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Post by ColumbiaHeightsHoya on Feb 24, 2005 14:12:26 GMT -5
Everyone seems to be making predictions, let's see what the consensus is.
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Cambridge
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Post by Cambridge on Feb 24, 2005 14:15:53 GMT -5
I'm just being pessimistic with my guess of 6 because I feel that this is the "Year of the Mid-Major" and they are desperate to make a statement THIS year. Doesn't mean they deserve it, but with the change in the RPI formula and the collapse of the Big X, ACC and subpar Pac-10, they can get away with it. It's a perfect storm...
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HoyaSox04
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Post by HoyaSox04 on Feb 24, 2005 14:25:41 GMT -5
I think 7 from the BE are getting in even with the rebirth's of the mid-majors... I dont think this is going to negatively affect the BE but rather the other conferences - ie: Pac10, Big 10. In the Pac-10, there are 2 definites: AZ and UW. ASU/Stanford/WSU? eeeeh, maybe. Big 10? Illinois/MSU/Wisconsin = locks. Indiana/Minnesota? eeeeh again.
I think the increase in mid-majors is going to take at-large bids away from other lesser conferences and not negatively affect the BE. Goodbye WAC at-large bids, hello Sun Belt!
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Post by A2Mich on Feb 24, 2005 14:27:44 GMT -5
It's the year of the weak (non-BigEast) majors, like the Big Ten and Pac 10. Opening the door for 7 BE teams... Anyone know if one conference has ever gotten 8 teams in before?
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Post by A2Mich on Feb 24, 2005 14:28:34 GMT -5
I think 7 from the BE are getting in even with the rebirth's of the mid-majors... I dont think this is going to negatively affect the BE but rather the other conferences - ie: Pac10, Big 10. In the Pac-10, there are 2 definites: AZ and UW. ASU/Stanford/WSU? eeeeh, maybe. Big 10? Illinois/MSU/Wisconsin = locks. Indiana/Minnesota? eeeeh again. I think the increase in mid-majors is going to take at-large bids away from other lesser conferences and not negatively affect the BE. Goodbye WAC at-large bids, hello Sun Belt! HoyaSox430, you beat me to it!
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HoyaSox04
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Post by HoyaSox04 on Feb 24, 2005 14:29:43 GMT -5
HoyaSox430, you beat me to it! Haha, sorry A2. Great minds do think alike though.
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hoyadrummer
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Post by hoyadrummer on Feb 24, 2005 15:14:51 GMT -5
If you look at who plays who in the Big East, ACC, B10, Pac 10, SEC, I think the other conferences are going to lose bids to the Big East - their bubble teams play each other, ours don't.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Feb 24, 2005 15:43:22 GMT -5
The committee may love mid-majors(or at least pretends to) but they will have tons of explaining to do in the media if teams like Lousiana-Lafayette, Buffalo, Norhern Iowa, Northeastern, or Boston U make it as at-larges. Those five teams combined have as many top 50 wins as the Hoyas, all of them are at home and two of the wins are the same team (the inexplicably #12 Southern Illinois Salukis who have that ranking despite their best win being #45 Northern Iowa at home).
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PopeJohn2
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Post by PopeJohn2 on Feb 24, 2005 22:32:06 GMT -5
7 IF we beat providence AND either villanova/uconn. 7 IF we win the BET. 6 if we dont do either. we being the 7th team of course.
sju really really hurt really really bad. really really bad.
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Post by Fan Of The Game on Feb 25, 2005 0:12:56 GMT -5
We'll definitely get 8 and possibly 9 at some point after we expand.
This year I'm thinking six. We'll win at least two more games and get in. West Virginia and Pitt will fail to make the cut.
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MEGAFAN
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Post by MEGAFAN on Feb 25, 2005 0:36:03 GMT -5
The Big East will get 7 in this year, barring some unforeseen skid by a couple of teams. In the future, there will be years where an argument could be made for 9 and 10/+.
LET'S GO HOYAS!!! BEAT' NOVA!
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Bay99
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Post by Bay99 on Feb 25, 2005 1:30:06 GMT -5
Not that anyone needs a reminder of how important Sunday's game is for our NCAA chances, but even with an optimistic prognostication of seven BE teams dancing, we've got our work cut out for us. Realistically, the difference between six and seven BE teams in the field of 64 (er, 65) could be the difference between the Hoyas traveling to a NCAA Tournament first round site or an NIT road game. Here's my current take (RPI in parentheses)... IN: Boston College (6) UConn (21) Syracuse (20) Villanova (14) STILL MUST PLAY THEIR WAY IN: Pittsburgh (52) Georgetown (58) Notre Dame (42) West Virginia (51) 6 versus 7 teams is (obviously) an enormous difference, as I don't think the committee will be able to take WVA over Georgetown unless the Mountaineers make a deep BET run. Thoughts on the "final four": - Pitt has wins over Syracuse (2x) and UConn. But that RPI is soft for a Top 25 team and their non-conference schedule stunk. Still, unless they have meltdown, I can't see the selection committee leaving them out.
- I thought Notre Dame was an NIT team until they handled us easily and then got a huge win against BC. The latter will stick out for the committee, perhaps even more than it should. The ND-Pitt game on March 5 could be big. If the season ended today, though, the Irish would be dancing.
- The biggest thing we have going right now? We beat all three of the BE teams we're competing with for tourney bids. The first Villanova win gets bigger every week. Beating Pitt on the road is a quality win. Until the St. John's letdown, the Hoyas really didn't have a bad loss. But their RPI is suddenly the weakest of the Big East's top eight teams. I think they need to finish 2-1 or else they need at least one BET win, two to feel confident about an at-large bid.
