic
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Post by Hoyaholic on Mar 8, 2014 23:48:26 GMT -5
There was no incident. There has never been an incident. Please do not refer to the incident again.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Mar 9, 2014 7:53:28 GMT -5
For sure, if we bow out against DePaul we will be out by plenty. But beating them and getting a crack at Creighton I think gives us a realistic chance to play to get in. Still only the fourth or fifth team out as of today.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 10, 2014 9:17:04 GMT -5
I would love to believe that 2 BET wins will be enough, but the more and more I look at the bubble, I'm thinking it's going to take 3 wins to get in, here's why:
The number of teams that can potentially play themselves out of the bracket with a bad early conference tourney loss isn't that high. For example, a bubble team like BYU has already dodged their bad losses (a loss against San Fran or Gonzaga won't hurt them nearly enough to knock them out). In my opinion, teams that are currently in as of last night's Bracket Matrix (with lag built-in) who have this potential could include the following (opening game in parentheses):
1) Xavier (Marquette) 2) Dayton (winner of George Mason/Fordham) 3) Arkansas (winner of Auburn/South Carolina) 4) Tennessee (winner of Arkansas/Auburn-South Carolina winner) 5) Nebraska (winner of Ohio State-Purdue)
If you believe that Arkansas won't slip up against the 12/13 SEC seed in the 2nd round SEC game, then Arkansas or Tennessee will have to win that quarterfinal game since they'll be H2H. Because of that, it's unlikely that both would miss. Tennessee has the better overall profile, so we would be rooting for them.
I personally think Nebraska is safe even with a loss to Ohio St. in the B10 quarters. Although they have 3 sub-100 losses and are only 3-7 against the Top 50, their overall computer numbers will end up being no worse than ours even if we win 2 games (projected RPI of around 47-48 according to RPI Forecast). My guess is going 11-7 in the B10 will trump an 8-10 BE team more often than not. A loss to Purdue might change that, but the odds of this happening are unlikely.
All of this means in a best case scenario (Xavier loss, Dayton loss, Nebraska loss to OSU, Arkansas loss), I think there are at best 3 bids remaining that we could grab. More than likely, it's probably 2.
Teams that could conceivably play their way into the bracket without winning their conference tourneys outright include the following:
1) Cal (Colorado/USC winner) 2) Providence (St. John's) 3) Georgetown (Depaul) 4) St. John's (Providence) 5) Minnesota (Penn State) 6) Florida St. (Maryland) 7) Missouri (Texas A&M)
I don't think Missouri, FSU, and Minnesota have a chance of passing us unless they outperform us in conference tourney (Missouri would face Florida in their 2nd game, FSU would play UVA, and Minnesota would play Wisconsin). Providence and St. John's is basically an elimination game. I'm obviously biased, but I think we have a better profile than either team and they would have to beat Nova to stay with us in the BE pecking order if we beat Creighton.
In a best case scenario where Minnesota, FSU, Missouri all lose early and St. John's/Providence eliminates another bubble team (but keeps the winner in contention vs. Nova), it would leave Cal/Georgetown/SJU-Prov winner to fight for 2-3 spots. And it's only 2-3 spots if we get most, if not all of these conference tourney results to go our way AND there are no bid thieves in the smaller tourneys.
If Xavier beats Marquette and we were fortunate enough to get past Creighton, that quarterfinal game could become another elimination game if the majority of the rest of the bubble takes care of business or overperforms in their respective tournaments. In the end, I think the BE is getting 3 bids (4 max if a lot of things shake out right), and it's possible that Xavier, Prov, SJU and GU will be fighting over one tourney bid when it's all said and done. Whoever goes the furthest in the BET wins.
I know I just wrote a lot, but the overall point is still this: I don't think I'd be comfortable with just 2 BE wins. It's not impossible, but we would need a lot to go our way in order to have a shot.
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Mar 10, 2014 9:24:18 GMT -5
Just win, baby!
