rockhoya
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Dec 15, 2014 15:51:42 GMT -5
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Post by rockhoya on Dec 15, 2014 15:51:42 GMT -5
Never said he was a definite bust. Said like he was looking like a bust if he doesn't improve. I am fearful. I love Otto, but you can't say he has met expectations under any analysis of the facts and comparisons. He's the 10th man right now and seeing his minutes cut as the season goes on. Not looking good at present. Would cheer a turn around! I think it's weird more people don't see the facts as I do. This is essentially his first year. Maybe he hasn't met your expectations, but the Wizards organization has realized that last year was kind of an aberration and a wash and he is meeting expectations this year, just not exceeding them. Facts only tell so much of the story. Fact is, he lost half a year of development on his first year on the job and his ply since the end of season 1 has given no indication that he is regressing, in fact, his play during summer league was due to improving a lot over the course of the spring, post all star weekend, and he has made another jump since the end of summer league, according to everyone within the organization. He played better than almost every second year player in Vegas, and if you don't think that counts for much, fine, but I just don't see how you can take that as a sign of being a bust or not being capable of improvement....he has been more timid since hurting himself against Denver, but prior to that he was your standard NBA rotation player but just much more efficient. I don't know how often you watch the Wizards but you have to evaluate his performance in context. Garret Temple was killing it before Beal was back, Otto remains ahead of him in the rotation and he barely plays now (in favor of Otto) despite what he brings from an intangibles and defensive standpoint, does that not count either?
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dense
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Post by dense on Dec 15, 2014 17:12:25 GMT -5
Well also Beal is playing 38 mins a game now so it's not as though Otto isn't playing due to his play. Whitman is playing all the starters more minutes now. Now that Nene is back, Gooden isn't playing at all. Otto is doing fine. Looking at stats like PPG when you play so few minutes is wrong.
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Post by michaelgrahmstylie on Dec 15, 2014 18:15:39 GMT -5
Never said he was a definite bust. Said like he was looking like a bust if he doesn't improve. I am fearful. I love Otto, but you can't say he has met expectations under any analysis of the facts and comparisons. He's the 10th man right now and seeing his minutes cut as the season goes on. Not looking good at present. Would cheer a turn around! I think it's weird more people don't see the facts as I do. Wait...Yout think it is weird that more people don't see the facts as you do? That's a good one.
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Post by professorhoya on Dec 16, 2014 0:31:35 GMT -5
I think you are in the minority on this one. Wizards fans are in agreement that he isn't a bust. He's been a solid pick. Under your definition of bust, pretty much everyone who isn't a franchise superstar or guy scoring at least 20 pts a game is a bust. Now he may very well turn out to be a bust because of injury (see Bowie, Greg Oden) or because he just never develops (Kwame Brown, Olowokandi) but I think it's a stretch to anoint him a bust at this point. The 3rd pick, especially in one of the weakest drafts of all time, you are basically looking for a rotation player and eventual starter. A bust is someone who is worthless to your team and the team gives up on and trades right away like Thomas Robinson, Wesley Johnson, Jimmer Fredette. Here is a list of #3 picks: As you can see 4 Superstars/Franchise Players/HOF 12 multiple All Star caliber players 12 Rotation/Solid Starter but nothing more caliber players 6 Busts 