- In spite of two wins against Pitt, West Virginia has the toughest road to a bid. I think they need a deep BET run to get an at-large bid, at least to the semis, and I don't see that happening. They are playing very well right now, though. Their remaining opponents are Rutgers and Seton Hall, meaning they could easily finish on a five-game winning streak (and 7 of their last 8). But unless that streak continues at the Garden, I think they'll be the hottest team in the NIT field.
Which would leave Pitt, ND and GU. I actually think Pitt has the weakest case for an at-large bid. But again, my gut tells me that they're in. The fun (and agonizing) part is that the Hoyas essentially get to dictate to the committee whether the BE sends six or seven teams. We have two chances before the BET even begins to take the decision out of the selection committee's hands. A win against Nova or at UConn seals our fate. Without one (or both), it could be a tense trip to New York.
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HoyaSox04
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Post by HoyaSox04 on Feb 25, 2005 9:25:16 GMT -5
Just a general question: why is everyone still labeling our win at Pitt this year as our signature victory? If you look everywhere, that's the victory people have listed.
I think that with: a) the way Pitt has been playing schizophrenically (loss at home to Bucknell for example), and b) the way 'Nova has dominated everyone else at home, the win at 'Nova now becomes our signature win.
This is the way 'Nova has played at home this year in BIG games (ALL WINS):
v. WVU: 84-46 (when WVU was ranked #24) v. Kansas: 83-62 (when Kansas was undefeated) v. ND: 65-60 v. Pitt: 80-72 v. BC: 76-70
v. GTown: 66-64 LOSS
With 'Nova's RPI's being so high and their home record so good, that has to be our signature win in front of the committee now, doesn't it?
One would think so.
The Pitt win ain't too shabby either, though...
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Cambridge
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Post by Cambridge on Feb 25, 2005 9:56:17 GMT -5
Funny enough, Pitt may be made an example of by the committee if they don't take care of business down the stretch. It would be painless and yet strangely radical for the committee to neg a ranked team with a worse conference record, weaker non-conf schedule and a worse RPI than ours. Watch out Pitt...you better take care of business because you are the poster child of a big conference team riding on reputation right now.
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Post by ColumbiaHeightsHoya on Feb 25, 2005 10:48:07 GMT -5
I think in years past they definitely lean on how you play at the end. If we have a couple more bad outings, that would put us in the OUT category as Heidi Klum might say (project runway reference for those who got sucked in). That would also put Pitt in trouble while it would give WV a bounce. We shall see.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Feb 25, 2005 11:09:07 GMT -5
Funny enough, Pitt may be made an example of by the committee if they don't take care of business down the stretch. It would be painless and yet strangely radical for the committee to neg a ranked team with a worse conference record, weaker non-conf schedule and a worse RPI than ours. Watch out Pitt...you better take care of business because you are the poster child of a big conference team riding on reputation right now. I agree but I hate this kind of thing. Pitt is "riding on reputation" because they've earned it by beating top teams and being 8-5 in the Big East. Pacific is regarded as a lock for an at-large by beating ONE tournament team (Nevada). Why does Pacific's 249 SOS get a pass because they play in a lousy league and Pitt's 127 SOS get a mark from the committee?
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Cambridge
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Post by Cambridge on Feb 25, 2005 11:13:03 GMT -5
I'm not disagreeing with you Giga, just trying to get in the mindset of the committee.
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KHoyaNYC
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Post by KHoyaNYC on Feb 25, 2005 11:15:18 GMT -5
I think in years past they definitely lean on how you play at the end. If we have a couple more bad outings, that would put us in the OUT category as Heidi Klum might say (project runway reference for those who got sucked in). That would also put Pitt in trouble while it would give WV a bounce. We shall see. Totally agree. If we slide further by losing Nova and Uconn, I don't think a win against Providence (no gimme either) will be enough. We MUST have one of the next two and then I will feel pretty good. Get 2 of the next 3 and I feel "lock." Lose the next 2, and we'll need to run pretty deep in the BET to get in, unless other teams near us all collapse. Lose our next 3, and it will take a BET final.
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Post by Fan Of The Game on Feb 25, 2005 12:02:26 GMT -5
Funny enough, Pitt may be made an example of by the committee if they don't take care of business down the stretch. It would be painless and yet strangely radical for the committee to neg a ranked team with a worse conference record, weaker non-conf schedule and a worse RPI than ours. Watch out Pitt...you better take care of business because you are the poster child of a big conference team riding on reputation right now. I think Pitt is definitely in danger. As for them being a ranked team, if they don't win a couple more games they won't still be ranked. If, at the end of the season, they have manage to win enough to stay in the top 25, then I believe they'll have won enough to justify a berth.
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Post by HoyaLawya on Feb 25, 2005 13:38:36 GMT -5
As long as the BE gets more dancing slippers than the ACC .... ;D ;D ;D ;D ........ it'll be good "payback" on the shameless raid. www.sportsline.com/collegebasketball/story/8225166Hark .... do I hear a flushing noise where dreams of great revenue $tream$ once meandered? The 40% weighting of extra credit in the RPI for road games was a bit much IMHO, and the reason for the rankings skewing so heavily toward a big presence of mid-majors in the NCAAs. It'll be really interesting to see how the Committee deals with the portfolio of "numbers" presented on behalf of at large candidates come Selection Sunday. The gulf between this year's RPI formulation and the Sagarin & Pom numbers is highlighted by Forde sports.espn.go.com/ncb/columns/story?columnist=forde_pat&id=1996188
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