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drquigley
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Post by drquigley on Mar 10, 2014 9:27:22 GMT -5
No way we lose to Depaul. But if we beat Creighton then I think we have a great shot at making it to the finals. The Creighton game is huge.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 10, 2014 9:29:59 GMT -5
I think that is a fair anaylsis, but why do you think it's about other teams playing themselves out? I think it's about us playing in. The point is that beating Creighton in the quarterfinals would be a much better bubble win than any of those other teams. It would get us to 6 wins against the top 50, and likely 4 top 25 wins.
i dont think we are definitely in with 2 wins, but I think its closer than you are saying.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Mar 10, 2014 9:40:48 GMT -5
I think Jook and Rockaway are both right...just saying it in different ways. The problem is that the other bubble contenders have over-performed, by and large, to date, so there's more teams even with or ahead of us than there were after the Creighton win. Anytime you're on the outside looking in at this point (which seems surely to be the case), you're at the mercy (as Rockaway points out) of teams already ahead of you not themselves over-performing expectations, such that your big wins still don't get the job done. So, nothing short of winning the BET will make us a true lock, especially depending on who we beat to get to the final. With three wins, I'd be very confident, though. With two wins, I think we'd all be able to make a very strong argument based on our high-level wins and SOS, but we'd still have to hope some other teams stumbled and that the committee emphasized the things we want them to. I think we'd sneak in. With one win, well, it's actually not impossible but it's nearly so; we'd need lots of teams in front or even with us to lose early in their tournaments and for the committee to really emphasize our strong SOS and high-level wins.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 10, 2014 10:23:46 GMT -5
Other teams could certainly play their way out. But the key thing is we have to remember that we need not only for teams currently in to play their way out, but we also need other teams currently out not to play their way in ahead of us. If we win twice, we do have those 6 top 50 wins (unless Xavier falls out, which they could do with a neutral loss to Marquette). The Providence/St. John's winner could also clinch a top 50 RPI with a win vs. Nova, which would net us another top 50 win, but also potentially at the expense of a bubble spot.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 10, 2014 10:35:59 GMT -5
Yeah, we also have to pay attention to the WCC. If Gonzaga or BYU dont win, that would be bad....
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 10, 2014 11:16:29 GMT -5
Two wins and in. Apologies to Don Ho but this is a tiny bubble and it makes me happy. Lunardi literally had to just throw in a next four out team to make it to four (LA Tech has zero shot at a 70 RPI and one top 50 win).
Every Big East scenario helps us because Providence-St. Johns is an elimination game and a Xavier loss drops one of our top 50 wins but also drops them behind us in RPI. A Xavier win and our win versus them gets stronger. Can't lose.
Beat Creighton and the Hoyas would be top 36 at-large teams in RPI, top 20 amongst all teams in top 50 wins, and have done this against a top 10 SOS. No way we're out with that resume.
Edit: I think people are married to this "safe" idea for borderline teams. Pitt, Stanford, Iowa... none of these teams can afford to lose. If all the last four out teams or next four out teams improve their resume, the committee doesn't care where teams are today. They'll judge Sunday.
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jgalt
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Post by jgalt on Mar 10, 2014 11:33:29 GMT -5
Maybe this will make some of you feel better: regressing.deadspin.com/this-model-has-predicted-73-of-74-ncaa-tournament-at-la-1539942851/@reubenfbSuper thin margin for error. And it confirms the concerns that have already been brought up: have to win in BET, other Auto-bids can ruin it for us, etc. That model also points to there being only 4 teams truly on the bubble: SMU, Gtown, Tenn, Minnesota. Its really terrible that Gtown is on the bubble, but it isnt impossible to get into the NCAAs right now.
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KHoyaNYC
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Post by KHoyaNYC on Mar 10, 2014 11:45:24 GMT -5
Two wins and we are 95% assured of a berth. Our RPI at that point will be 47, and we'll easily have more top 50 RPI wins than any other bubble contender. Here is the list of the highest rated RPI teams to miss the tournament from a major conference since the RPI formula was modified in 2006:
2013: 57 – Kentucky (not counting UCONN who was ineligible) 2012: 57 – West Virginia 2011: 58 – Boston College 2010: 55 – Mississippi St 2009: 54 – Florida 2008: 46 – Mississippi (this one is an estimate but it was in mid 40s) 2007: 41 – Florida St 2006: 40 – Cincinnati
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Post by Problem of Dog on Mar 10, 2014 12:16:24 GMT -5
This is a sad discussion. We are terrible. We do not deserve to be in the tournament. Georgetown should be the poster child for moving the tourney back to 64 teams.
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