tonyparker
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Post by tonyparker on Apr 19, 2010 23:29:49 GMT -5
So, with Singler now officially coming back, it is pretty clear that Duke will be the clear cut favorites to win it all in 2011.
That said, I was just thinking about potential matchups, and I'm not sure that they will be that much better than us (even without Greg).
Hypothetical matchups:
PG: Chris Wright v. Kyrie Irving (Advantage Georgetown)
Irving is a really nice player. A McDonald's All-American scoring point who is transitioning into a pure pass first point. Chris Wright was all of those things three years ago. I'll take Chris.
SG: Austin Freeman v. Nolan Smith (Even)
I initially had advantage Georgetown here, but we'll have to see which Austin shows up next year (pre or post-diagnosis). Nolan Smith grew up a lot last year. Still think Austin is the superior player when healthy.
SF: Jason Clark v. Kyle Singler (Advantage Duke)
Singler is an assasin.
PF: Hollis Thompson v. Mason Plumlee (Even)
They each have their strengths, and I think each will be better players next year than they were this year as they slide into starting roles. Plumlee would kill on the boards, but couldn't guard Thompson on the perimeter in his dreams.
C: Julian Vaughn v. Miles Plumlee (Advantage Georgetown)
Julian made huge strides last year and I haven't seen anything from Miles Plumlee to think he is a high-level center.
Bench (Even):
(Seth Curry, Andre Dawkins, Ryan Kelly, Josh Hairston, Tyler Thornton, Carrick Felix) v. (Markel Starks, Nate Lubick, Jerrelle Benimon, Henry Sims, Vee Sanford, Aaron Bowen, Moses Abraham)
Duke has two studs off the bench in Seth Curry and Josh Hairston, but I don't think they are as well-rounded of players as Markel Starks and Nate Lubick. Dawkins and Kelly will likely be better next year, but didn't show all that much this year. I'm not convinced that those two will be better than Sanford and Benimon, who got big minutes as freshman (far more than Dawkins and Kelly). Don't see Thornton or Abraham getting many minutes on their respective teams. Felix, Sims, and Bowen are wild cards on both teams.
Conclusion:
The team that is now the clear cut number 1 team in the nation is still not a clear winner over our 2010-2011 Hoyas.
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Apr 20, 2010 0:01:19 GMT -5
I would change Hollis for Nate. Given Nate's athleticism and intensity, advantage goes to GU or it's even, no worse.
I think the X factor for Duke will be Curry, Irving and Dawkins and how they gel, but Singler and Smith will keep them honest.
Although the media will have them #1, Duke will miss not having Zoubek and Thomas cleaning up the glass and the floor (with flops). I expect the Plumlees to play more and Coach K go with a 3-guard set, Singler and pick your Plumlee. Will Hairston be converted into a flopper? We'll see.
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Post by oldirtyku on Apr 20, 2010 8:16:20 GMT -5
If Hollis starts and play significant minutes at PF we will not make the tournament next year.
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Post by harwoodhoya on Apr 20, 2010 8:21:19 GMT -5
I agree that Hollis shouldn't start but Nolan Smith should be matched up with Clark and Freeman with Singler. We all saw Freeman abused Singler. Man I wished we had got T. Jones. He would have fit in perfectly with this team.
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daymondmyles
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Post by daymondmyles on Apr 20, 2010 8:58:17 GMT -5
First of all, I think Michigan State has to be the favorite. They only lose Raymar Morgan and this time, Kalin Lucas will be playing and Roe and Allen will presumably be healthy. Duke loses 3 starters and 2 of those were integral to their success.
As for your assessment, I wish that were true but I don't see it. Kyrie Irving is ridiculously good. Not sure that Chris will be that much better than him and that's not a slight on Chris at all. Hollis and Mason may be even but it's what they bring to the table. Mason will rebound better than Hollis and probably play better D. Not sure I share your sentiment re: Vaughn v. Miles either. That's a push and Hairston may start over him anyway. Also, Seth Curry may very well start. He is damn good and will be a 3rd year player with a year at Duke under his belt.
