Bando
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Post by Bando on Nov 9, 2010 19:53:41 GMT -5
Mike Pence resigns as chair of the House Republican conference. Plane tickets to Iowa have not been purchased yet, I do not believe, but it's only a matter of time. Haley Barbour is also likely to drawl his way into the ring. And if you don't want to talk about any of this yet, feel free to rekindle the more important debate that has occupied this thread: Ben's Chili Bowl: Awful or Awesome? Discuss. ;D I think Pence depends on whether he can get his name recognition up. Haley Barbour will be the closest thing we ever get to a Boss Hogg campaign. Mitt Romney will be the Joe Lieberman of the cycle, leading for much of the run-up due to name recognition and then flaming out spectacularly once the actual campaign starts. My theory on the GOP primaries is as follows. There will be two groups of candidates: Group A, the candidates that are like standard GOP presidential candidates, and Group B, the candidates that appeal to southern evangelicals and tea partiers. Romney, Pawlenty, and whoever else is in Group A, Huckabee and Palin in Group B. Things are going to hinge on who consolidates their group first; if a Group A candidate consolidates Group A before Super Tuesday, they've got the nomination. However, if a Group B candidate can consolidate while multiple Group A candidates stick around for a while, it's anybody's game. Sound about right?
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TC
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Post by TC on Nov 10, 2010 10:18:02 GMT -5
My theory on the GOP primaries is as follows. There will be two groups of candidates: Group A, the candidates that are like standard GOP presidential candidates, and Group B, the candidates that appeal to southern evangelicals and tea partiers. Romney, Pawlenty, and whoever else is in Group A, Huckabee and Palin in Group B. Things are going to hinge on who consolidates their group first; if a Group A candidate consolidates Group A before Super Tuesday, they've got the nomination. However, if a Group B candidate can consolidate while multiple Group A candidates stick around for a while, it's anybody's game. Sound about right? Where does Newt Gingrich fit? Does he have any cred in either camp? A lot can change in two years, but if the election were held today, you could just about write Group A off.
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SirSaxa
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Post by SirSaxa on Nov 21, 2010 23:43:53 GMT -5
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Nov 22, 2010 9:33:29 GMT -5
I guess I have to agree with the liberals here on this one. After all, it would be nigh impossible for a mere mortal Republican candidate to defeat Shiva the Destroyer. www.coverjunkie.com/new-covers/2785Memo to shills at Newsweek: Obama as deity is, like, sooooo 2008. Memo #2 to shills at Newsweek: It's supposed to be a hard job. Memo #3 to shills at Newsweek: Pssst. He's Muslim, not Hindu. (Memo to Hoyatalk: If you can't take a joke, I have no use for you. ;D)
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Dec 21, 2010 12:17:28 GMT -5
Barbour has backed away from his comments made yesterday about fringe political groups. I thought he was burnishing his foreign policy credentials by talking about the Union. Perhaps more troubling is that some respected analysts could make a serious argument that his comments were deliberate. The new 2012 map is here: 2010.census.gov/news/pdf/apport2010_map1.pdfSignificant gains in TX and continued movement away from the NE
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Dec 21, 2010 12:43:56 GMT -5
Assuming my math is right, I have McCain +6 on the 2010 map in comparison to 2010. Obviously not enough to change the 2008 election, but aside from Washington, all of the states that gained electors went for Bush in 2004 and most of the states that lost electors went for Kerry. This was not a good census for Obama's re-election chances.
Edit: Another way to look at it: States have voted Republican in the last three presidential elections gained 6 seats, states that voted Democrat in the last three presidential elections lost three seats and swing states broke even.
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Dec 21, 2010 12:56:30 GMT -5
Agreed - and I think we're dealing with a smaller map in 2012 in any event. As it stands, I think Obama's path back to 1600 runs through VA, OH, CO, with NM/NV being purple states where he'll spend some time.
I tend to think that, if FL is in play for Obama, it won't be close anyway. (And the 2012 is in Tampa - which Obama won - but has not historically been blue.)*
The biggest variables remain the economy and who is nominated on the other side. Obama remains the most popular politician in the United States, and I think folks underestimate his campaign abilities at their peril. Like him or not, he may be the strongest stump campaigner in a generation.
* The Dems are deciding among Charlotte, Minneapolis, Cleveland, and St. Louis. Recent reports have the field narrowed to Charlotte and St. Louis.
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Dec 21, 2010 13:04:30 GMT -5
OOPS. Looks like I deleted my whole post re: political conventions. Oh well. Probably not important anyway. I'm not retyping it.
Mike Pence is going to make his announcement, whether he is running or not, in January.
Me? I'm pulling for Pence/Ryan 2012. But I probably won't get it.
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Dec 21, 2010 13:07:40 GMT -5
Here's some early number crunching from an operative: www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1210/Reapportionment_costs_Obama_6_leaves_path.html#Another key to all of this is whether the 2012 nominee for the Republicans can energize a ground game. I think Obama won some states just on elbow grease - IN and NC particularly. Energy/historic nature of the election also probably had something to do with it. What is a complete unknown is whether Obama can again tap out those constituencies in the inner cities in NC and elsewhere to make a go of it in traditionally red states.
