2012 BET Bracket Update

Currently in 5th, until about 9pm tonight, at which point we will have the same record as #4 USF who we own the tiebreaker against.

GO Cuse.

Would also like some help from WVU beating ND because that would bring us to w/in one loss and we have a game with them upcoming.

And looking a bit closer, we could even leap Marquette for #2 if we take care of business bc we have them again. But in addition to us, they have @wvu and @cincy.

Thus, we win out, we are likely #2. Ill take it.

Go HOYAS.

we must just win ALL i have fooled myself into thinking others may help us WE MUST TAKE CHARGE OF OUR OWN DESTINY ive been disappointed too much this year rooting for upsets of people in the top four or eight too many ot games blown 20 points leads over our top eight competition so HOYAS PLAY HARD FOR FORTY MINUTES ONLY YOU DECIDE YOUR DESTINY NOW cause its FEBRUARY HOYAS TIME WRIGHT NOW

I did an updated analysis after our win and USF's squeaker over Cincy. 12-6 might be enough but it's not guaranteed. Here's what I come up with - I think it's right, but let me know if there are mistakes.

First, if we go 1-1 over our last two games, that makes us 12-6 in the conference. Remember you need finish in the top 4 in the conference to get a double bye.

Syracuse (clinched) and Marquette would probably be the 1 and 2 seeds. We could finish 3rd, 4th, or 5th. 3rd is only possible if ND loses its last game at home to Providence. That’s unlikely but anything can happen, etc. Assume for now they win; if so, they can’t be caught for 3rd.

Only two teams can catch us for 4th: USF and Cincy. Both must go 2-0 to do so.

USF is currently tied with us at 11-5, but we have the tiebreaker over them since we won the only meeting this year. They therefore need to win at Louisville on Wednesday AND beat WV at home on Saturday to get to 13-5 and take 4th (they’d then be tied with ND, but ND owns the tiebreaker).

Cincy is currently 10-6. 2-0 gets them to 12-6, but they own the tiebreaker over us since they won the matchup in Verizon this year. To get there, they have to beat Marquette at home on Wednesday and win at Villanova on Saturday.

Chances of either team going 2-0 are probably less than 50% – they’d have to win on another Big East team’s Senior Night when seeding is likely on the line for both teams. USF in particular has not beaten anyone decent on the road this year. But it’s entirely possible.

USF beating Cincy today was huge. I’d much rather take my chances with either team going 2-0 than with Cincy only having to go 1-1.

Executive Summary:

Beat Notre Dame. Root for Louisville and Marquette on Wednesday. If all three results go our way, the game @ Marquette is just for seeding. And to be honest I wouldn’t mind being #4. I really want that rematch with Syracuse.

(stop here if you don't want nerdy analysis of tiebreaker scenarios)

If ND loses to Providence, then they are also at 12-6, and things can get complicated. If there’s a 2-way tie at 12-6, we take it over ND because we have the tiebreaker (again assuming we beat them but los to Marquette). If there are more teams involved, it gets complicated (see below). You should care about this because it then becomes possible for us to get the #4 seed over ND even if USF or Cincy win out.

The Big East resolves 3+ team ties by treating the teams as a mini-conference. (http://www.bigeast.org/fls/19400/pdfs/men_basketball/tie-breaker10.pdf)

We do great under this system if we beat ND. It’s made much less complex by the fact that all the relevant teams (ND, USF, Cincy, us) only play each other once and, with one exception, those games have already been played.

The only mini-conference tiebreakers that matter for our double bye are among 12-6 teams. In addition to the Hoyas (11-5), only ND (12-4), USF (11-5), Cincy (10-6), and Louisville (10-6) can finish 12-6. (The system might also be used to break our ties for 5th or 6th place, but I’m assuming you don’t care about those).

In a 3-way tie with USF and ND, we would be the 3 seed:
3: Hoyas: 2-0
4: ND: 1-1
5: USF: 0-2

In a 3-way tie with ND and Louisville, we would be the 3 or 4 seed:
3/4: Hoyas: 2-0
4/5: ND: 1-1
5/6: Louisville: 0-2

Here's how this works. USF and Louisville play each other on Wednesday, and Louisville must win to finish 12-6. If they do, USF obviously can't win out. If USF wins, however, then goes on to beat Nova on Saturday, they will be 13-5, taking the 3 or 4 seed. But this doesn't necessarily push us out of the #4 - if ND loses to us and to Providence, their pulled back into the pack. They don't have the tiebreakers to keep up and fall all the way back into the single bye (heartbreak for the Breyniacs).

In a 3-way tie with Cincy and ND, we would be the 4 or 5 seed:

3/4: Cincy: 2-0
4/5: Hoyas: 1-1
5/6: ND: 0-2

There's a caveat here though - this scenario can happen if USF goes 2-0 OR if they go 0-2. if USF goes 2-0, they finish 13-5 and take the 3 seed, pushing the mini-conference down a slot and, therefore, pushing us out of a double bye. Note that there are only two scenarios where this is possible, since Louisville must beat USF to go 12-6 and get into the tiebreaker.

In a 4-way tie with Cincy, USF, and ND, we would be the 4 seed:
3: Cincy: 2-1 (win tiebreaker)
4: Hoyas: 2-1
5: ND: 1-2 (win tiebreaker but still miss out on double bye)
6: USF: 1-2

In a 4-way tie with Cincy, Louisville, and ND, we would be the 4 seed:
3/4: Cincy: 3-0 (win tiebreaker)
4/5: Hoyas: 2-1
5/6: ND: 1-2 (win tiebreaker but still miss out on double bye)
6/7: Louisville: 0-3

Again, USF is left out of this scenario if they go 2-0 or if they go 0-2. Winning out gets them the double bye and pushes out the Hoyas. If they go 1-1, they’re in the mix. They do that either by beating Louisville and pushing them down to 11-7 (previous scenario) OR by losing to Louisville and beating WV at home, creating a….
A 5-way tie (!), in which we would be the 4 seed:

3: Cincy: 3-1 (win tiebreaker)
4: Hoyas: 3-1
5: ND: 2-2
6: Louisville: 1-3 (win tiebreaker)
7: USF: 1-3

Note that in both the scenarios where we do not get a double bye, it's due to losing a tiebreaker with Cincy AND USF winning out and taking the 3 seed. That means:


If we beat ND and they lose to Providence, we are assured a double bye unless Cincy and USF BOTH go 2-0. So we should still root against these teams.

A final mini-conference is possible if we go 1-1 by losing to ND and beating Marquette. This guarantees ND will get a double bye (since they must go 0-2 to lose it), meaning there is only one left. If Cincy goes 2-0 and USF 1-1, they and the Hoyas are in a 3-way tie. But all three teams are tied at 1-1! The next tiebreaker is record vs. the best team in the conference (Syracuse), then the next best team, etc. This will take some time to figure out...