NCHoya
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Post by NCHoya on Mar 19, 2012 9:58:57 GMT -5
One thing that has been interesting for a while is the chronic over-seeding this program continues to get in the NCAAs. I do wonder whether that sets up false expectations for the team. This year speaks for itself, but even last year, we were a shell of ourselves without CW, should have been a classic, prove yourself #8 seed. The year before I still wonder whether a team capable of losing to Rutgers was worthy of a #3 seed. To JT3's credit he is able to use his success in OOC schedule to get favorable seeding, but I am just not sure if that strategy is working out in reality. I think underdogs have a big advantage in the NCAAs lately, the detrimental pressure on the stronger seeds has been obvious.
I also think this team did lack Sweet 16 talent this year. Perhaps we have the talent, but it is so young and raw, it is not realistic to call it Sweet 16 ready. When I looked at the two teams that lined up yesterday, I thought NCST had more developed talent. The question was whether our coaching and defensive effort would overcome the talent gap. The answer was no, especially when Henry went out. In years past I think the Hoyas had superior talent in its match-up, but I did not feel that way yesterday. I guess that is why I cannot get as depressed or upset as others about what happened this season.
Even Mike Wise of the anti-Georgetown Wash Post called this JT3's best coaching job of his career. I would say it is second to 2005-2006, but still right up there for sure.
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EasyEd
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Post by EasyEd on Mar 19, 2012 10:30:06 GMT -5
It's amazing how people question if we were a Sweet 16 level team when we just missed the 16 by one or two shots or stops.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Mar 19, 2012 10:42:24 GMT -5
It's amazing how people question if we were a Sweet 16 level team when we just missed the 16 by one or two shots or stops. And one of those shots was a fade away jumper that went over the backboard on its way in.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 19, 2012 10:47:58 GMT -5
It's amazing how people question if we were a Sweet 16 level team when we just missed the 16 by one or two shots or stops. It's amazing how people just come here to criticize what other people say and completely miss the point of the posts.
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calhoya
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Post by calhoya on Mar 19, 2012 10:52:44 GMT -5
I don't think that making the Sweet 16 is an accurate measure of the level of talent. I believe that Jason, Hollis, Henry, Greg and Otto would have been welcome additions to almost any major program in the country, if they wanted.
One factor that is often overlooked after a disappointing loss is that the Georgetown "system" is both a blessing and a curse in terms of the type of games they play. By that I mean that teams like the Hoyas are seldom out of games, but are seldom ever going to really run away from another quality opponent either. For example, with the exception of the South Florida game and the Seton Hall game, I cannot ever recall any blowout wins or losses in conference.
It drives me crazy at times to see the Hoyas totally dominate someone (Belmont) and still have only an 8-10 point lead. On the other hand, in games like yesterday, it never occurred to me that the Hoyas would not make a run at some point, because of their defense.
Unfortunately, when you play this type of "system" there is little margin for error--unless you have the depth at every position to overcome foul trouble or an off night. With Henry on the bench for most of the game, there was no other player on the team that combined what Henry brought to the table.
This was a very good year with a very disappointing ending. No excuses for yesterday--they should have won and did not. There are plenty of flaws that combined to produce that result, but it seems grossly unfair to focus on the negatives and ignore what these kids accomplished this year.
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Mar 19, 2012 12:00:12 GMT -5
I don't think that making the Sweet 16 is an accurate measure of the level of talent. I believe that Jason, Hollis, Henry, Greg and Otto would have been welcome additions to almost any major program in the country, if they wanted. One factor that is often overlooked after a disappointing loss is that the Georgetown "system" is both a blessing and a curse in terms of the type of games they play. By that I mean that teams like the Hoyas are seldom out of games, but are seldom ever going to really run away from another quality opponent either. For example, with the exception of the South Florida game and the Seton Hall game, I cannot ever recall any blowout wins or losses in conference. It drives me crazy at times to see the Hoyas totally dominate someone (Belmont) and still have only an 8-10 point lead. On the other hand, in games like yesterday, it never occurred to me that the Hoyas would not make a run at some point, because of their defense. Unfortunately, when you play this type of "system" there is little margin for error--unless you have the depth at every position to overcome foul trouble or an off night. With Henry on the bench for most of the game, there was no other player on the team that combined what Henry brought to the table. This was a very good year with a very disappointing ending. No excuses for yesterday--they should have won and did not. There are plenty of flaws that combined to produce that result, but it seems grossly unfair to focus on the negatives and ignore what these kids accomplished this year. The reason we didn't blow out Belmont is because they actually shot pretty well from 3, despite being guarded rather well out there.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Mar 19, 2012 12:21:57 GMT -5
Im with Ed. Its ridiculous to evaluate a team's talent on one game and ignore the rest.
As for the blowout stuff, most margin of victory systems - whether Pomeroy or Sagarin, tend to really like us. I think the expectation of how often and against whom we blowout are ridiculous.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 19, 2012 12:38:39 GMT -5
It's just one way to look at the level of talent we had compared to others. I agree with NC. I think coming down to it, we were probably overseeded as a #3, and probably played to the level we should have this season.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Mar 19, 2012 13:54:08 GMT -5
I think that one of the things we need to keep in mind is that random chance and statistical noise create a very large amount of volatility that affect the end result. The NCAA tournament is largely a crapshoot because it is a single-elimination tournament. When you have 64+ teams in a single elimination tournament, there will be upsets including really unlikely ones like Norfolk State or Lehigh. It happens.