2013 Otto Porter Georgetown Washington Rotation Player2012 Bradley Beal Florida Washington All Star2011 Enes Kanter Kentucky Utah Rotation Player2010 Derrick Favors Georgia Tech New Jersey All Star2009 James Harden Arizona State Oklahoma All Star2008 O.J. Mayo USC Minnesota (Bust) 2007 Al Horford Florida Atlanta All Star2006 Adam Morrison Gonzaga Portland (Bust)2005 Deron Williams Illinois Jr. Utah All Star2004 Ben Gordon UConn Jr. Chicago Rotation Player2003 Carmelo Anthony Syracuse Fr. Denver Super Star2002 Mike Dunleavy Duke Jr. Golden State Rotation Player2001 Pau Gasol Spain Memphis All Star2000 Darius Miles HSSr. LA Clippers (Bust)1999 Baron Davis UCLA So. NO Hornets All Star1998 Raef LaFrentz Kansas Denver (Bust)1997 Chauncey Billups Colorado Boston Bust to Rotation Player to All Star1996 Shareef Abdur-Rahim California Vancouver All Star1995 Jerry Stackhouse North Carolina Philadelphia Rotation Player 1994 Grant Hill Duke Detroit All Star1993 Anfernee Hardaway MemphisState Golden State All Star1992 Christian Laettner Duke Minnesota Rotation Player1991 Billy Owens Syracuse Sacramento Rotation Player1990 Chris Jackson Louisiana State Denver Rotation Player1989 Sean Elliott Arizona San Antonio All Star1988 Charles Smith Pittsburgh Philadelphia Rotation Player1987 Dennis Hopson Ohio State New Jersey (Bust)1986 Chris Washburn North Carolina State Golden State (Bust)1985 Benoit Benjamin Creighton LA Clippers Rotation Player1984 Michael Jordan North Carolina Chicago Goat1983 Rodney McCray Louisville Houston Rotation Player1982 Dominique Wilkins Georgia Utah HOF1981 Buck Williams Maryland New Jersey All Star1980 Kevin McHale Minnesota Boston HOFwww.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/3rd-overall/30509/Did a quick review of the players labeled bust on your list. In my mind, Adam Morrison and Chris Washburn were the only true busts. Bust means basically no production and out of the league quickly.OJ Mayo started 164/164 games his first two years and averaged 18ppg. He lost his starting role after that, and his production has declined, but I don't believe you can label him anywhere near a bust. Before his injury, Darius Miles gave 6 years of consistent 11 ppg/5rpg/2apg production while starting nearly half his 412 games played. Major disappointment? Perhaps, although he was drafted out of high school so his selection came with some increased risk. But not a total bust. Raef LaFrentz gave 4 years of consistent 13ppg/8rpg production and started nearly every game he played during that period. Major disappointment? Perhaps. Total bust? No. Dennis Hopson started 36/62 games in year 2 and scored 13ppg. In year 3, he started 64/79 games and scored 16 ppg. Production dropped off after year 3. Big time disappointment? Yes. Total bust? Close, but not quite. Of all the #3 draft selections going back to 1980 (34 players), Otto is ahead of only Adam Morrison and Chris Washburn in terms of impact and production in year 2. Then even under your own definition Otto is not a bust, since he has been productive in the minutes given (especially per 36) and the Wizards picked up his option for the 4th year, so he will not be out of the league quickly. As far as Hopson. He was a total bust. There is no debating that. Ask, NJHoyas. I think what you keep ignoring is that most of these guys go to very bad team, so have every opportunity to get playing time and produce. If they don't produce and are trade away they are a bust. Otto's in an interesting situation because the Wizards are a championship caliber team and certainly one of the top 2-3 teams in the East. It's very hard to get playing time. Look at Glen Rice Jr, as good as he seemed to be playing they sent him down because theres no PT or room. It's easy to rack up stats on pathetic teams like the 76ers. Look at Sims and Hollis on the 76ers, they are racking up stats. If Otto was on that team he would probably have stats comparable or alot better than those two. Look at MCW. Most high draft picks are on horrible teams, that's usually what happens.
