blueeagle
Bulldog (over 250 posts)
Win or lose, it's the school we choose.
Posts: 492
|
Post by blueeagle on Mar 19, 2013 12:49:46 GMT -5
Funny that the talking heads at ESPN or CBS really haven't jumped on the Duke bandwagon this year. Losing twice to Maryland may have something to do with it. Their out-of-conference performance was impressive. But that was way back in 2012.
I really haven't seen much of Duke this year. Of the games I have caught, they seemed very effective when Sulaimon was hitting shots. I think he, more so than Kelly, will be the key to their tourney fate. Sulaimon reminds me of Nolan Smith - undersized guard who just competes hard and can make game-changing plays. When he hasn't played well, they have lost. Plumlee just isn't that good. Kelly is streaky and vulnerable to atheltic bigs. Curry is talented but injured. Hard for him to recover in quick turn-around games. I have them beating Creighton but losing to Sparty.
How can you bet against Izzo?
Pitino has his guys drinking the Kool Aid again. He has this formula of tearing down his star guards in the middle of the season only to inspire them and prop them up to play their best basketball at the end of the season. Amazing Jedi-mind trickery! You can almost set your watch to it. He is like the father character in Inception.
|
|
Boz
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
123 Fireballs!
Posts: 10,355
|
Post by Boz on Mar 19, 2013 12:52:32 GMT -5
Not getting all the Kansas love. They have some weapons, sure, but they have been very inconsistent. If (spits three times into wind) we were to see them, we would rightly be afraid of Withey b/c of the matchup problem. But we would do an awfully good job denying him the ball. Will be less than surprised if Huckleberry Hound uses McAdoo to pull Withey away from the rim and then tries to draw contact on the blow by. McLemore is also a big concern, no doubt. Have tons of respect for Self, but they are not the strongest 1 seed I have seen. If you are referring to the most recent linked article, it's probably worth noting that Eric Angevine grew up in Lawrence, KS.
|
|
blueeagle
Bulldog (over 250 posts)
Win or lose, it's the school we choose.
Posts: 492
|
Post by blueeagle on Mar 19, 2013 13:40:21 GMT -5
I agree with one of the talking heads that said that there is a clear separation between the 1,2,3 seeds vs. the double digit seeds. It is true that there aren't dominant teams in the field. I think that there are about 8-10 teams than have a legitimate chance to win it all. And that's where the parity lies.
My only Cinderella this year is Bucknell making it to the Sweet Sixteen. I like their big guy who looks like a potential pro. I don't consider Gonzaga a cinderella but I do not have them making a deep run. I think Michigan's guards will be able to handle VCU's Havoc. I would not mind seeing VCU again, by the way.
The NCAA committee keeps trying to see a KU vs. Hoyas match-up. We have always stood them up. I think we send an RSVP this year.
|
|
TBird41
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
"Roy! I Love All 7'2" of you Roy!"
Posts: 8,740
|
Post by TBird41 on Mar 19, 2013 14:37:17 GMT -5
I agree with one of the talking heads that said that there is a clear separation between the 1,2,3 seeds vs. the double digit seeds. It is true that there aren't dominant teams in the field. I think that there are about 8-10 teams than have a legitimate chance to win it all. And that's where the parity lies. My only Cinderella this year is Bucknell making it to the Sweet Sixteen. I like their big guy who looks like a potential pro. I don't consider Gonzaga a cinderella but I do not have them making a deep run. I think Michigan's guards will be able to handle VCU's Havoc. I would not mind seeing VCU again, by the way. The NCAA committee keeps trying to see a KU vs. Hoyas match-up. We have always stood them up. I think we send an RSVP this year. I feel like its Kansas' turn to lose their invitation ;D
|
|
bmartin
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 2,459
|
Post by bmartin on Mar 19, 2013 15:23:25 GMT -5
Looking at KenPom, a few odd observations.
Georgetown was 9-4 in games when its offensive efficiency was below 100 (i.e. less than 1 point per possession). Thirteen such games means that the offense struggled at times, but 9 wins means the defense could rise up and get enough stops to win.
None of the other top 20 seeded teams had more wins with a sub 100 OE. Elsewhere in the field, New Mexico also was 9-4 with OE under 100. Michigan State 8-4. Saint Louis 7-4.
In our region, Kansas was 5-4; Florida 0-6; Michigan 1-4; VCU 2-4.
You could look at that stat two ways. On one hand, that shows that Georgetown and those other teams with 7-9 wins have had quite a few offensive duds. On the other hand, even when they were stopped they were very hard to beat. Whereas, if you stop Florida or Michigan, they can't beat you.
Florida is KenPom's #1 team because they win big and lose close. The 26 wins were all by double digits with 10 points being the lowest margin of victory. The 7 losses were by 11, 6, 6, 4, 3, 3, 1. (And if you watched any of them, they had 2nd half leads in most of the losses.)
|
|
blueeagle
Bulldog (over 250 posts)
Win or lose, it's the school we choose.
Posts: 492
|
Post by blueeagle on Mar 19, 2013 17:25:35 GMT -5
The thing about the Gators is that they really have not strung together wins against good competition. Their win against Marquette looks pretty impressive. But losses to Kentucky and Tennessee? I do not think they have a go to guy who can extract them from a tight spot.