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Dec 21, 2010 13:14:26 GMT -5
Given the inconveniences of the modern political convention (compared to a few decades ago), I'm of a mind that having a convention in a particular city or state may actually HURT your chances to win that state. Yes, a lot of money comes in, and probably temporary work for some unemployed people, but I think the event location is irrelevant. Other than to indicate....we want to win this state. Not saying you were trying to say otherwise, Jersey, just expressing an opinion. I think it depends on what you do with it. I think most rightly turn away from the parachute-in approach of some of these conventions. Goons and goblins from basement cubicles in DC turn out and then leave, perhaps tipping a waiter or two along the way. There are some examples of doing it right - 2008 Denver seems like a good example. While there was the party get-together feel of the first few nights, the campaign made a conscious effort to fill the stadium with folks from CO and took names/e-mail addresses etc. These folks then turned into the grassroots volunteers for the stretch run of the campaign. CO remained comfortably in the Obama column notwithstanding the Palin announcement a few days later. With some of the smaller cities, like Denver, you also get intense coverage in the local media, which you won't necessarily get in NYC and Philly. This is good and bad - good if you have a local flair to your convention, but bad if folks are creating problems logistically.
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TC
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Post by TC on Dec 21, 2010 14:23:30 GMT -5
Given the inconveniences of the modern political convention (compared to a few decades ago), I'm of a mind that having a convention in a particular city or state may actually HURT your chances to win that state. Pumping a bunch of money, buttons, stickers, and lawn signs into a swing state a few months before the election is not going to hurt you at election time. There's a clear trend (2008 Minneapolis/Denver, 2012 Florida/etc) towards the swing states in the planning. That said you're completely right on how annoying these conventions and the accompanying security and protest element are. I just don't think that affects how people vote though.
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Bando
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Post by Bando on Jan 13, 2011 1:19:58 GMT -5
So at this point in 2007, there were 14 declared presidential candidates. As of yesterday, there's zero (or 1, if you count the incumbent). Now obviously the field was a lot more open then, but still, that's a little weird. Well, now there's 1 (or 2): Herman Cain. I don't know much about him, other than him having a truly excellent last name. Nor do I know how he fits into the field. The general GOP primary rule of thumb is that the nomination goes to whoever's turn it is, and that would favor Palin or Romney. And yes, I'm purposefully bumping B&G posts so none of us have to go on the basketball board.
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Jan 13, 2011 9:14:32 GMT -5
And yes, I'm purposefully bumping B&G posts so none of us have to go on the basketball board. Much needed. I brought my biohazard suit today for when I check things out over there. As for Herman Cain, I never had the opportunity to eat a Godfather's Pizza, so I'm afraid I don't have much of an opinion of him either. ;D I think you can safely bet that Pawlenty is in the field. Romney too, sure. I still think Palin will ultimately not run.
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Jan 13, 2011 14:35:32 GMT -5
What does the primary calendar look like for the Republicans? There's often a guide in there as to who may win, and a lot could have been said about the Dems' calendar in 2008 with the caucuses and proportional assignment of delegates.
If the Republicans keep a winner take all, bet on the candidate with more money. In terms of names, I think Huckabee would present the biggest challenge to Obama based on what is known now, but I think Daniels is emerging in that group as well slowly but surely. Thune I could see as a VP nominee - don't think he has the presence as yet for the primary cycle.
Pawlenty and Barbour have both been awkward in recent weeks, and Romney seems a victim of the HCR debate.
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Elvado
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Post by Elvado on Jan 13, 2011 14:44:18 GMT -5
What does the primary calendar look like for the Republicans? There's often a guide in there as to who may win, and a lot could have been said about the Dems' calendar in 2008 with the caucuses and proportional assignment of delegates. If the Republicans keep a winner take all, bet on the candidate with more money. In terms of names, I think Huckabee would present the biggest challenge to Obama based on what is known now, but I think Daniels is emerging in that group as well slowly but surely. Thune I could see as a VP nominee - don't think he has the presence as yet for the primary cycle. Pawlenty and Barbour have both been awkward in recent weeks, and Romney seems a victim of the HCR debate. Does it really matter? If your man can, as you suggest in the Giffords thread, cause the comatose to open their eyes and wake, he can simply use his divine power to mind meld with the electorate and gain their votes.
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Jan 13, 2011 14:58:39 GMT -5
That was not my comment, and your garbage has run its course.
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Elvado
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Post by Elvado on Jan 13, 2011 15:05:12 GMT -5
That was not my comment, and your garbage has run its course. Nerve hit much?
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kchoya
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Post by kchoya on Jan 13, 2011 15:20:13 GMT -5
That was not my comment, and your garbage has run its course. Do you even pay attention to what you post? Even better that people were there to witness the miracle, and I believe that the timing and who was in the room was no coincidence.
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SSHoya
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Post by SSHoya on Jan 15, 2011 1:03:10 GMT -5
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Jan 23, 2011 17:28:39 GMT -5
Not surprisingly, Mitt Romney won this weekend's straw poll in NH, and it was not particularly close. As of now, it looks like the Republican primary will end up a lot like 2008. I see Huckabee or someone similar winning Iowa and then running into trouble in NH. If Palin is in, I could see her skipping Iowa and NH - a la Giuliani.
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