quickplay
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Post by quickplay on Oct 23, 2015 13:24:26 GMT -5
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kchoya
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Post by kchoya on Oct 23, 2015 13:54:08 GMT -5
So you don't believe in Newtonian mechanics and quantum mechanics. Both proved their worth over and over. Quantum mechanics replaced Newtonian mechanics for small systems (nuclear dimensions and below). How do you think we got to the moon, for example? The scientists and engineers believed in the power of predictive models. Of course, the models which support our physical universe need updating once in a while, but these predictive models, which laid the basis of physics, work pretty well. Perhaps "predictive models" is too broad of a term in the manner in which I used it. Of course, I believe in Newtonian mechanics and quantum mechanics. It's silly for you to suggest otherwise, and you know exactly to what I was referring. Look, we have massive, complex computer models that try to predict the weather three days from now, yet the EURO, NAM and GFS often disagree with each other. To think that we should take climate change predictive models as automatically being more certain in the their predictions seems folly to me.
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quickplay
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
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Post by quickplay on Oct 23, 2015 14:40:55 GMT -5
"Turning ordinary scientific uncertainty into weapons..."
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Nevada Hoya
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Post by Nevada Hoya on Oct 23, 2015 15:12:43 GMT -5
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Nevada Hoya
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Post by Nevada Hoya on Oct 23, 2015 15:16:55 GMT -5
And, of course, the climate models are not nearly so well defined as the models governing the basic laws of physics. And if they involve chaos theory, well that is chaotic. However, the proof of the pudding is in the eating, so when various climate models are predicting the same outcome, and that outcome has come true, I would believe in the predictive power of these various models.
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kchoya
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Post by kchoya on Oct 23, 2015 16:29:19 GMT -5
so when various climate models are predicting the same outcome, and that outcome has come true, I would believe in the predictive power of these various models. Except that's not what has happened.
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kchoya
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Post by kchoya on Oct 23, 2015 16:30:44 GMT -5
"Turning ordinary scientific uncertainty into weapons..." I'm worried about you. You're repeating yourself. I used to think you're just dumb. Now it appears you may have a TBI, causing you to post the same exact words over and over.
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Nevada Hoya
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Post by Nevada Hoya on Oct 23, 2015 17:59:57 GMT -5
so when various climate models are predicting the same outcome, and that outcome has come true, I would believe in the predictive power of these various models. Except that's not what has happened. Maybe the models proposed by the energy companies. That is what happened for very well regarded models.
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quickplay
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Post by quickplay on Oct 23, 2015 20:03:09 GMT -5
Never change KC, I love watching you pretend that your ability to repeat energy industry talking points is somehow a substantive claim about climate change.
Congratulations on your understanding that predictive modeling isn't 100% accurate. Unfortunately, that itself isn't a point. Always adorable to watch useful idiots think they've won a scientific debate with half-clever rhetorical games.
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kchoya
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Post by kchoya on Oct 23, 2015 23:56:43 GMT -5
Never change KC, I love watching you pretend that your ability to repeat energy industry talking points is somehow a substantive claim about climate change. Congratulations on your understanding that predictive modeling isn't 100% accurate. Unfortunately, that itself isn't a point. Always adorable to watch useful idiots think they've won a scientific debate with half-clever rhetorical games. I will give you credit for being in the arena and not just standing on the sidelines and "liking" posts like WBH.
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SaxaCD
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Post by SaxaCD on Oct 24, 2015 1:54:53 GMT -5
Except that's not what has happened. Maybe the models proposed by the energy companies. That is what happened for very well regarded models. Of course, convergence is even easier when data is fudged to conform with the expectations.
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hoyainspirit
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Post by hoyainspirit on Oct 24, 2015 9:23:26 GMT -5
Maybe the models proposed by the energy companies. That is what happened for very well regarded models. Of course, convergence is even easier when data is fudged to conform with the expectations. Surely you don't believe that some sort of collusion is happening, across the many studies done independently of each other, over the course of decades, which draw the same conclusions. That's about as believable as OJ didn't do it.
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tashoya
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Post by tashoya on Oct 24, 2015 21:17:39 GMT -5
Science, in theory and practice, can be considered skeptical at its very core and, intellectually, a healthy amount of skepticism is a good thing. The empirical evidence is clear and peer-reviewed studies have continually confirmed that evidence. As such, the time for the intellectual skepticism has passed. As others have mentioned, the debate should have moved passed is it real or isn't it and whether or not it's largely due to human activity. It's difficult to believe that scientists first argued about the nature/effect of human activity on the climate over 120 years ago and some still feel there hasn't been statistically significant evidence to support that theory.
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EasyEd
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Post by EasyEd on Nov 5, 2015 19:44:32 GMT -5
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quickplay
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
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Post by quickplay on Nov 5, 2015 20:09:01 GMT -5
Nothing like an energy industry paid hack to put it all in perspective...
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SaxaCD
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Post by SaxaCD on Nov 5, 2015 21:26:14 GMT -5
Nothing like an energy industry paid hack to put it all in perspective... ...And the knee jerks, as if on cue!
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quickplay
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
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Post by quickplay on Nov 5, 2015 22:15:47 GMT -5
At this point I really am repeating the same thing, but it's just the same page out of the same book, time after time.
Industry-funded propagandists attempt to create doubt by disingenuously exploiting unknowns and the difficulty of prediction that comes with science itself. So yeah, I think it matters that the guy sounding the alarm right now is literally paid to say these types of things. His effort to contextualize it is worth as much as any other paid spokesman's.
If these adjustments require a large change in the approach to mitigating climate change, I don't think this is the guy to present that information.
Sorry for my knee-jerk reaction to a literal shill. Who needs context??
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kchoya
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Post by kchoya on Nov 5, 2015 23:49:18 GMT -5
At this point I really am repeating the same thing, but it's just the same page out of the same book, time after time. Industry-funded propagandists attempt to create doubt by disingenuously exploiting unknowns and the difficulty of prediction that comes with science itself. So yeah, I think it matters that the guy sounding the alarm right now is literally paid to say these types of things. His effort to contextualize it is worth as much as any other paid spokesman's. If these adjustments require a large change in the approach to mitigating climate change, I don't think this is the guy to present that information. Sorry for my knee-jerk reaction to a literal shill. Who needs context?? You act as though unknowns and the difficulty of prediction is meaningless.
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hoyainspirit
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by hoyainspirit on Nov 6, 2015 2:15:42 GMT -5
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SaxaCD
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Post by SaxaCD on Nov 6, 2015 7:01:14 GMT -5
NASA report denier!
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