I am not sure they are any different from who they were at e start of the season. Sure, injuries disrupted their flow throughout the season. But I think they lack leadership.
Did I just look in the mirror and say Sandman three times waking the sleeping giant, hifi?
|
|
jgalt
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,380
|
Post by jgalt on Mar 19, 2013 17:40:31 GMT -5
Thoughts on Louisville vs. Duke? I have to think those two teams make it to the Elite Eight. They both seem as hot as anyone right now and their coaches obviously have been there before. But struggling to decide who wins that one. I want to think Duke is overrated, because the ACC is not good this year so we haven't really seen them play quality competition in a while, but they do seem to have a solid team with Kelly out there. I have Creighton beating Duke. I think they are a bad match-up for the Dukies. They have the highest field-goal percentage in the country, pass the ball well, and can shoot it well from 3. I think Duke's overplay defense plays right into Creighton hands. They will have problems defending Duke too, so we will see. I also have Creighton taking down Duke. The reason, in addition to the above, is what I mentioned earlier about Set Curry and his injury. But that same logic would apply to a game versus Louisville (second game in two days). Also if you look at the game duke lost against UMD its because they did not shoot well at all (seth curry was the best shooter from outside at 2-7 if i remember correctly). I think Louisville should easily be able to lock down this duke team on defense if they play. Also did everyone know that Karl Hess is the leading scorer in Liberty University history? Also Liberty University has the highest undergraduate enrollment of any school in the tournament.
|
|
hoyarooter
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 10,245
|
Post by hoyarooter on Mar 19, 2013 19:24:02 GMT -5
I just filled out my bracket and have our Hoyas winning it all against Louisville in the final. Delusional? I haven't been this comfortable picking them going deep into the tournament since 2007. I have been hopeful in the previous years, but never truly confident. This year is different. We have shown the ability to win tough games consecutively, and in some cases, come from behind at hostile environments to do so. Winning back-to back games against ND and Luvul. Beating Marquette then Cinci at Cinci. Of course, winning at 'Cuse and beating Uconn in OT. In past years, our quality wins typically occurred out-of-conference or at home. And we struggled to play well after quality wins resulting in some stinkers against lower ranked foes. We could beat Duke and Missouri one night and then lose to USF or Setol Hall. All I am saying is that I do not think this is a year when "we can lose to anybody on any given night." We have shown that we have an elite defense and an efficient offense. We are actually able to create more offense with our defense with our press and our ability to finally run the floor. Though we still value every possession, we are now able to get cheap baskets by fast breaking and by our in-bounds plays. I think that we will struggle if key players get into foul trouble. That's the only way I think we lose to a lower seeded team. Unlike last year when we lost to a more "talented team" that was peaking, our best player this year is better than anyone else's. Our road to the NC will be slow and painful. I anticipate very close games where we outplay our opponents in the last 5-8 minutes of every contest. We likely will need some luck ala Don Reid and Nat Burton to escape some close games. But as the Watch ESPN advert says, the Thompsons are clutch. No monkeys or gorillas this year - just precious hardware. We lost to anybody on a given night last Friday. Can't let it happen again.
|
|
DudeSlade
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
I got through the Esherick years. I can get through anything.
Posts: 1,209
|
Post by DudeSlade on Mar 19, 2013 19:56:18 GMT -5
Real interesting takes on Duke here. Appreciate it. I've been out of the country the last week and miss a lot of the east coast games, since I'm on the west. So this helps a lot. Gotta love the Hoyatalk board.
So here's another one: what are the current prevailing thoughts on Miami? Mid-season I think I would have called the upset on Indiana. But now I'm thinking they might lose to Marquette.
My problem is that I have a hard time buying into Indiana, when I think Zeller can get shoved around and Big East type teams can push them around inside. I'd love a rematch though.
|
|
Boz
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
123 Fireballs!
Posts: 10,355
|
Post by Boz on Mar 19, 2013 20:08:21 GMT -5
I wonder what Ernie Johnson's prom date looks like...
