skyhoya
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 2,496
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Post by skyhoya on Aug 31, 2011 16:29:57 GMT -5
on comment, the scalphers on F Street will a slow year with handfuls of tix and no buyers.
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Post by rustyshackleford on Aug 31, 2011 21:10:03 GMT -5
NJIT is pretty inexcusable. The fact that we had obligations to play unc greensboro and savannah state should have put even more pressure on the staff to avoid another rpi killer. Let's not get into the holier than thou 'the committee is smart enough to avoid the flawed rpi discussions'. RPI ratings are still considered as at least somewhat of a proxy of schedule contextualized performance and playing three 300 ish + games essentially negates three top 30 games. The marginal value of playing a team 100 spots higher in rpi considering that they'll still be a patsy is huge. It's why the 13/14 loss team with a high rpi always seems to be in tourney conversation while people disregard the 19/20 team win that filled up on cupcakes.
I also don't don't buy that all the new faces mean we have to play the blind sisters of the poor this often. The China trip was supposed to be where the players gained familiarity with each other. If we want the new guys to improve so that we can be a stronger program long term we shouldn't shy away from challenges - if this team is going to struggle vs mid majors i'd rather have a losing season where they improve and are in place for a stronger run the following years than a mediocre year with a deceptively inflated record.
I guess the upside is the 10 dollar floor level tickets to a couple of the ooc home games.
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alleninxis
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 2,216
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Post by alleninxis on Aug 31, 2011 21:33:28 GMT -5
Understand ticket holders being a little underwhelmed..but for this team, I like the schedule.
Going to need a few soft spots for this particular team. And @ Alabama, Kansas on a neutral floor and Memphis at home will be enough of a challenge.
Scheduling is one thing I've always agreed with III on from year to year. & This year is not much different, good job on his part IMO. Maybe swap out NJIT for a respectable low/mid major, but oh well.
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lichoya68
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
OK YOUNGINS ARE HERE AND ARE VERY VERY GOOD cant wait GO HOYAS
Posts: 17,438
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Post by lichoya68 on Sept 1, 2011 7:57:26 GMT -5
agreee allen agree go hoyas jt3 says he always schedules to help his CURRENT group of guys develope its march were talking about march NOT dec or nov GO HOYAS beijing battle tested watch out cuse they been thru the wars go hoyas
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lichoya68
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
OK YOUNGINS ARE HERE AND ARE VERY VERY GOOD cant wait GO HOYAS
Posts: 17,438
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Post by lichoya68 on Sept 1, 2011 7:58:44 GMT -5
and au AND howard for those that complain we dont play local teams but i DO MISS ST LEOS ah those were the days driving out to the cap center in a snow storm to see st leos ah the memories go hoyas
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NCHoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 2,924
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Post by NCHoya on Sept 1, 2011 8:21:49 GMT -5
I like the schedule. My fear is leaving Maui with one win or less in the 3 games we play. Then we still have dates at Alabama (who did not lose at home last year) and Memphis. I am actually in favor of playing patsies if the team does not bring back solid experience. We always complain that the bench never gets PT in the preseason and most of that the last few years was due to the very difficult schedules JT3 has put together. I think this schedule has enough games where we can go 10 deep and work on game experience.
I have absolutely no problem with this schedule. We have enough opportunities out of conference to build a respectable resume while we know any team that goes .500 or better in the BE will have a very decent RPI almost regardless of the OC schedule. Look at Marquette last season.
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rosslynhoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by rosslynhoya on Sept 1, 2011 9:12:55 GMT -5
No one's saying to not schedule patsies, but several folks are saying that we should schedule higher-quality patsies. DFW offers up some recommendations in the other thread for example. This team, freshmen included, should have no more difficulty dispatching an RPI-150 team than a 300+ team.
Heck, I think the IM champs at Yates could probably go head-to-head with NJIT and acquit themselves favorably.