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Post by professorhoya on Dec 16, 2014 0:36:37 GMT -5
Wow - where to start? Chauncey Billups -- My take is that Billups had made a significantly bigger impact in his 2nd season than Otto is having now. Slight edge to Otto in eFG% (48.1 vs. 47.2), but Chauncey started most games he played and definitely made a bigger impact before he injured his knee. The per 36 minute comparison shows that Billups would have scored at a 15.1 clip, compared to Otto's 10.3. Chauncey averaged more assists and steals, Otto is grabbing more rebounds and blocks -- not unexpected given the different positions played. The ORtgs for both players were equivalent, while Billups posted a meaningfully superior DRtg (113 vs. 103). Billups shot an astonishing 91.3% from FT line. Otto still has time to improve his year 2 stats obviously, but with 25% of the season logged, he needs to make a pretty good jump up to challenge Billups for year 2 impact. Scottie Pippen -- You really want to go here? I would not have labeled Pippen a bust in year 1 because the entire discussion we have been having is how much of an impact Otto is having by year 2. By year 2, Pippen started 56/73 games and averaged 14.4 ppg. He became an all-star in year 3. His per 36 minutes stats vs. Otto are not even in the same ballpark. Pippen was a stat sheet stuffer by year 2, much moreso that Otto at this point. People are saying that Otto is not getting a chance to prove himself as a starter. But the hard question to ask is why did the Wizards acquire Paul Pierce and why are they playing Butler more minutes than Otto? The only objective conclusion we can make is that the Wizards have decided that Otto is not good enough to start and is currently 3rd on the SF depth chart. I don't believe the #3 pick is drafted to be the third string player at his position in year 2. This has to be graded as a disappointment. The good thing for Otto is that Pierce and Butler are old, so if he can prove himself, the SF position should open up for him in next year or 2 (assuming the Wizards do not draft or trade for a new SF over Otto again). People are also saying that the 2013 draft was weak and are using that as an excuse for Otto's expectations. When you look across the Top 15 selections of the 2013 draft, it does appear weak in that it lacks marquee immediate high impact players. Even so, it is worth comparing Otto against his 2013 peers to see how well he is doing among this weak draft cohort. 12 of the Top 15 players drafted in 2013 have started at least 2 games this season. 8 of 15 are averaging double digit points. Of the 3 players who have not started a single game in 2013 (Porter at #3, Len at #5, McCollum at #10), Porter has the lowest per 36 minute ppg, lowest eFG%, lowest DRtg, and middle ranked ORtg. You can debate this a bit, but of the Top 15 players selected in 2013, there is a decent argument to make that Otto has made the smallest impact and is the biggest disappointment, especially given his #3 selection. And there is no debating that he is among the bottom 5 players within the Top 15 players selected in 2013. Lol do some fact checking they're playing Pierce because he's a future HOFer and adds a dimension to the offense that was not there last year and not many teams have the luxury of. Butler is leading (or was) the NBA in 3pt percentage at a pretty decent attempt rate. That says more about the than it does Otto. Pierce was real cheap and still is a very valuable player, that's why they acquired him, not because they didn't have faith in Otto. They actually let Ariza walk after a career year because they had faith in Otto... Pierce was also brought in because he's won an NBA championship and that kind of experience and knowledge is vital for a team with NBA finals aspirations. The Wizards window with this unit (Gortat-Wall-Beal-Nene) is this year and next year because when Beal's rookie contract is up, he will probably get close to the max, which will make it harder to carry other high priced players, and Nene is getting older so who knows where he'll be at physically in 3 years.
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rockhoya
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Dec 16, 2014 19:01:21 GMT -5
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Post by rockhoya on Dec 16, 2014 19:01:21 GMT -5
The Wizards are about to play the Timberwolves if anyone wants to watch Otto match up with Wiggins. Getting his first start.
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njhoya78
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Post by njhoya78 on Dec 16, 2014 19:08:24 GMT -5
Dennis Hopson started 36/62 games in year 2 and scored 13ppg. In year 3, he started 64/79 games and scored 16 ppg. Production dropped off after year 3. Big time disappointment? Yes. Total bust? Close, but not quite. As far as Hopson. He was a total bust. There is no debating that. Ask, NJHoyas. Bust, with a capital B. Dennis Hopson was so, so bad that I just about swore off professional basketball. In fact, I blame Hopson's indifferent attitude and on-court production to the failure of the New Jersey Nets franchise and its ultimate relocation to Brooklyn. Nah, I'm not bitter.
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dense
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Post by dense on Dec 16, 2014 19:11:15 GMT -5
Otto starting tonight. Pierce out with sore toe.
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mfk24
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Post by mfk24 on Dec 16, 2014 19:11:33 GMT -5
Pierce out with a sore toe so Otto gets the start.
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rockhoya
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Dec 16, 2014 19:29:21 GMT -5
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Post by rockhoya on Dec 16, 2014 19:29:21 GMT -5
Still in the first, went to the bench after picking up two. Hit his only shot, a 3 and had 3-4 boards and a deflection or two. Got fouled on an alleyoop attempt but refs didn't call a shooting foul.
