calhoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by calhoya on Jan 5, 2015 10:16:58 GMT -5
Hoyas' offense actually does allow for the open three point opportunity when it's run well. The problem this year is that the ball movement has been slow, too much dribbling around the perimeter and the other teams do not respect the open 3 point shot from anyone other than DSR. As a result there have been numerous opportunities for players like Trawick, Bowen, Peak and White to take the open 3 pt shot. Peak has taken several and missed (at least until recently) and White has taken some, but Bowen and Jabril have passed up several. Interestingly, Bowen shoots 3's at the same percentage as White and much better than Peak, Copeland or Tre and Trawick is the most accurate 3 point shooter on the team. Yet, neither is someone you want taking this shot on a regular basis. Over the years under JT III there have been numerous players who benefited from the offense and had 3 point skills. Just right now, we have a shortage of these type of kids.
On defense, players are either not fighting through the screen, not quick enough to guard their man or not making the switch to pick up the open man. Creighton ran the pick and roll against the Hoyas over and over and but for some poor shooting would have been very successful. When the Hoyas go to zone, it does help close down the inside game but that may have as much to do with protecting our centers from foul trouble as it does anything else. The price we pay is that if the other team moves the ball well it will create open looks against the zone.
I hope that Reggie gets a chance to shoot his way out of this slump. You can tell from watching him that this kid has a natural shooting stroke, unlike Domingo. The criticisms about his defense are mostly based upon last year. He has lost some weight and is notably quicker than last year. He is by no means a plus defender and may never be, but then again in a zone he appears to be competent. One problem I admit is that his best position now appears to be at the 3 and in that regard he is clearly behind White, Bowen, and Trawick. That alone may explain the minutes he gets.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Jan 5, 2015 10:37:50 GMT -5
In reverse, Thompson's defense always seems to be always looking to defend the inside game. Then, when the open man in the corner gets a clean look for a three, we have someone running out after him. It's always too late and it makes the defender look like he does not know what he's doing. At times I am not sure if Thompson appreciates the value of the three point shot. We don't shoot it well and we don't defend it well. The college game of basketball is all about the three. Of course, someone often is running out at someone behind the three point line...that's what you want! Otherwise, if that player is on the backside, he's not in help position. You just want it to be quick and under control. As the other poster points out, the problem largely has been due to over-help caused by challenges we have on the screen-roll, largely when Josh is in the game. This year, we have not been good defending the three, but we haven't been horrific either. We are 151st in the nation and eighth in the league. Historically, we actually are VERY GOOD against the three, so the not uncommon refrain that JTIII doesn't understand how to defend it is, well, simply wrong. Last year we were 122nd nationally. Not great by any means, but then again, it was our worst team in years. In 12-13? Top 50 nationally and less than 20 major-conference teams were better. 11-12? The single best three-point defense in the country!We weren't as good as that the years before that, but we were right around top 100 nationally with relatively few major conference teams ahead of us. (Remember, low conference teams are going to largely dominate statistics like this because they are often playing against teams with worse overall shooters.) My guess is we improve in this metric as the year goes on, but it's going to be hard to be terrific at it this year if we keep playing man and Josh keeps getting high minutes, simply because we are going to continue requiring help off of the screens.
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Post by HometownHoya on Jan 5, 2015 11:45:42 GMT -5
An admittedly selective list of alleged "shooters" at GU in the 3-pt era: A. Stoudamire 31.2%, 48 attempts I. Church 30%, 94 attempts J. Nichols 30%, 120 attempts J. Thornton 50%, 4 attempts O. Wattad 29.6%, 54 attempts N. Mescheriakov 25.5%, 47 attempts S. Domingo, 11%, 27 attempts R. Cameron, 31%, 97 attempts Hollis Thompson? Thanks for bringing that up though. Seems like we've missed on more shooters then we've hit on.
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Post by hoyalove4ever on Jan 5, 2015 12:18:46 GMT -5
I think Reggie can improve to 35-40% on his next 100 attempts. Let it fly, baby!
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jan 5, 2015 13:04:43 GMT -5
I don't think the problem is that JT3 doesn't value three point shooting, I think he realizes that we don't have any players that excel at doing so. He had no probably letting the following players shoot plenty of shots. Wright also shot a large volume of threes, but only at 34%.