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vcjack
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,875
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Post by vcjack on Sept 1, 2011 9:44:40 GMT -5
Even as a season ticket holder I don't mind the line-up of opponents; if there is any year to load up the cupcakes it is this year.
But...
- Both NJIT and Howard are in the Phonebooth? Even for Saturday games they will still struggle to break 10,000, why couldn't one be in McDonough? The students will need some red meat to get/keep them excited by conference play.
- Maryland and GW have new coaches and low expectations. If we wanted to this would have been a great opportunity to start series and get some excitement flowing in DC.
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Sept 1, 2011 10:40:11 GMT -5
Some interesting issues. Unless we win 2 and maybe even 3 of the "name" non-conference games, we will have to be above .500 to have any real chance at the NCAA's, since the weakness of the rest of the non-cons will not benefit us, and may even hurt us. That being said, JTIII may be willing to take that calculated risk in order to get so much relatively pressure-free experience for this young team, not only for this year but for the future.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Sept 1, 2011 10:49:31 GMT -5
Here is last years data for the "bad" OOC games and what they return.
Savannah St: RPI: 283 Kenpom: 266, Sagarin: 269 Only lose 1 senior(go-to guy). So they lose their top scorer but return everyone else. They closed last season strong winning 10 of their last 11 games.
NJIT: RPI: 315, Kenpom 307, Sagarin: 317 Only lose 1 senior(significant contributor). So they lose their second leading scorer but return the rest of the team. They're improving. Last year they finished 15-15 They finished 2nd in the great west conference last year(yes a team from jersey is in a conference with West in it's name, so the Big East isn't the only screwed up conference).
Howard:RPI: 332, Kenpom: 340, Sagarin: 334 Only lose 1 senior(role player). So they return their top 4 leading scorers. They stunk last year, but it was their coaches first year and he's bringing in better recruits, they should be better.
American: RPI: 127, Kenpom: 187, Sagarin: 153 Lose 3 seniors(1 go-to guy, 1 role player, 1 nearly invisible) Lose their 1st, 4th and 7th leading scorers.
IUPUI: RPI: 137, Kenpom: 138, Sagarin: 133 Lose 2 seniors return rest of the team(1 major contributor and 1 nearly invisible) They lose their 2nd and 5th leading scorers but return everyone else.
UNC Greensboro:RPI: 316, Kenpom 268, Sagarin: 288 Only lose 1 senior(signifcant contributor). So they lose their leading scorer, but return the rest of the team. They stunk early on but ended the season on a high note winning all 7 of their games in conference.
So all the really bad teams return basically their whole teams and will likely improve.
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Post by rustyshackleford on Sept 1, 2011 11:30:22 GMT -5
Here is last years data for the "bad" OOC games and what they return. Savannah St: RPI: 283 Kenpom: 266, Sagarin: 269 Only lose 1 senior(go-to guy). So they lose their top scorer but return everyone else. They closed last season strong winning 10 of their last 11 games. NJIT: RPI: 315, Kenpom 307, Sagarin: 317 Only lose 1 senior(significant contributor). So they lose their second leading scorer but return the rest of the team. They're improving. Last year they finished 15-15 They finished 2nd in the great west conference last year(yes a team from jersey is in a conference with West in it's name, so the Big East isn't the only screwed up conference). Howard:RPI: 332, Kenpom: 340, Sagarin: 334 Only lose 1 senior(role player). So they return their top 4 leading scorers. They stunk last year, but it was their coaches first year and he's bringing in better recruits, they should be better. American: RPI: 127, Kenpom: 187, Sagarin: 153 Lose 3 seniors(1 go-to guy, 1 role player, 1 nearly invisible) Lose their 1st, 4th and 7th leading scorers. IUPUI: RPI: 137, Kenpom: 138, Sagarin: 133 Lose 2 seniors return rest of the team(1 major contributor and 1 nearly invisible) They lose their 2nd and 5th leading scorers but return everyone else. UNC Greensboro:RPI: 316, Kenpom 268, Sagarin: 288 Only lose 1 senior(signifcant contributor). So they lose their leading scorer, but return the rest of the team. They stunk early on but ended the season on a high note winning all 7 of their games in conference. So all the really bad teams return basically their whole teams and