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Post by aleutianhoya on Mar 5, 2014 8:49:38 GMT -5
The win against Creighton puts us back in the mix. Here are the 10 or so teams with whom we appear to be competing for the last 3 or so spots. Feel free to add and update. I've put them in rough order of where I think they are now with the top 3 being in the play-in game. Obviously, things can change, but it's nearly impossible to see how we don't pass most or all of these teams with a win @ Nova. That coupled with anything but a very bad BET loss puts us safely in IMHO. If we lose to 'Nova, we still match up with the resumes of most of these teams reasonably well. None has more than 3 top-50 wins; we have 5 (none has a 200+ loss either, of course.)
The numbers are: RPI / SOS Record (overall / conference) Top 50 record / Top 100 record Bad losses Remaining Games
Providence 51/62 20-10 / 10-7 2-5 / 8-9 1 loss to 100+ team Remaining: @ Creighton; BET
California 54 / 40 18-11 / 9-7 3-9 / 6-9 2 losses to 100+ Remaining: Utah; Colo.; PAC Tourney
Dayton 47 / 68 20-9 / 8-6 3-5 / 7-6 3 losses to 100+ Remaining: @ St.L; Rich; A-10
Georgetown 56 / 14 17-12 / 8-9 5-5 / 7-9 2 losses to 100+ team and 1 loss to 200+ team Remaining: & Nova; BET
Missouri 52 / 82 20-9 / 8-8 2-2 / 8-8 1 loss to 100+ team TAM; @ Tenn; SEC Tourney
Minnesota 46 / 4 17-12 / 7-10 3-7 / 6-10 2 losses to 100+ Penn State; B10
Nebraska 59 / 46 17-11 / 9-7 3-7 / 6-8 3 losses to 100+ @ Indiana; Wisc.; B10
Tennessee 49 / 19 17-11 / 9-7 2-5 / 7-9 2 losses to 100+
Florida State 57 / 56 18-11 / 9-8 2-7 / 5-10 1 loss to 100+ Cuse; ACC
St. John's 63 / 47 19-11 (9-8) 1-7 / 5-9 2 lossess to 100+ team & Quette; BET
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Mar 5, 2014 10:36:12 GMT -5
How many of our Top 50 wins are in the Top 25 RPI?
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Post by aleutianhoya on Mar 5, 2014 10:40:39 GMT -5
How many of our Top 50 wins are in the Top 25 RPI? We are 3-3 against the Top 25. There is some risk the Mich. State. win will end up not being in there, but they are as of now. Similarly, there's some chance Oregon gets into the top 25. (There's also an outside chance K. State climbs in.) We obviously get another crack at one on Saturday. I didn't compare our numbers to those of the competition, but there's no way that anyone else had 3 Top 25 wins. No one has more than 3 Top 50 wins.
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Jack
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Post by Jack on Mar 5, 2014 10:42:25 GMT -5
How many of our Top 50 wins are in the Top 25 RPI? Looks like 3-3 to me with wins against 8 (Creighton) 15 (VCU) and 23 (Michigan St.) and losses to 2 (Kansas) and 4 (Villanova).
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guru
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Post by guru on Mar 5, 2014 10:42:31 GMT -5
How many of our Top 50 wins are in the Top 25 RPI? 3 - Creighton, VCU, Sparty
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Post by BeantownHoya on Mar 5, 2014 10:51:30 GMT -5
Another factor that is going to be bigger then ever for us is conference tourneys. We really need the Green Bay's (RPI 48), Toledo's (RPI 40), North Dakota St's (RPI 44)of the worlds to win their tournaments and not have to then rely on the committee to choose us over them. Just add's more teams to the bubble group and not what we need at this point.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 5, 2014 10:59:20 GMT -5
Another factor that is going to be bigger then ever for us is conference tourneys. We really need the Green Bay's (RPI 48), Toledo's (RPI 40), North Dakota St's (RPI 44)of the worlds to win their tournaments and not have to then rely on the committee to choose us over them. Just add's more teams to the bubble group and not what we need at this point. I think all those teams are out if they don't win the their respective tournaments. They just don't have the top 50 wins. GB beat UVA but that by itself isn't enough. The others have zero top 50 wins. The dicey ones are the WCC or MWC with someone outside the top 2 winning it all. The granddaddy of all bubble-poppers is of course WSU losing in the MWC.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Mar 6, 2014 8:40:05 GMT -5
Mostly bad results last night:
The Good:
Utah beat Cal (Utah is a fringe bubble candidate but probably not a threat)
The Bad:
Tennessee beat a terrible Auburn team (nothing more than avoiding a bad loss). Nebraska beat Indiana -- a decent win for them.
