DanMcQ
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Post by DanMcQ on Jun 24, 2006 23:16:13 GMT -5
You'll find Papi next to the phrase in the dictionary.
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Gold Hoya
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Post by Gold Hoya on Jun 25, 2006 18:49:16 GMT -5
Nearly 20 hours and SFHoya hasn't posted a long analysis proving that clutch hitting doesn't exist? He must be on vacation or something.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Jun 25, 2006 22:01:51 GMT -5
Nearly 20 hours and SFHoya hasn't posted a long analysis proving that clutch hitting doesn't exist? He must be on vacation or something. My understanding of the sabermatrician's view on clutch hitting is that they can't prove it exists, but that doesn't mean that it does not exist, just that they can't figure it out.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Jun 26, 2006 0:26:22 GMT -5
Clutch hitting exists.
Very, very few players have performed better in the so-called "clutch" situations over their career than in "non-clutch" situations. As the sample size grows, almost every player regresses to their averages in clutch situations. What does that tell you? It tells me that it really isn't a characteristic of the player -- there are no, or very, very few, clutch hitters. Either that, or it doesn't mean much.
There are a myriad of problems with trying to measure "clutch": sample size; defining what clutch is are two of the biggest. But this is the question I always ask:
Dan McQ, do you think David Ortiz isn't trying in his other ABs?
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DanMcQ
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Post by DanMcQ on Jun 26, 2006 8:29:45 GMT -5
But this is the question I always ask: Dan McQ, do you think David Ortiz isn't trying in his other ABs? Nope. The evidence (what my eyes have seen) would argue to the contrary. He gets plenty of hits in all situations and his approach seems to be the same every time. His penchant for coming through with dramatic hits in 'clutch' situations (loosely defined as those that are game winners, primarily to regain or take the lead late in games) is pretty remarkable. There is some discussion this year that his average is down because more teams are employing the wierd shift and taking away some of his singles. www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2006/06/26/belting_out_a_nice_tune/
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Jun 26, 2006 9:28:30 GMT -5
Do you think he performs better in clutch situations? Michael Jordan was "clutch" but that was simply that he was really freaking good. Over his career, I believe his FG % was the same in the last two minutes as the rest of the game.
If your definition of clutch is simply performing well in important situations, well, sure, Ortiz is clutch. But that's because he's one of the best hitters in baseball right now. That doesn't mean there is some mysterious fifth gear that Ortiz can shift into only when the game is on the line, though.
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DanMcQ
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Post by DanMcQ on Jun 26, 2006 10:59:37 GMT -5
re: mysterious 5th gear - I think he has it, but I'm far too lazy to do a SFHoya99-ian statistical analysis on it. He seems to have an extra focus in game-ending situations.
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Gold Hoya
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Post by Gold Hoya on Jun 26, 2006 11:22:24 GMT -5
Perhaps "in the clutch" in Papi's case is really "runners in scoring position, late in the game, when teams can't employ the shift on him."
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DanMcQ
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Post by DanMcQ on Jun 26, 2006 11:30:02 GMT -5
Perhaps "in the clutch" in Papi's case is really "runners in scoring position, late in the game, when teams can't employ the shift on him." Except that most of the hits in those situations have been out of the park - in which case the shift is meaningless.
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miamihoya
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Post by miamihoya on Jun 26, 2006 12:14:22 GMT -5
I agree that obviously Ortiz is a great hitter in any situation, but you just dont see this from every "great-hitter". Bonds is probably the greatest hitter of all-time (steroids issue, aside), yet how often do you hear people refer to him as "clutch" or hitting walk-off homers. Same goes for Pujols. With Ortiz, it seems like every week he is coming up big in those situations, especially in the playoffs. I dont know the whole science or statistical side of it, but if i was the manager of a team and I had to pick one guy to step to the plate in a tied game in the bottom of the ninth, i know Big Papi would be my choice.
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miamihoya
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Post by miamihoya on Jun 26, 2006 17:24:29 GMT -5
Well there ya go again...Ortiz had another walk-off RBI single today
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DanMcQ
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Post by DanMcQ on Jun 26, 2006 19:06:35 GMT -5
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Jun 27, 2006 0:55:46 GMT -5
Bonds got labelled as a playoff choker early in his career, and no matter how many clutch hits he had, he could never shake it. Even when he tore up the playoffs in hs 'roid days. Plus, he was always walked.
Pujols was called clutch all last post-season. He just doesn't play in Boston, so the media isn't obsessed with him. When they showed the stat for most game winning hits over the last few years, Pujols was second to Ortiz. Oddly, if anyone is clutch, it should be #3, Orlando Cabrera, who has nearly as many game winning hits as Ortiz, but isn't nearly close to the same quality hitter. Or maybe it has to do with opportunities as well - players on good offenses and mediocre staffs!
Anyway, maybe Ortiz is one of the very few guys who really does perform better in situations of high importance. I think George Brett, for example, was much better with RISP over his career. And I think some pitchers are so good they can afford to take some hitters off and try harder with men on base.
But the facts remain: almost no one shows "clutch hitting" as a year in, year out repeatable skill. People who hit lots of HRs tend to hit lots of HRs next year. But people who hit better in close and late situations or with RISP than they do in non-clutch situations aren't more likely to hit that way next year. Simple fact.
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Post by AustinHoya03 on Jun 27, 2006 0:55:53 GMT -5
Bonds is probably the greatest hitter of all-time (steroids issue, aside), yet how often do you hear people refer to him as "clutch" or hitting walk-off homers. Same goes for Pujols.
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DanMcQ
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Post by DanMcQ on Jun 27, 2006 6:04:37 GMT -5
But the facts remain: almost no one shows "clutch hitting" as a year in, year out repeatable skill. People who hit lots of HRs tend to hit lots of HRs next year. But people who hit better in close and late situations or with RISP than they do in non-clutch situations aren't more likely to hit that way next year. Simple fact. Agreed. However, Ortiz is on a pretty consistent 2 and a half year streak of clutch hitting. It is uncanny how many late game situations he's at the plate and what a high percentage of times he delivers. I can only remember 2 or 3 where he has not during this stretch.
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DanMcQ
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Post by DanMcQ on Jun 27, 2006 18:54:50 GMT -5
The X-factor missing from the discussion thus far (and appropriately mentioned by Curt Schilling this morning on the radio): Manny Ramirez batting 4th. Manny increases the chance the opposition will pitch to Ortiz, although (like last night) the pitches are not often meatballs in the heart of the plate.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Jun 27, 2006 21:29:31 GMT -5
Ortiz may be one of those few guys. But I just get all itchy hearing clutch because it is too easy to get labelled clutch or choker and almost impossible to lose the label.
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DanMcQ
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Post by DanMcQ on Jun 27, 2006 23:00:03 GMT -5
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DanMcQ
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Post by DanMcQ on Jul 31, 2006 22:42:09 GMT -5
Two more this week: tonight's 3-run walkoff HR and last week's RBI single to the opposite field in the 11th against the shift.
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Hank Scorpio
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Post by Hank Scorpio on Aug 1, 2006 9:22:44 GMT -5
That ran Ortiz's total to 13 walkoff hits in the past 3 years.
Albert Pujols has 9 walkoff hits in the same time span.
Orlando Cabrera ranks 3rd with 7.
Draw your own conclusions, I am in line with SFHoya.
Too bad David Ortiz can't pitch, otherwise I'd be worried about the Red Sox winning the division.
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