Boz
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
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Post by Boz on Oct 17, 2008 9:32:53 GMT -5
I don't agree with everything Easterbrook says, but I think he has a lot of good points. I actually think his football opinions can be a bit lazy (especially Stop Me Before I Blitz) and way too anecdotal. They're way too repetitive, as well. He thinks this way about everything, though, and this is why I'm not a fan, Boz. To him, ideas are reasonable and centrist because he agrees with them. He's a great writer but an extremely lazy thinker. Fair enough with regards to this column, but I think if you read his book, he doesn't really come off as a lazy thinker. It is very well researched and pretty insightful. (& I think you might be surprised at some of his ideas, many of which are pretty liberal). He does talk about faith a lot though, so if you're not down with that, it'd probably turn you off.
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Bando
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
I've got some regrets!
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Post by Bando on Oct 17, 2008 12:29:39 GMT -5
He thinks this way about everything, though, and this is why I'm not a fan, Boz. To him, ideas are reasonable and centrist because he agrees with them. He's a great writer but an extremely lazy thinker. Fair enough with regards to this column, but I think if you read his book, he doesn't really come off as a lazy thinker. It is very well researched and pretty insightful. (& I think you might be surprised at some of his ideas, many of which are pretty liberal). He does talk about faith a lot though, so if you're not down with that, it'd probably turn you off. I don't always disagree with his conclusions, but I always don't like the way he comes to them. I don't mind reading about faith, but I do mind him self-righteously asserting his faith tradition as quintessentially American while assailing all other faith traditions as simply crazy.
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Filo
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by Filo on Nov 12, 2008 13:09:49 GMT -5
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Boz
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
123 Fireballs!
Posts: 10,355
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Post by Boz on Nov 12, 2008 14:01:57 GMT -5
Speaking of Wall Street, anyone else following this abysmal idea to get a "Wall Street" sequel out?
You can put this up there with the "Bull Durham" sequel as one of the worst ideas that has ever come out of Hollywood.
What's worse, much as I think Oliver Stone is a tool, he is a good filmmaker and he won't be part of this.
But the worst part of all is the rumor I've heard that they're going to try to bring Gordon Gekko back as some kind of Michael Milken redemption character who will save the US economy this time around.
Good Lord, it's like the 'Greed is Good' speech never happened.
I will not be seeing this movie.
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hifigator
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by hifigator on Nov 12, 2008 14:53:24 GMT -5
Great read Filo
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thebin
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by thebin on Nov 13, 2008 8:32:33 GMT -5
The Lewis piece is a great read. But I wonder if he isn't yet again prematurely calling the end of Wall Street.
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FewFAC
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,032
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Post by FewFAC on Nov 13, 2008 23:15:43 GMT -5
Blue Horseshoe loves...
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Post by williambraskyiii on Nov 20, 2008 17:37:28 GMT -5
Can PGFC please enlighten me as to how much more money I am going to lose in the current bear market? I mean how much more downside could the S&P possibly have?
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thebin
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by thebin on Nov 20, 2008 18:07:45 GMT -5
Can PGFC please enlighten me as to how much more money I am going to lose in the current bear market? I mean how much more downside could the S&P possibly have? You won't lose any if you don't sell. If you have not sold your positions by now, please don't. You will regret it terribly in a couple years.
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Post by williambraskyiii on Nov 20, 2008 18:44:24 GMT -5
no, no, no - haven't sold...although i may sell some losses before end of year for tax purposes...but i want to know if I can long the S&P or is it going to fall another 15%
lowest level since 97? WTF.
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Post by PushyGuyFanClub on Nov 20, 2008 19:27:12 GMT -5
Paraphrasing Keynes: The stock market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
As for where/when the market will stop falling, I have no idea. I thought it would have been several hundred points ago. It's important, however, to note why the market is falling so severely. It's not because the world is going bankrupt, because everyone is selling, or even because the fundamentals have deteriorated beyond recognition. It's because, IMO, people have stopped buying. And when there are no buyers on the other side of an order, stocks gap down. Consider 1) Individual investors are scared witless and sitting out 2) Corporations are hoarding cash because of the credit freeze and not repurchasing shares despite mind-bogglingly cheap valuations 3) Mutual fund managers are selling because (see #1) individuals are scared witless and redeeming (if you read this quarter's set of shareholder letters from fund managers, they're all lamenting redemptions) 4) Levered hedge funds are deleveraging and going to cash because they fear mass redemptions when windows open in Dec/Jan.
So, the market could continue falling, but if you have money to put to work, valuations are compelling enough today to do it. I myself am averaging in on the first of every month into a few stocks I've identified as having superior business prospects/balance sheets. But I've given up calling the bottom (never tried actually).
If you want to go the index route, I'd steer you away fom the S&P, which for all intents and purposes is levered to bunch of low growth companies (and I bet you already have lots of exposure to the US economy), and instead look at VWO (vanguard emering markets index) and EFA (europe/asia/australia). These indexes have been far more volatile than our own because of the flight to safety in equities (which is an illusion as commonly defined), but the Chinese, Brazilian, Indian economies haven't putting up horrible numbers. Brazil set a new retail growth record in October despite its BOVESPA index getting shelled this year by risk averse investors.
So, the conclusion is: I'm putting money to work, but averaging in and focusing on economies that have been oversold compared to our own but have fundamentally been holding up better and have faster rebound potential.
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Post by PushyGuyFanClub on Nov 20, 2008 19:29:07 GMT -5
One other fun fact: There are currently 180 free cash flow positive companies trading on major global exchanges trading at market caps that are less than the net cash on their balance sheets. That's ridiculous. This time last year there was one.
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Post by williambraskyiii on Nov 20, 2008 20:32:52 GMT -5
Thanks PGFC...appreciate your perspective, as always.
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Filo
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,910
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Post by Filo on Dec 12, 2008 9:44:35 GMT -5
Bernard Madoff arrested over alleged $50 billion fraudWow. Apparently there were a lot of wealthy individuals investing with Madoff. Just more great stuff for Wall Street. Just read someone who posted a great quote from Warren Buffett that applies here: It's only when the tide goes out that you learn who's been swimming naked.
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