will likely improve. I don't doubt that these teams may improve but if the staff thinks they're getting ahead of the ball and these teams won't be rpi killers I suspect they're mistaken. Just going team by team Savannah State did roll of 10 of their last 11. However 3 of those wins were against non D-1 opponents and of the remainder only one of those teams had a kenpom rating better than 275. The majority of independents (who they typically see during the 'conf play') have 300+ rpi's. 4 of NJIT's 15 wins came against non D-1 opponents. Every other win except one came against teams w/kenpom ratings of 300+.They have the distinction of playing in a conference which is ranked only ahead of the SWAC in kenpom's ratings. Even if NJIT did roll off an additional 5 wins in place of their losses they'd still probably have an anchor effect. Howard was in the MEAC and will again lose to at least a half dozen teams with >300 rpi's. We shouldn't be playing anyone from that conference unless its a top 2 team especially if we already have other cupcakes on our ooc. I can't complain about UNC Greensboro as we were forced into that game and they're actually not an abysmal cupcake. If we're going to schedule cupcakes I'd rather see a middle to slightly below middle of the pack team from the IVY, MAC, Patriot or NEC conference - or a bottom of the pack team from C-USA, the A-10 or the CAA. We should still win handily and it won't hurt our computer rankings. Scheduling multiple teams from the worst rated conferences hurts us even because even the best versions of those teams have a very low ceiling w/respect to computer numbers.
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Post by centercourt400s on Sept 1, 2011 11:53:50 GMT -5
Ultimately the measure of success is how well you do at tournament time. High RPI has not helped us at all in March over the last few years so why not take a somewhat different approach? High RPIs and seedings mean less at tournament time than do team chemistry and the overall trend of quality of play. In his best years Pops was a genius for having the team tournament ready by March despite a cupcake filled schedule. I'm not saying I want all cupcakes but this year's approach seems a good middle ground between extremes and will hopefully pay off come March.
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prhoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
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Post by prhoya on Sept 1, 2011 17:20:32 GMT -5
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Post by HometownHoya on Sept 1, 2011 17:27:39 GMT -5
We have easy games and we have challenging games. We will lose an easy game when this team's guard is down or are emotionally exhausted from a big game and we will win big games where the high energy and this team's youth will carry them to victory. That's why my prediction included some interesting wins and losses. I like the schedule and Coach will use it to teach these young players how to stay up and energized for even small games against NJIT, hopefully the players will learn from that and never come out flat in the first round against the Ohios of the world. There is a smattering of big games in both neutral and hostile arenas, the best learning experiences for a young team. Would you rather have all of our big games be at home with a friendly crowd supporting the whole way or against a ravenous fan base that is rooting against everything they do.
JTIII always schedules his OOC to make his team grow and prepare them for not just BE but more importantly, the NCAA tournament. He has done it once again with a young, inexperienced team and will teach them how to win and stay focused even when it is easy or difficult.
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hoyarooter
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Post by hoyarooter on Sept 1, 2011 20:37:33 GMT -5
I think we went a little overboard with the creampuffs this year (although it is good to know that they should all be better than last year). I have no problem with Savannah State (Broadnax), and of course no issue with UNC Greensboro, since, as mentioned, that game was assigned to us. I can almost live with Howard because it's local, but I would rather see us play GW (yeah, I know, sacrilege, but GW was an important opponent in my day, and I would take no issue with our playing them), Navy or George Mason. As for NJIT - We had to be able to do better than that without scheduling North Carolina or Kentucky. Couldn't we find a Jesuit school to play?
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