Austin Freeman: 38.1$, 187-491 Jason Clark: 36.3%, 183-504 Hollis Thompson: 44.4%, 128-291 Jon Wallace: 43.3%, 240-554
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Post by Problem of Dog on Jan 5, 2015 13:36:33 GMT -5
In reverse, Thompson's defense always seems to be always looking to defend the inside game. Then, when the open man in the corner gets a clean look for a three, we have someone running out after him. It's always too late and it makes the defender look like he does not know what he's doing. At times I am not sure if Thompson appreciates the value of the three point shot. We don't shoot it well and we don't defend it well. The college game of basketball is all about the three. Of course, someone often is running out at someone behind the three point line...that's what you want! Otherwise, if that player is on the backside, he's not in help position. You just want it to be quick and under control. As the other poster points out, the problem largely has been due to over-help caused by challenges we have on the screen-roll, largely when Josh is in the game. This year, we have not been good defending the three, but we haven't been horrific either. We are 151st in the nation and eighth in the league. Historically, we actually are VERY GOOD against the three, so the not uncommon refrain that JTIII doesn't understand how to defend it is, well, simply wrong. Last year we were 122nd nationally. Not great by any means, but then again, it was our worst team in years. In 12-13? Top 50 nationally and less than 20 major-conference teams were better. 11-12? The single best three-point defense in the country!We weren't as good as that the years before that, but we were right around top 100 nationally with relatively few major conference teams ahead of us. (Remember, low conference teams are going to largely dominate statistics like this because they are often playing against teams with worse overall shooters.) My guess is we improve in this metric as the year goes on, but it's going to be hard to be terrific at it this year if we keep playing man and Josh keeps getting high minutes, simply because we are going to continue requiring help off of the screens. Three point defense is largely a myth: kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/3_point_defense_should_not_be_defined_by_opponents_3p
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Post by aleutianhoya on Jan 5, 2015 14:13:20 GMT -5
Of course, someone often is running out at someone behind the three point line...that's what you want! Otherwise, if that player is on the backside, he's not in help position. You just want it to be quick and under control. As the other poster points out, the problem largely has been due to over-help caused by challenges we have on the screen-roll, largely when Josh is in the game. This year, we have not been good defending the three, but we haven't been horrific either. We are 151st in the nation and eighth in the league. Historically, we actually are VERY GOOD against the three, so the not uncommon refrain that JTIII doesn't understand how to defend it is, well, simply wrong. Last year we were 122nd nationally. Not great by any means, but then again, it was our worst team in years. In 12-13? Top 50 nationally and less than 20 major-conference teams were better. 11-12? The single best three-point defense in the country!We weren't as good as that the years before that, but we were right around top 100 nationally with relatively few major conference teams ahead of us. (Remember, low conference teams are going to largely dominate statistics like this because they are often playing against teams with worse overall shooters.) My guess is we improve in this metric as the year goes on, but it's going to be hard to be terrific at it this year if we keep playing man and Josh keeps getting high minutes, simply because we are going to continue requiring help off of the screens. Three point defense is largely a myth: kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/3_point_defense_should_not_be_defined_by_opponents_3pI've seen that before, POD, but thanks for posting it. For sure, a significant portion of all this is simply limiting an opponents' attempts from three -- the more twos they take, the less opportunity to get three points, obviously. But I don't find Pomeroy's evidence particularly convincing with respect to percentage defense being largely a myth. The difference between good and bad shrinks over time, and there's reversion to the mean, but there's still variance. And the difference between 40% and 35% may only mean one or two (at most) made threes a game, but that's still three to six points each game, which is quite significant. He may be right, but I think you'd have to do a lot more statistical work to figure it out. In any event, I certainly agree that limiting threes taken is vital, and that to a certain degree, you're always reliant on open threes not going in, since any team is going to get its share of open looks.
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Post by ColumbiaHeightsHoya on Jan 5, 2015 14:16:31 GMT -5
Reggie needs to be a 45% + three point shooter considering his deficiencies in other aspects of the game. His competition for playing time, Isaac & Paul, can provide 35% three point shooting while adding other aspects to the game via defense, ball-handling, rebounding, etc. When we play a team like Creighton where it seems like every guy can shoot, I always wonder why we can't have one of those. I also hope that next year when Tre Mourning is bigger and can handle the banging on the inside, that he can be one of these stretch shooter types as well. He is the forgotten link in this class that I think can & will improve in year two.