The Ugly:
Dayton won at SLU, which is a huge win for them. Missouri beat a bad TA&M team at home (never leading until 7 seconds left; I call it ugly because it's a missed opportunity for GU)
All in all, a net negative. Dayton moves ahead of us and same with Nebraska (both may already have been ahead of us). Missouri could have been eliminated with a loss. Cal probably moves behind us but within striking distance. Tennessee probably is still behind us.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 6, 2014 10:18:12 GMT -5
Thanks for compiling that.
I really think people are underestimating how big it would be for us to play Providence/Xavier in the BET. Right now, almost all polls have Providence and Xavier as just in. Both have tough remaining games, Xavier(Nova) and Providence(@creighton). If we beat Nova and one of them, I think we are in. That serves 3 purposes - a top 50-60 win, a BET semifinal appearance, and stopping a fellow bubble team from advancing. Go Marquette...
Beating Butler does nothing but gets us another date with Creighton. Pass....
The other team I would really add to that mix is Pitt. I suppose people are giving them a pass because of their volume of wins, but they 1-6 against the top 50, and only 5-8 against the top 100. The S-Curve website GIGA pointed to definitely had them in the danger zone. If they lose 1-2 more bad games, they could be that surprise team left out. I hope so.
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canissaxa
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Post by canissaxa on Mar 6, 2014 10:49:40 GMT -5
I suppose this is all academic until this weekend, but I worry that we are falling into the classic trap of bubble teams. Namely, cherry picking our best stat, in this case, record versus the top 25 or top 50. Fans of competing programs are likely talking about bad losses, RPI, overall record, etc.
Everyone is spinning their favorite stats other than the committee.
I do think we should be in with Nova + 1 BET win, but I am worried that I'm seeing the world with Hoya-colored glasses and won't really feel comfortable until after I hear our name called.
Again, as excited as I am after Creighton, I'm trying to temper my excitement until after Nova. Hoyas looked great at home, but refs have rarely let us play like that brand of aggressive, physical defense all season and never on the road. Will be a tough tough win.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 6, 2014 11:09:41 GMT -5
Yeah, i pretty much agree with all of that. Beating Nova is the most important, and hardest part. I actually think we might have a better chance of winning 3 BET games on a neutral floor than beating Nova on the road when you know Hopkins and Lubick will have 6 fouls in the first 15 minutes.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Mar 6, 2014 11:58:59 GMT -5
For what it's worth, I think the Big East is getting screwed because of the fact that so many of the middle teams are good but not great. As a result, there is a fair amount of parity, which is why some brackets have us with 3 bids, and the A-10 with six.
Even if you look at the AAC, it's similar. Teams like Connecticut do not have terribly impressive conference records when you consider that they had multiple games and wins against the likes of USF, UCF, Houston, and Temple. If Georgetown was playing in that league, we'd probably have more wins, too. But that's not the way the bracketologists always look at things.
