kchoya
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Enter your message here...
Posts: 9,934
|
Post by kchoya on Feb 26, 2015 17:31:10 GMT -5
I'll put together an analysis on Otto at the end of the season comparing him to all #3 picks dating back to 1980. It won't be pretty. Who cares? Is there a clamor for such an analysis? Why waste your time? You're only doing to gratify yourself.
|
|
SFHoya99
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 17,732
|
Post by SFHoya99 on Feb 26, 2015 18:49:21 GMT -5
I'm not clamoring for analysis, but I also know Ranch's will be based on minute-dependent stats, which is useless when the opposition's point is that Wittman is holding Porter back by not playing him.
2014 - Embiid (DNP) 2013 - Porter (108 Orating / 105 D Rating - 0.4 VORP in 961 minutes) 2012 - Beal (102/105 - 0.9 VORP in 1404 minutes) 2011 - Enes Kanter (106/108 - never had a VORP over 0) 2010 - Derrick Favors (114 / 105 - 1.8 in 1616 in Year 5) (Year 2: 104/103 0.4 in 1376) 2009 - James Harden (119 / 101 - 5.8 in 2081 in Year 6) (Year 2: 119/108 2.4 in 2189)
So you have to go back to 2009 to get a #3 pick clearly better than Porter. Most of the rest is perception resting largely on PT.
|
|
TBird41
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
"Roy! I Love All 7'2" of you Roy!"
Posts: 8,740
|
Post by TBird41 on Feb 26, 2015 19:31:11 GMT -5
And it's not like there haven't been a lot of busts at the #2 pick--only two MVP / all star caliber players in the past 11 years.
2013 Victor Oladipo Indiana Orlando 2012 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Kentucky Charlotte 2011 Derrick Williams Arizona Minnesota 2010 Evan Turner Ohio State Philadelphia 2009 Hasheem Thabeet Connecticut Memphis 2008 Michael Beasley Kansas St. Miami 2007 Kevin Durant Texas Seattle 2006 LaMarcus Aldridge Texas Chicago 2005 Marvin Williams UNC Fr. Atlanta 2004 Emeka Okafor UConn Jr. Charlotte 2003 Darko Milicic Serbia 1985 Detroit
|
|
DanMcQ
Moderator
Posts: 30,476
|
Post by DanMcQ on Feb 26, 2015 19:47:04 GMT -5
Jeff was the only plus player (+12) for the Grizz in their loss at Sacramento last night.
|
|
guru
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,597
|
Post by guru on Feb 26, 2015 21:43:11 GMT -5
Kind of shocked to read this from a few of you. I end up listening to sports talk radio on my commute more than I'd care to, and can tell you that the feeling from the hosts and callers I've heard - on both stations in town - is that Otto is a bust and that his pick, along with the Vesely one, were pretty much wasted by the team. Not sure who you guys are talking or listening to, but it's certainly not an outlandish remark. I hang out with several avid Wizards fans, and can tell you that not one of them seems to consider him much of an asset to the team. I hope they're wrong, but this is certainly a feeling that is out there about him. Not a shot at you, guru, but that's the answer to your question. The vast majority of these guys are allergic to intelligent analysis and would assume that efficiency rating referred to something on a light bulb (if efficiency weren't too big a word for their airwaves to begin with). I'm not saying there's no one out there saying it. And I'm not saying, by the way, that Otto is definitely going to be a star let alone a long-time valuable starter. And I agree with those that say he needs to be more assertive. But the people I discuss the team with are unanimous in thinking that he is a valuable player now, doesn't play enough for either the team's short-term or long-term benefit, and could yet develop into a very good player. Point taken. Hard to base judgment on what the sports radio dummies are saying, I know, but it's just what I've been hearing from others as well. I hope he is given the chance to break out. He was such a good college player for us.
|
|
Cambridge
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Canes Pugnaces
Posts: 5,301
|
Post by Cambridge on Feb 27, 2015 12:12:23 GMT -5
Huh. Very surprised to hear that. I live in the DMV and haven't heard disappointment this year about Otto. Maybe I run in more basketball-educated circles than most, but the pickup players and Wizards fans I've talked to have almost universally blamed Wittman for not playing Otto more. Seen a similar trend on twitter. If you searched Otto's name last year, it was all jokes and bust talk and third-pick-not-living-up-to-draft negativity. This year, some occasional hate, but mostly calls for him to play more over Butler/Webster (or even Pierce) surprise at how well he's playing in a given game (which I suppose is a left-handed compliment). Most of the haters are the folks that barely follow the game that would slap a "bust" label on even someone producing very decent numbers for a sophomore. Not too many players from that draft outperforming Otto on a per possession basis. Fewer still if you start to quantify Otto's defense. You can always cherry pick a handful of sleepers who outperformed (e.g. Gobert), but I don't think you can point to 5 players in that draft who are clearly outperforming Otto on per possession basis. And almost all of those who have performed better than Otto have had more consistent minutes on less competitive teams who are prioritizing player development much more than the Wizards. Given these facts + the injury + the moronic coach with no offensive system and no commitment to player development, hard to be too down on Otto for those who understand the game. FWIW, I haven't heard it either this year. And it would be patently unfair for anyone to say it. Last night, he got a start and significant minutes. He had both the highest ORtg and highest DRtg on the team. He wasn't merely good, he was the single best player on both sides of the court for his team. Obviously, he didn't jack up 30 shots, because that's not what he does. For the season, even with the absurdly inconsistent playing time, he's fifth on the team in offense and seventh on D in efficiency -- numbers that obviously merit more consistent playing time. He's not the best player on the team, obviously. But he's been, statistically, a solid contributor to a playoff (hopefully?!?) team. Sure, you'd like to see him be more aggressive with the ball, but he's simply not a one on one player -- he's not going to create for himself or others that way, at least not consistently. He'd be a great -- great -- player on say this year's Hawks' team. Probably a sixth man type getting considerable minutes and making tons of winning plays. Same here. I follow the Wizards pretty obsessively, and if anything, Wittman's complete meltdown has given Otto a complete free pass from the fans I talk to regularly (and who have no Georgetown affiliation).