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hoyainspirit
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Post by hoyainspirit on Jan 5, 2015 14:28:53 GMT -5
Reggie needs to be a 45% + three point shooter considering his deficiencies in other aspects of the game. His competition for playing time, Isaac & Paul, can provide 35% three point shooting while adding other aspects to the game via defense, ball-handling, rebounding, etc. When we play a team like Creighton where it seems like every guy can shoot, I always wonder why we can't have one of those. I also hope that next year when Tre Mourning is bigger and can handle the banging on the inside, that he can be one of these stretch shooter types as well. He is the forgotten link in this class that I think can & will improve in year two. I, along with everyone else, wish Reggie, or anyone, would shoot 45% from 3. But as 2003 points out above, few, if any, have shot that successfully. I will settle for competent, better than average, from Reggie. That would be a tremendous improvement for the team.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Jan 5, 2015 14:29:42 GMT -5
I've seen that before, POD, but thanks for posting it. For sure, a significant portion of all this is simply limiting an opponents' attempts from three -- the more twos they take, the less opportunity to get three points, obviously. But I don't find Pomeroy's evidence particularly convincing with respect to percentage defense being largely a myth. The difference between good and bad shrinks over time, and there's reversion to the mean, but there's still variance. And the difference between 40% and 35% may only mean one or two (at most) made threes a game, but that's still three to six points each game, which is quite significant. He may be right, but I think you'd have to do a lot more statistical work to figure it out. In any event, I certainly agree that limiting threes taken is vital, and that to a certain degree, you're always reliant on open threes not going in, since any team is going to get its share of open looks. Agree. There's definitely something to remembering that you are playing against an opponent, and that that opponent will react to your defense. As such, it makes total sense that many teams react to good three point defense by not shooting the three pointer that's being defended well. And it makes total sense that that is more common (i.e. the discretionary non-shot) from three than down low or even a long two (which I'd argue are most common with the shot clock running down). You also have better shooters more willing to take take better guarded shots, etc. That said, just as much as that logically rings true, the rest of it rings a bit hollow. The effect can be minimized by discrete choice by the shooting team, but no team takes only wide open threes. And contesting a shot works. And the methodology is particularly likely to get the signal lost in the noise. I know why he did 1st half/2nd half -- same players, same opponents, same conditions more or less. But shooting is high variance and three point shooting even more so. Three point shooting over a half is going to have so much noise ... and it isn't noise that will drop out by combining a lot of games, because he's saying within game correlation is low. Someone can correct me if I am wrong. A better study would be over longer stretches and adjusting for competition, I think.
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tashoya
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Post by tashoya on Jan 5, 2015 19:57:34 GMT -5
Out of curiosity, since a guy like Reggie is reportedly better in practice, outside of the situation, is the venue a factor? More specifically, do the guys have any access to the Verizon Center (schedule permitting) to get shots up? I get that most guys wouldn't make the short trip to get their individual shots up but is that even an option? I've always assumed the answer is no.
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Post by detmut on Jan 5, 2015 21:55:41 GMT -5
The reality seems to be that he doesn't do anything really well. At least not yet. He needs to be a knockdown shooter or be a plus defender or he will sit. I'd be very surprised if he's ever a plus defender because he's both not very agile and somewhat slow. If he bulks up and can rebound, that would be a huge plus too. I've mentioned before that I'm impressed that he actively looks to box out someone, anyone when shots go up. I love seeing that. We need more of that. There might have been some validity to the free throw argument if he had a large enough sample size to know how good he is at free throws. It would, however, be nice to have another option other than DSR to get the ball to in crunch time. As others have mentioned, while it's great for the team the more Copeland and White develop, it's not good for Cameron personally. We've been saying "he only needs to knock down a few shots" for over a year now. He's not knocking them down. His form looks OK though he doesn't seem to finish well some of the time (he tends to drift to the right) and, this year anyway, his distance doesn't seem great either. I haven't looked but I'd guess that his percentage from 3 is lower than it was last year. Again, small sample size and, from what I've seen, it looks like he's on the floor to take open threes when he comes in this year. Last year, that wasn't as much the case. At the least, that's not what he did most of the time. Now when he comes on the floor, within the first possession or two, he's shooting. That wasn't the case for most of last year. Fingers crossed that he can turn it around because a great shooter changes the complexion of this team considerably. he is 20 of 25 in his college career. how many attempts do you need?