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RBHoya
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Post by RBHoya on Apr 20, 2010 9:12:18 GMT -5
^^^agree with above. Irving is going to be pretty filthy from the start. He's not John Wall but he's not that far. I'd probably slice it: PG: Wright v. Irving--Push SG--Clark v. Smith--Advantage Duke SF: Freeman v. Singler--Slight advantage Duke PF: (whomever wins the job at GTown) HS/JB/NL v. Mason P--Push or slight advantage Duke, depending on how everybody develops C: Vaughn v. Marshall P-- Push or slight advantage Duke (Marshall is a former AA who is much longer and more athletic than JV) Bench: Push( )
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jacko
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Post by jacko on Apr 20, 2010 9:12:21 GMT -5
As always, no matter how good they are, MSU will schedule hard and take a while to get right. They will lose 5 games and drop out of the top 5 and people will forget about them, and then they'll be nasty at the end of the season.
As for this player vs. player analysis, I like the concept and I'm a homer myself, but I'd like to see what objective fans and Duke fans would say about these "even" matchups. In theory you could say they're "even" or "advantage Georgetown," but their guard play will be quite good (as will ours), and the size they bring down low will be very much in their favor. In the 3-5 positions you listed, the skill levels may be comparable but they have a clear size advantage at 2 of the 3. I'm not convinced we could keep them off the glass with our frontcourt. That said, let's hope to see team-wide the kind of improvement we saw from Julian last summer.
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Filo
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Post by Filo on Apr 20, 2010 9:33:10 GMT -5
As always, no matter how good they are, MSU will schedule hard and take a while to get right. They will lose 5 games and drop out of the top 5 and people will forget about them, and then they'll be nasty at the end of the season. As for this player vs. player analysis, I like the concept and I'm a homer myself, but I'd like to see what objective fans and Duke fans would say about these "even" matchups. In theory you could say they're "even" or "advantage Georgetown," but their guard play will be quite good (as will ours), and the size they bring down low will be very much in their favor. In the 3-5 positions you listed, the skill levels may be comparable but they have a clear size advantage at 2 of the 3. I'm not convinced we could keep them off the glass with our frontcourt. That said, let's hope to see team-wide the kind of improvement we saw from Julian last summer. I agree. Until Sims and Benimon show me the improvement I hope for (and expect) and Lubick shows that he can contribute right away as a frosh, I don't see the frontcourt as a push at all. Maybe by February and March it will be advanatage Hoyas, but not now and not at the beginning of the season (and in no way am I saying that the Plumlees and Hairston are going to be studs).
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RDF
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Post by RDF on Apr 20, 2010 10:44:18 GMT -5
Let's just see the team improve--and take care of their own business. To us Hoya fans-the logic used here makes some sense--although I'd give edge to Nolan Smith based simply on the fact he took his game to a higher level in NCAA Tournament and helped lead his team to a National Championship--that carries weight with me but if you base it on how the teams matched up in January--yes--I'd give it to Hoyas at a lot of positions.
Chris Wright has improved a great deal--but Kyrie Irving is the best PG prospect in the country--and will be best guard Coach K has ever had. If he leaves for Draft next year--he's a lottery pick, Chris is not with a great year. That doesn't mean that Wright can't lead his team to a win over Duke, but if you are going to base it on matchups--Irving is type who would give Chris fits--he is big, athletic, and quick and until Georgetown commits to defensive end of court--we can't assume that we win matchups with athletic/talented guys who can get to where they want to go on the court.
It's basketball--you can win one game anytime--which is beauty or pain as we've experienced the past 2 times in NCAA's--but I really believe next year's Hoya team will surprise and be very good come late in the season. Hope my and others faith is rewarded.
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harlemhoya
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Post by harlemhoya on Apr 20, 2010 10:52:11 GMT -5
coaching?
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Buckets
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Post by Buckets on Apr 20, 2010 18:29:50 GMT -5
So with Wright/Freeman/Clark/Thompson/Vaughn v Irving/Smith/Singler/Plumlee/Plumlee, what do Georgetown's rebounding percentages look like? Offensively, the game could look like our game at Cuse this year (5 OR, Cuse 27 DR). Defensively, they could work us inside similar to Pitt last year (16 DR, Pitt 20 OR). I think that OR% < 15 and DR% < 45 would be reasonable.
