bmartin
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 2,459
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Post by bmartin on Mar 16, 2013 15:24:57 GMT -5
Austin Freeman had a great college career but never had a good NCAA tournament game.
The Ohio and VCU debacles had a lot to do with Freeman not scoring and not being able to guard mid-major guards. Other guys also struggled but Freeman was always an offense for defense trade off.
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sleepy
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,079
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Post by sleepy on Mar 16, 2013 15:26:40 GMT -5
I disagree. If we play our best last year and NC state plays their best, we still lose. 2011 with Chris WITH two healthy hands I agree. However our team sans Chris Wright's right hand our team isn't beating that final four VCU team playing at their best. I also don't think we were playing our absolute best in 2007 during the tournament. We were down by double digits in 3 of our 4 wins that tournament and were really quite fortunate to get win out last two. I think we had been playing better a few weeks before, though we were still a very good team during the tournament obviously. Things just broke right for us that year. You think our best doesn't beat NC State last season? We didn't play very well and still only lost by 3 and it came down to our last possession. IMO, no, assuming NC State plays their best as well. They were a bad match-up with their length. For some reason last season is a bit foggy for me so maybe we were much better than I remember. I just think NC State's best last season was a bit better than ours. Especially since Hollis's shot was never quite the same once he pulled that muscle in his groin, although I believe he had a great game that day. Either way I don't really think that was that bad of a loss. We also aren't helped by the fact that when we do make it to the second round, the lower seeded team always seems to win so our second round losses look even worse than they should. If Davidson was a 7 that season and Gonzaga was the 10 that's not quite the upset. But, of course not.
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calhoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,351
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Post by calhoya on Mar 16, 2013 15:33:06 GMT -5
MCI, good posts. However count me in as one whose expectations have not been lowered or raised by recent games. Since mid-season I have felt that this Team could beat almost everyone likely to be playing in March. I also feel that they could lose to almost anyone playing after the opening game. The Hoya offense keeps games close and low scoring. The Hoya defense does the same. If Otto is off or double-teamed they need Starks and DSR to open up the floor. Hate the short bench but it is apparently the way JT III likes to play. I actually think that the way fouls are called, the inside game and FTs will decide their fate. Hoping for the best but not making plans past next week until I see the draw.
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MCIGuy
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by MCIGuy on Mar 16, 2013 15:55:54 GMT -5
That's fair. Good post. I will only quibble with the overachieving argument for III's first two years in the tourney. Year #1 he had two first round NBA draft picks in his starting lineup. Year #2 he returned both of those guys and added three second round dfrat picks (Summers, Ewing Jr., Macklin). Not to forget he had arguably the program's best three-point shooter for both of those years too. I was really just talking about seeding but I don't really agree that we didn't overachieve in 2006 and 2007. The problem with that is neither Jeff nor Roy were playing at first round draft pick level in 2006. They obviously had the potential but I don't think it's fair to use their future sucess to judge their production at that time against them. We were a 7 seed that year that beat the 2 seed by twenty and lost in the sweet sixteen to a team with 4? draft picks. We definitely overachieved our seed, expectations, and our regular season play in the tournament that year. 2007 we beat a UNC team that was at least as talented and out played our seed. I mean if Hayes or Bolden turn out to be NBA all-star centers would it really be fair to say we had an NBA caliber center this year? Imo, no. Not the same. Did you notice Roy's first two games in that tourney in 2006 especially the one against Ohio State? What about Jeff's performance against Ohio State and Florida? The NBA scouts did. You can bet if either entered their name in the draft that year they would have gone first round based upon potential alone, particularly Jeff. And yes teams are judged down the line by the talent that was playing for the team at the time, regardless of whether those players had reached their college-level peak. As long as they saw floor time they are part of the equation. You don't think Thad Matta can't take some comfort that his #2 seed Ohio State team lost on opening weekend in Dayton to a Gtown team that got major contributions from two eventual NBA first round draft picks? Hayes and Bolden on the other hand never leave the bench so you can't compare them to Roy and Jeff. They could end up being better players and it wouldn't factor in evaluating the '12-'13 team because they never got on the court.
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MCIGuy
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by MCIGuy on Mar 16, 2013 15:58:48 GMT -5
Gotta disagree there. That NC State team wasn't all that which is why they were a #11 seed coming out of the overhyped ACC. Whe ou wrote n your previous post that NC State was just better than Gtown last year I thought you were only arguing that the Pack was better for that one game. I didn't realize you felt NC State was a superior team overall. Years from now I'm pretty confident the player who will be viewed as the best talent from that game will either be Otto Porter or Greg Whittington. Not any of the guys from NC State. When you add in Henry Sims, Hollis Thompson, Jason Clark, Markel Starks, etc., I have no doubt that if the Hoyas played their best they win against the Wolfpack playing at their best. Whittington, huh? Man I hope you're right about that. Goodness it isn't out of the equation. Greg is an extremely talented player with tremendous upside. I wouldn't trade him for any player on last season's NC State team. Including Leslie.
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MCIGuy
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by MCIGuy on Mar 16, 2013 16:00:07 GMT -5
Austin Freeman had a great college career but never had a good NCAA tournament game. The Ohio and VCU debacles had a lot to do with Freeman not scoring and not being able to guard mid-major guards. Other guys also struggled but Freeman was always an offense for defense trade off. Didn't help that Freeman was never the same his junior season following his health crisis.