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Mar 6, 2014 12:17:25 GMT -5
Thanks for compiling that. I really think people are underestimating how big it would be for us to play Providence/Xavier in the BET. Right now, almost all polls have Providence and Xavier as just in. Both have tough remaining games, Xavier(Nova) and Providence(@creighton). If we beat Nova and one of them, I think we are in. That serves 3 purposes - a top 50-60 win, a BET semifinal appearance, and stopping a fellow bubble team from advancing. Go Marquette... Beating Butler does nothing but gets us another date with Creighton. Pass.... The other team I would really add to that mix is Pitt. I suppose people are giving them a pass because of their volume of wins, but they 1-6 against the top 50, and only 5-8 against the top 100. The S-Curve website GIGA pointed to definitely had them in the danger zone. If they lose 1-2 more bad games, they could be that surprise team left out. I hope so. I still feel confident that beating 'nova, then Butler, gets us in; beating the top 3 teams in the conference down the stretch, including 2 top 15 teams, would make a loss to Creighton (or 'nova) in the BET irrelevant. Beating 'nova but then losing to Xavier or provy could be a little bit of a problem. If you can guarantee me a WIN over Xavier/Provy, of course, I will go that way.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 6, 2014 12:18:01 GMT -5
If we had split with Marquette and Seton Hall, we'd be almost a lock. We have 5 top 50 wins. The only reason we are on the bubble is our own doing. We lost 3 pretty bad games.
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Post by triplehoya09 on Mar 6, 2014 12:21:15 GMT -5
Agree that the Big East is somewhat getting screwed. How does Lunardi's bracket compare to others? As was said before, this is all academic pending the NOVA game but what the hell else do I have to do?
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CaliHoya
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Post by CaliHoya on Mar 6, 2014 12:39:57 GMT -5
Tonight is huge for us - we all should root for Nova so that they have wrapped up the conference title PRIOR to playing us. Less motivation versus the desperate Hoya team.
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hoyainspirit
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Post by hoyainspirit on Mar 6, 2014 12:57:47 GMT -5
As others pointed out previously, all games are important at this time of the year. 'Nova, if nothing else, is playing for seeding. Not sure loss of motivation if they win tonight will be an issue on Sat.
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Mar 6, 2014 13:22:37 GMT -5
I think there is a little less motivation if they win tonight; a conference title is always one of the goals for the top teams going in, and there is a natural easing of intensity once that is accomplished. At eh same time, it is their Senior Day, which is always a motivator - as we just saw Tuesday. While seeding is a consideration, winning the BET is going to be a bigger factor than Saturday's game.
In any event, we know it will be an incredible battle to pull out the win Saturday. Our Hoyas should be as hungry as is possible, so I know they will give incredible effort. Hoya Saxa.
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Jack
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Post by Jack on Mar 6, 2014 13:27:12 GMT -5
For what it's worth, I think the Big East is getting screwed because of the fact that so many of the middle teams are good but not great. As a result, there is a fair amount of parity, which is why some brackets have us with 3 bids, and the A-10 with six. Even if you look at the AAC, it's similar. Teams like Connecticut do not have terribly impressive conference records when you consider that they had multiple games and wins against the likes of USF, UCF, Houston, and Temple. If Georgetown was playing in that league, we'd probably have more wins, too. But that's not the way the bracketologists always look at things. According to KenPom rankings (still the best I know of), the Big East and A-10 are fairly comparable in terms of tournament teams, with the Big East having the better teams at the top and then very comparable teams down to 6th place. There is no reason the A-10 should get twice as many bids. The breakdown is: Big East: Nova (7), Creighton (9), St. John's (40), Xavier (43), Georgetown (49), Providence (54), Marquette (58), then Seton Hall is 79 and DePaul and Butler are the only teams below 100 A-10: VCU (17), St. Louis (37), GW (42), UMass (46), St. Joseph's (55), Dayton (56), then St. Bonaventure (86) and Richmond (88) before dropping off below 100. By contrast, the AAC has a very clear haves and have-nots structure that should get them 5 bids to the NCAA and probably 0 bids to the NIT. AAC: Louisville (4), Cincinnati (18), SMU (24), UCon (27), Memphis (38) - the next best team is Houston (126), then the rest of the conference is below 160
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MassHoya
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Post by MassHoya on Mar 6, 2014 13:28:50 GMT -5
+1
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