|
|
Cambridge
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Canes Pugnaces
Posts: 5,301
|
Post by Cambridge on Feb 27, 2015 12:20:17 GMT -5
Not a shot at you, guru, but that's the answer to your question. The vast majority of these guys are allergic to intelligent analysis and would assume that efficiency rating referred to something on a light bulb (if efficiency weren't too big a word for their airwaves to begin with). I'm not saying there's no one out there saying it. And I'm not saying, by the way, that Otto is definitely going to be a star let alone a long-time valuable starter. And I agree with those that say he needs to be more assertive. But the people I discuss the team with are unanimous in thinking that he is a valuable player now, doesn't play enough for either the team's short-term or long-term benefit, and could yet develop into a very good player. Point taken. Hard to base judgment on what the sports radio dummies are saying, I know, but it's just what I've been hearing from others as well. I hope he is given the chance to break out. He was such a good college player for us. The Wizards-centric blogs are all pretty Otto-positive or at least have focused all of their ire on Wittman and use Otto's minutes (or lack thereof) as one of their primary cudgels when bashing his incompetence.
|
|
DanMcQ
Moderator
Posts: 30,476
|
Post by DanMcQ on Feb 28, 2015 7:25:53 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by FrazierFanatic on Feb 28, 2015 8:04:10 GMT -5
What has Greg done to deserve such a fate?
|
|
Filo
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,906
|
Post by Filo on Feb 28, 2015 8:23:42 GMT -5
What has Greg done to deserve such a fate? Exactly. As a [former] Knick fan, I would not wish them on an enemy, never mind one of my favorite players.
|
|
SSHoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
"Forget it Jake, it's Chinatown."
Posts: 18,248
|
Post by SSHoya on Feb 28, 2015 9:15:48 GMT -5
Point taken. Hard to base judgment on what the sports radio dummies are saying, I know, but it's just what I've been hearing from others as well. I hope he is given the chance to break out. He was such a good college player for us. The Wizards-centric blogs are all pretty Otto-positive or at least have focused all of their ire on Wittman and use Otto's minutes (or lack thereof) as one of their primary cudgels when bashing his incompetence. In the Wiz's horrendous loss to the 76ers, Otto got starter minutes. Lots of comments to the Post article suggest Wittman has to go. "Otto Porter Jr., starting in place of Pierce, fell two points shy of his career high with 19 on 8-for-19 shooting." 2/5 from 3. www.washingtonpost.com/sports/wizards/wizards-slump-deepens-with-89-81-loss-at-lowly-philadelphia/2015/02/27/6c2339a0-bec9-11e4-b274-e5209a3bc9a9_story.html
|
|
|
NBA Hoyas
Feb 28, 2015 11:32:56 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by FrazierFanatic on Feb 28, 2015 11:32:56 GMT -5
Not bad for a bust.
|
|
kchoya
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Enter your message here...
Posts: 9,934
|
Post by kchoya on Feb 28, 2015 11:54:03 GMT -5
|
|
DanMcQ
Moderator
Posts: 30,476
|
Post by DanMcQ on Mar 3, 2015 12:49:26 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by cosmopolitanhoya on Mar 4, 2015 1:08:12 GMT -5
|
|
SaxaCD
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,401
|
Post by SaxaCD on Mar 4, 2015 2:13:08 GMT -5
It obviously freaked Snell out into missing the shot, so good strategy!
|
|
tashoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 12,318
|
Post by tashoya on Mar 4, 2015 10:09:29 GMT -5
What has Greg done to deserve such a fate? Exactly. As a [former] Knick fan, I would not wish them on an enemy, never mind one of my favorite players. Exactly. I'm a fan of the unwatchable Knicks as well. Please do not, under any circumstances, subject Greg to that dumpster fire of a team. Dolan is the worst.
|
|
guru
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,597
|
Post by guru on Mar 4, 2015 11:12:20 GMT -5
|
|
beenaround
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,473
|
Post by beenaround on Mar 4, 2015 13:08:38 GMT -5
Otto had a real good game until that last moment. Hit some threes and had a couple of nice blocks. But, sadly this three second brain freeze will always be used to demonstrate he is a "bust."
|
|
Cambridge
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Canes Pugnaces
Posts: 5,301
|
Post by Cambridge on Mar 4, 2015 13:19:17 GMT -5
|
|