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russodj
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Post by russodj on Apr 20, 2010 21:44:01 GMT -5
Chris Wright has improved a great deal--but Kyrie Irving is the best PG prospect in the country--and will be best guard Coach K has ever had. I have yet to see Irving play, is he on the same level as Jay Williams?
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Apr 20, 2010 21:45:31 GMT -5
Duke's players play with a level of defensive intensity, game in, game out, that our players have not matched in their careers.
If we played, we may beat them, but until this team brings it on defense every play like Duke, they are going to have a better season.
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hoyasexy
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Post by hoyasexy on Apr 21, 2010 6:43:08 GMT -5
Tony's player-by-player assessment is a great example of why you can't compare teams like that. I don't have any beef with how he compares the respective players, but I think if you were to look at the teams as a whole, you would see how the team he has on the floor just can't compete with Duke's team on the boards, even with the losses of Zoubek and Thomas. They would eat us alive, and as a result, the game probably wouldn't be close.
That is why we need Nate and/or Moses to play significant minutes.
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RDF
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Post by RDF on Apr 21, 2010 12:15:59 GMT -5
Chris Wright has improved a great deal--but Kyrie Irving is the best PG prospect in the country--and will be best guard Coach K has ever had. I have yet to see Irving play, is he on the same level as Jay Williams? I think he's better---he's got to prove it--but think he's got more natural instinct for making others better while still being able to score--and he's more faster then Williams.
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kchoya
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Post by kchoya on Apr 21, 2010 12:54:29 GMT -5
I have yet to see Irving play, is he on the same level as Jay Williams? I think he's better---he's got to prove it--but think he's got more natural instinct for making others better while still being able to score--and he's more faster then Williams. more faster?
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RDF
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Post by RDF on Apr 21, 2010 14:12:45 GMT -5
I think he's better---he's got to prove it--but think he's got more natural instinct for making others better while still being able to score--and he's more faster then Williams. more faster? Faster--sorry for the grammatical error. Didn't realize we're being graded on posts now. If you get the damn point-you get it. Geez.
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tonyparker
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Post by tonyparker on Apr 21, 2010 16:51:54 GMT -5
I agree that the line-up that I threw out there would get destroyed on the boards. I think that against bigger teams like Duke we'll often see a Wright, Freeman, Thompson, Lubick, Vaughn team on the floor (with Starks/Clark rotating in for Wright/Free). I actually think that a frontcourt of Thompson, Lubick and Vaughn would rebound quite well as a unit (with Bowen, Benimon, and Sims in support). While not an effective rebounder at the four spot, I think Thompson would be a solid rebounder at the three.
I don't, however, think that Kyrie Irving will be better this year than Chris Wright. Kyrie Irving might be drafted ahead of Chris, but that will be based more on potential than production as college players. For those saying Kyrie is bigger, he has an inch on Chris but is nowhere near as strong. For those saying that Kyrie is better/as good as Jay Williams -- at what point in Jay Williams career? This comparison people keep making is ridiculous. Kyrie is not as strong, fast or explosive as Jay Williams. Jay Williams generally played the 2 next to Duhon, Kyrie will be the 1. He'll be good, but to say he'll walk into Duke and be THAT good is a little much in my book. Jay Williams would cross your guards up and dunk on your centers. Kyrie is a totally different type of player (and one that I really like).
In my book, Chris Wright was as good as any point guard in America after the Cincy game. I'm assuming (hoping) he's made that next step. Think him and Kalin Lucas will be the best point guards in the country next year.
On edit: I'd also like to add that I don't really think this is a realistic way to compare teams, nor do I really think the Hoyas will necessarily be anywhere near as good as Duke. I was just sick of reading the "sky is falling" posts and thought it might be nice to read a post which illustrated that we (still) have quite a bit of returning talent ourselves.
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Apr 21, 2010 23:17:12 GMT -5
BTW, where would the game be?
At Verizon, advantage GU... At Cameron, advantage Duke... At neutral site, even.
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tashoya
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Post by tashoya on Apr 22, 2010 11:41:18 GMT -5
BTW, where would the game be? At Verizon, advantage GU... At Cameron, advantage Duke... At neutral site, even. At Verizon, ad GU. Everywhere else in the entire country, ad Duke.
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