|
|
|
Post by detmut on Mar 19, 2013 20:16:21 GMT -5
Bracket Prep: South Region AnalysisQUOTE: [Should They Falter: #2 Georgetown ( 29-5 ?, 15-5 Big East). Recent history is not on Georgetown’s side as John Thompson III has made a habit of exiting the NCAA Tournament too early. In fact, in the six NCAA Tournaments that JT3 has led the Hoyas to, they haven’t made it past the first weekend four times. The Hoyas won’t win any style points, but that doesn’t much matter. What they lack in flash they have in tough defense and methodical but effective offense. Not to mention that the Hoyas are also fortunate to have Otto Porter, the Big East Player of the Year, on their side. The emergence of Markel Starks as a second dependable scorer adds another dimension to the offense beyond him, though. Their adjusted tempo ranks 313th in the country — in other words, a snail’s pace — and inability to score in stretches on the offensive end doesn’t make them a sexy team to watch, but Georgetown is very comfortable playing grind-it-out kind of games making them an apt postseason team. [/i] RTC picks FL[/quote]
|
|
jgalt
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,380
|
Post by jgalt on Mar 19, 2013 21:03:30 GMT -5
Real interesting takes on Duke here. Appreciate it. I've been out of the country the last week and miss a lot of the east coast games, since I'm on the west. So this helps a lot. Gotta love the Hoyatalk board. So here's another one: what are the current prevailing thoughts on Miami? Mid-season I think I would have called the upset on Indiana. But now I'm thinking they might lose to Marquette. My problem is that I have a hard time buying into Indiana, when I think Zeller can get shoved around and Big East type teams can push them around inside. I'd love a rematch though. For what its worth, most of the stat based models i have seen (like Nate Silver's) have IU with the second best chances to make the final four behind Louisville. Silver's model has it as high as 52%. I have Miami losing to the Marquette (though only pride is on the line in my league). Many computer models have Miami with pretty good chances to make the E8 because Davidson has good chances, on paper, to upset Marquette. My thinking on Miami vs IU is that although Miami is an old team, they dont have tournament experience and at times, when I have watched them, they have gone away from what has worked for them in games (the second duke game was an example of this). There is also the factor that teams that were unranked going into the preseason generally under perform their seed. Indiana is a very complete team with an inside-outside combo, experienced players, and a good coach (even though Crean is a clown). But I wouldnt put the possibility of Miami beating IU out of the question. I just think the likelihood is low.
|
|
hoyarooter
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 10,245
|
Post by hoyarooter on Mar 20, 2013 11:35:24 GMT -5
Do all of these models take into account how teams perform outside of their home arena? I really hope Marquette does well, but Marquette at home and Marquette away from home are two different teams. Will playing in Lexington constitute any sort of advantage for them, since it's not a lengthy trip? If they get to the Sweet 16, will the DC crowd support them, because they're in the (Old and New) Big East? They play much better with the crowd behind them.
|
|
SFHoya99
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 17,791
|
Post by SFHoya99 on Mar 20, 2013 12:06:19 GMT -5
They do, kinda.
Generally they use a standard Home Court Advantage. I've asked Pomeroy before if he's ever considered treating teams as two separate teams -- home and away -- and I think the answer was concerns about sample size (away games would be close to like, 11 games).
But yes, it would overrate teams with very strong HCAs.
|
|
jgalt
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,380
|
Post by jgalt on Mar 20, 2013 12:23:41 GMT -5
Along with SF's answer, Nate Silver's model takes into account distance traveled to play a tournament game.
Quote: "And it accounts for travel distance: teams hauling across the country during the tournament can be playing the equivalent of a road game, whereas a team playing in an arena an hour or so from its campus may effectively be playing a home game"
What is interesting is that St. Mary's traveled through three time zones for the game in Dayton last night, and I heard it reported that they left that morning (which seems crazy to me). It didnt seem to effect their play much. Though the play-in games are different in that the two teams are supposed to be of equal strength so the distance may not be as big of a factor (or maybe it should be more so??).
|
|
blueeagle
Bulldog (over 250 posts)
Win or lose, it's the school we choose.
Posts: 492
|
Post by blueeagle on Mar 20, 2013 12:47:13 GMT -5
Watching SMU and MTS last night made me feel more confident about our chances to go on a run. SMU hit some key shots to pull away but initally built their lead by playing solid D.
The theme for this bball season has been how ugly the college game has become because of the lack of offensive flow in games. Too many bumps, grabs, charges, and fouls to allow the players to run any offense.
I think our defense will help us dictate tempo against any foe in the tourney. Having played very physical teams in the Big East has schooled our guys on how to strech the floor and find mismatches we can exploit. Again, my only concern is foul trouble with aggressive defense.
I cannot wait for this thing to get started.
|
|
|
Post by ColumbiaHeightsHoya on Mar 20, 2013 13:12:56 GMT -5
If we get past the opening weekend, I like our shot against Florida & Kansas. We have done well in close games as pointed out and if we can defend Murphy on the perimeter I think we get past these two teams that are up and down at best. I haven't seen VCU but we have faired well against other teams that rely on turning people over.
|
|
sead43
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 796
|
Post by sead43 on Mar 20, 2013 18:39:56 GMT -5
|
|
hoyarooter
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 10,245
|
Post by hoyarooter on Mar 20, 2013 21:21:18 GMT -5
I wonder what Ernie Johnson's prom date looks like... I don't know about Ernie Johnson, but it looks like that 17 year old SoCal kid is going to be doing pretty well.
|
|
GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,445
|
Post by GUJook97 on Mar 21, 2013 10:49:12 GMT -5
Well, let's just enjoy today before we have to stress about tomorrow Thoughts: -Looks like Marquette is definitely getting the Gtown-Belmont treatment this year. They are only 5 point favorites, and EVERYONE is picking Davidson. I will be rooting for Marquette though. I dont like Buzz, but I hate Davidson more.. -Pitt is definitely the popular pick to win 2 games, but they could easily lose today. -I hope Montana gives Syracuse a good game, but I dont think its going to happen -I think Bucknell-Belmont will be the best game of the day.
|
|