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sleepy
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,079
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Post by sleepy on Mar 16, 2013 16:09:45 GMT -5
I was really just talking about seeding but I don't really agree that we didn't overachieve in 2006 and 2007. The problem with that is neither Jeff nor Roy were playing at first round draft pick level in 2006. They obviously had the potential but I don't think it's fair to use their future sucess to judge their production at that time against them. We were a 7 seed that year that beat the 2 seed by twenty and lost in the sweet sixteen to a team with 4? draft picks. We definitely overachieved our seed, expectations, and our regular season play in the tournament that year. 2007 we beat a UNC team that was at least as talented and out played our seed. I mean if Hayes or Bolden turn out to be NBA all-star centers would it really be fair to say we had an NBA caliber center this year? Imo, no. Not the same. Did you notice Roy's first two games in that tourney in 2006 especially the one against Ohio State? What about Jeff's performance against Ohio State and Florida? The NBA scouts did. You can bet if either entered their name in the draft that year they would have gone first round based upon potential alone, particularly Jeff. And yes teams are judged down the line by the talent that was playing for the team at the time, regardless of whether those players had reached their college-level peak. As long as they saw floor time they are part of the equation. You don't think Thad Matta can't take some comfort that his #2 seed Ohio State team lost on opening weekend in Dayton to a Gtown team that got major contributions from two eventual NBA first round draft picks? Hayes and Bolden on the other hand never leave the bench so you can't compare them to Roy and Jeff. They could end up being better players and it wouldn't factor in evaluating the '12-'13 team because they never got on the court. Hayes and Bolden were an unfair comparison. Hopkin and Moses wouldn't be as bad though. If they end up turning a corner next year or the year after and becomes a legitimate NBA prospect, I don't think it would be fair to say we had an NBA caliber centers this year. Either way Jeff and Hibbert were much better players, and much more consistent in 2007 than 2006, and I think it is unfair to use their potential against the level they were actually playing at. Yes, they might have been drafted based on that potential, but potential gets you no where in actual games. To say we didn't overachieve based on our actual ability and results that season is unfair.
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sleepy
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,079
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Post by sleepy on Mar 16, 2013 16:15:34 GMT -5
I was really just talking about seeding but I don't really agree that we didn't overachieve in 2006 and 2007. The problem with that is neither Jeff nor Roy were playing at first round draft pick level in 2006. They obviously had the potential but I don't think it's fair to use their future sucess to judge their production at that time against them. We were a 7 seed that year that beat the 2 seed by twenty and lost in the sweet sixteen to a team with 4? draft picks. We definitely overachieved our seed, expectations, and our regular season play in the tournament that year. 2007 we beat a UNC team that was at least as talented and out played our seed. I mean if Hayes or Bolden turn out to be NBA all-star centers would it really be fair to say we had an NBA caliber center this year? Imo, no. Not the same. Did you notice Roy's first two games in that tourney in 2006 especially the one against Ohio State? What about Jeff's performance against Ohio State and Florida? The NBA scouts did. You can bet if either entered their name in the draft that year they would have gone first round based upon potential alone, particularly Jeff. And yes teams are judged down the line by the talent that was playing for the team at the time, regardless of whether those players had reached their college-level peak. As long as they saw floor time they are part of the equation. You don't think Thad Matta can't take some comfort that his #2 seed Ohio State team lost on opening weekend in Dayton to a Gtown team that got major contributions from two eventual NBA first round draft picks? Hayes and Bolden on the other hand never leave the bench so you can't compare them to Roy and Jeff. They could end up being better players and it wouldn't factor in evaluating the '12-'13 team because they never got on the court. I definitely don't think they were the superior team overall, throughout the whole season, that would just be silly. However, they were playing really really well when they played us, the best they played all season and were also a tough match-up because they matched our length. They should have beat UNC in the ACC tournament the week before but were robbed if I remember correctly and only lost to Kansas by 2 or 3 the next game. Their absolute peak was probably a bit higher than ours all things considered. But like I said I barely remember last season for some reason so I could be underrating us. Either way I don't think we would win more than 6 in a series of 10 against them so I don't consider it a major upset.
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bmartin
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 2,459
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Post by bmartin on Mar 16, 2013 16:36:24 GMT -5
Against NC State we were +7 with Sims in the game but he only played 21 minutes because of fouls. Without Henry we became a three dependent team and Clark in particular was misfiring. We also gave up 17 offensive boards. Howell and Leslie had size and skills that made them a tough matchup without Henry in the game.
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This Just In
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Bold Prediction: The Hoyas will win at least 1 BE game in 2023.
Posts: 10,592
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Post by This Just In on Mar 16, 2013 19:13:38 GMT -5
Number 1 Seeds if the rest of the Conference Tourney Brackets hold form
1. Gonzaga 2. Louisvillle 3. Kansas 4. Indiana
2. Seeds if Conference Tourney Brackets hold form:
1. Miami 2. Duke 3. Ohio St. 4. Georgetown
Expect to get the lowest #2 Seed and a tough matchup from the Winner of the #7 vs #10 matchup... Just have to perform up to seed but that 2nd/3rd round matchup will not make be a cupcake(The 500LB Gorilla)...Sweet 16 or Bust
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