On top of the fact that there are always going to be upsets, the difference between winning and losing is so small that luck will play some part. For example, let's say Otto took the three point shot and made it instead of missing the two point jump shot. At that point, Georgetown could have every easily won and they would not have played substantially better (just one shot, in fact). Or take the 2007 run. If Jeff Green did not make the last minute shot against Vanderbilt, I bet memories of the 2007 team would be drastically different.
I am not saying that the NCAA tournament doesn't matter, but it's hard to make generalized statements about Georgetown's program based on single-elimination situations decided by one possession. There are so many different factors involved (shooting, when fouls are called and who they are called against, turnovers, etc.) in determining the result of a single game that when you lose by a single possession, it's hard to then take that result and make grand statements about the program as a whole.
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Post by happyhoya1979 on Mar 19, 2012 19:18:06 GMT -5
When the Georgetown team with Henry Sims at center plays, it is an RPI 10 to 15 team capable of elite 8 status. With Lubick or Hopkins in the pivot it is an RPI 40 to 50 team. NC State as an RPI 40 to 50 team can compete with and beat the Georgetown "Light" team. That is the story of yesterday's game.
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hoyarooter
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Post by hoyarooter on Mar 19, 2012 19:56:11 GMT -5
Just read the last few pages of this thread, and I'm in Rockaway's camp. The one thing I'll add that I didn't see anyone else mention is that I felt we played a really poor first half, even when we were winning. This can be attributed in large part to Henry's absence. Not only did we get killed on the glass, and turn the ball over way to much, but we also settled for way too many long jumpers. We managed to make a few early while NC State was hitting nothing, but even when we led by 10, I swear I was thinking to myself that we were playing really poorly, and the lead wouldn't hold up.
I thought we played much better in the second half, but NC State played well too, and let's face it, they're a good team. The shots by Wood and Brown were amazing (particularly Brown) - all you can do is tip your hat. And despite that, despite Jason having a poor game (funny, over the last month or so Jason and Hollis just couldn't get in sync - was there a single game where they both played well?), and despite Henry's time being restricted, we still had a good chance to tie at the end (although State missing a few free throws didn't hurt).
I'll add one thing about Otto. I wasn't thrilled with his last shot - I think we could have gotten a better one. But Otto time and again this year made big shots for us in the final minute or so. I think it's great that as a freshman, he had the cajones to want to take those shots with the outcome on the line. I'm very comfortable seeing the ball in his hands, and I look forward to hopefully three more years of that.
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hoyainspirit
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Post by hoyainspirit on Mar 19, 2012 21:25:22 GMT -5
One factor that is often overlooked after a disappointing loss is that the Georgetown "system" is both a blessing and a curse in terms of the type of games they play. By that I mean that teams like the Hoyas are seldom out of games, but are seldom ever going to really run away from another quality opponent either. For example, with the exception of the South Florida game and the Seton Hall game, I cannot ever recall any blowout wins or losses in conference. Unfortunately, when you play this type of "system" there is little margin for error--unless, you have the depth at every position to overcome foul trouble or an off night. With Henry on the bench for most of the game, there was no other player on the team that combined what Henry brought to the table. Cal, in general I appreciate your contribution to the board. Yet, I just don't feel all this talk about the system that you, and many others, engage in. Any team, no matter what "system" they run, will suffer if they lose someone as important as Henry was to us. The fact that no other player has yet developed a skillset comparable to Henry's as a Senior cannot be blamed on the "system". A more likely reason is that the backups were a frosh and a soph, who hopefully will continue to get better. As well, every team, unless it has depth at every position to overcome foul trouble or an off night, as you suggest, (a virtual impossibility in itself), has little room for error. That is college basketball. To blame it on the "system" appears to me to be just one way of rationalizing a loss and an excuse to take a shot at our offense. And the "system" has produced many dominating victories during III's tenure. Witness Notre Dame, St.John's, USF, Villanova, and others this year. Finally, few teams will regularly run away from quality opponents, no matter what system they play. That's why they are quality opponents. That's not a fault of the system.
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TC
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Post by TC on Mar 20, 2012 10:12:14 GMT -5
The reason that they didn't blow out Belmont was Sims being on the bench for the larger part of the first half. The "system" is quite capable of beating teams by 20.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Mar 20, 2012 10:23:34 GMT -5
Is Henry Sims anywhere near as valuable outside the Princeton? Henry wasn't a bad post player, but he was much better at the top of the key--and how useful is his passing if we're not running the Princeton? What alternative would there be that isn't basically the same thing called by a different name? The Dribble-Drive (don't have the guards for it, but ignoring that, there wouldn't be the cutters for Henry to find in that system, since its mostly drive and kick). A motion offense? Which is different how? Should we run the flex (I'm going to assume no, because Wisconsin basketball is uglier than everything)? What are some other options? Running the fast break more would be nice, but that is something that could happen regardless of what we run in the half court (ask MCI ;D)
Would anyone care to explain what offense would be better, what its principles are and how it would better utilize the players we had this year / will have next year? And maybe tell us what teams are currently using it?
And of course, I'd like to point out that we've never had an offense outside the top-50 in KenPom.
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calhoya
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Post by calhoya on Mar 20, 2012 18:05:25 GMT -5
Hoyainspirit, I understand your position. I am not trying to bash the system played by the Hoyas, as I think it is very valuable in keeping us in games against some uptempo teams like Marquette. However what I was saying is that when you run clock like the Hoyas do in this system, it reduces the number of possessions and thereby makes it harder to run away from a team. Now if the opponent is having a horrible night scoring against our defense, it is possible to run away from them anyway. However, many times this year the Hoyas dominated for a half and still led by only 8-10 points when a casual observer would have expected the lead to be much greater.
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