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dense
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Post by dense on Dec 16, 2014 19:36:06 GMT -5
Still in the first, went to the bench after picking up two. Hit his only shot, a 3 and had 3-4 boards and a deflection or two. Got fouled on an alleyoop attempt but refs didn't call a shooting foul. Played really well. The wolves got a ton of offensive boards when he went out.
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dense
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Dec 16, 2014 19:59:21 GMT -5
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Post by dense on Dec 16, 2014 19:59:21 GMT -5
Just hit another 3
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rockhoya
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Dec 16, 2014 19:59:45 GMT -5
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Post by rockhoya on Dec 16, 2014 19:59:45 GMT -5
He just cashed his second shot, a 3. He set it up for himself in transition and calmly stepped into it. Played good D on Wiggins too, he only scored after Otto went to the bench.
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Nevada Hoya
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Post by Nevada Hoya on Dec 16, 2014 20:09:03 GMT -5
Otto +14 so far.
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dense
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Post by dense on Dec 16, 2014 20:31:34 GMT -5
What a block by Otto on thaddeus young
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dense
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Dec 16, 2014 20:34:34 GMT -5
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Post by dense on Dec 16, 2014 20:34:34 GMT -5
Otto in double figures
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mfk24
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Post by mfk24 on Dec 16, 2014 21:17:53 GMT -5
Otto had a great game but he's fighting for minutes against a hall of fame vet in Pierce and Butler who is just unconscious from 3 right now. He jut cannot miss. Butler's let Shabazz Muhammed score at will against him though and Otto is definitely the better defensive player and does a lot of little things that don't show up in the stat book.
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beenaround
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Post by beenaround on Dec 17, 2014 0:10:51 GMT -5
Had tickets to the game.....and had no desire whatsoever to attend. What a shock when Otto was announced as the starter. He didn't play nearly enough for me, but definitely looked recovered from his leg injury. Moved very well, had a big time rejection and threw down a nice jam on the break. 10 and 5 in 22 minutes. Rasual Butler really does not play much D, but offensively he looks like Kevin Durant these days, which hurts Ottos PT. May get worse when webster returns.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 17, 2014 3:27:05 GMT -5
Henry Sims is one of those high-effort guys on the Sixers. He came over last February in the Spencer Hawes trade. He'd been a borderline pro prospect at Georgetown, but he's worked hard on areas like rebounding that kept him off the draft boards after he graduated in 2012. Sims echoed Brown's point about knowing that each game is more than just a win or a loss in a Sixers' season; it's a brick in a much bigger planned structure. If Sims isn't part of that plan, there are 29 other teams who will be seeing him every night he's with the Sixers, too. "I had a great end of the year," said Sims, whose Player Efficiency Rating jumped to 17.4 in his 26 games with the Sixers last year. "But I want to do that for the whole season, as much as I can. It's not really -- it is, I guess you could say, a showcase, a tryout. You know, an interview for 29 other teams. But I'm going out there, that's not really on my mind. What's on my mind is showing that I belong. Showing that I belong to these players, to this organization." That constant effort shows itself every time Sims takes the floor. He made his first basket Friday night, a midrange jumper, and didn't pause for a moment before speeding down the court, catching Deron Williams in a double-team trap that forced a turnover. Sims thinks it's the youth on the team that keeps things positive. "It gives us more of a sense of camaraderie," Sims said. "There's nobody here making crazy, high-volume contracts. So it's not so much about the money with these guys as it is just learning, and playing, and being a team. A lot of these guys are fresh out of college. And you can see it on the bus, on a plane, when we get to a hotel in a new city. You can see the camaraderie.” www.sportsonearth.com/article/104098436/nba-inexperienced-philadelphia-76ers-exceeding-low-expectations?adbid=544537471397027840&adbpl=tw&adbpr=595667888&partnerId=as_mlb_20141215_37312837
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hoyainspirit
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Post by hoyainspirit on Dec 17, 2014 10:20:00 GMT -5
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