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tashoya
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Post by tashoya on Jan 5, 2015 23:18:59 GMT -5
The reality seems to be that he doesn't do anything really well. At least not yet. He needs to be a knockdown shooter or be a plus defender or he will sit. I'd be very surprised if he's ever a plus defender because he's both not very agile and somewhat slow. If he bulks up and can rebound, that would be a huge plus too. I've mentioned before that I'm impressed that he actively looks to box out someone, anyone when shots go up. I love seeing that. We need more of that. There might have been some validity to the free throw argument if he had a large enough sample size to know how good he is at free throws. It would, however, be nice to have another option other than DSR to get the ball to in crunch time. As others have mentioned, while it's great for the team the more Copeland and White develop, it's not good for Cameron personally. We've been saying "he only needs to knock down a few shots" for over a year now. He's not knocking them down. His form looks OK though he doesn't seem to finish well some of the time (he tends to drift to the right) and, this year anyway, his distance doesn't seem great either. I haven't looked but I'd guess that his percentage from 3 is lower than it was last year. Again, small sample size and, from what I've seen, it looks like he's on the floor to take open threes when he comes in this year. Last year, that wasn't as much the case. At the least, that's not what he did most of the time. Now when he comes on the floor, within the first possession or two, he's shooting. That wasn't the case for most of last year. Fingers crossed that he can turn it around because a great shooter changes the complexion of this team considerably. he is 20 of 25 in his college career. how many attempts do you need? Well, by that logic, from 3 this year he's 5-19. As a shooter off the bench, by that sample size, he should never play. They're both fairly low sample sizes. Free throws? I'd say 50 is a good sample. 25 is an indicator but I wouldn't call it defining. And he's shot a grand total of 7 this year. Year to year there will be differentials. Keep in mind, this is a guy that everyone keeps saying likely has confidence issues. If that's the case, I absolutely would not want him shooting free throws down the stretch of a tight game.
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hoyainspirit
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Post by hoyainspirit on Jan 5, 2015 23:39:57 GMT -5
I would. Reggie is one of the few I do want at the line.
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rockhoya
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Post by rockhoya on Jan 6, 2015 0:29:58 GMT -5
Reggie has the second best ft stroke on our team, easily.
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tashoya
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Post by tashoya on Jan 6, 2015 0:36:58 GMT -5
Reggie has the second best ft stroke on our team, easily. I don't think anyone disputes his stroke either from the free throw line or from three.
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rockhoya
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Post by rockhoya on Jan 6, 2015 10:08:49 GMT -5
Reggie has the second best ft stroke on our team, easily. I don't think anyone disputes his stroke either from the free throw line or from three. Two posts above me someone directly disputes it....
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hoyazeke
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Post by hoyazeke on Jan 6, 2015 10:56:16 GMT -5
The reason I believe that we need a confident Reggie is because he is really the only player on our team that has NBA 3 range. Reggie has the ability to make defenses stretch out that extra 3-4ft. You don't have to be as quick or as good off the bounce when you can stroke it from 23ft.
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rockhoya
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Post by rockhoya on Jan 6, 2015 11:00:23 GMT -5
The reason I believe that we need a confident Reggie is because he is really the only player on our team that has NBA 3 range. Reggie has the ability to make defenses stretch out that extra 3-4ft. You don't have to be as quick or as good off the bounce when you can stroke it from 23ft. Agreed. And honestly if I had to peg anyone else on our roster as haying NBA range of pick Tre. His bomb was not a fluke, thought it was going in from the second he set his feet. Not saying he should take that shot regularly, just that his stroke also seems translatable to the NBA 3 point line.
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This Just In
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Post by This Just In on Jan 6, 2015 11:09:24 GMT -5
Quote from the Creighton Game Thread:
I wanted context about Reggie Cameron's 3pt. shooting this year.
Reggie Cameron stats this year in comparison to Aaron Bowen's from the 3pt line.
Reggie Cameron 5/19 3pt FG's 26.3% Aaron Bowen 5/11 3pt FG's 45.5% The narrative insists Reggie Cameron is a good 3pt shooter.
I believe Reggie Cameron should just concentrate on making shots and everything else may fall into place.
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